Capgemini sees $230bn of bank payments revenue at risk from stablecoins
Capgemini’s own corporate survey finds most large companies would still choose a bank for tokenized payments at equal cost. The question for integrators is where bank budgets go while that preference holds
- Some 71% of corporates would choose a bank over a fintech for tokenized payments at equal cost and quality.
- Cross-border payments fail 74% of the corporates surveyed on speed, cost or predictability.
- Only 21% of banks are scaling one of the new instruments; 79% are still evaluating.
- Leaders expect to offset lost transaction revenue within 15 months, against 25 for the rest.
- A cross-border B2B payment takes about 3.5 days end to end and costs around 2% of its value.
For technology firms selling into banks, the spending signal is in the controls and monitoring around new payment instruments rather than the instruments themselves. Sales teams should prioritize the minority already scaling, who buy first and fast, and treat the evaluating majority as a later, slower market. The skills gap among the leaders suggests the scarcest thing to sell is people who can deliver tokenization work, so hiring and training may matter more than product.
“The payments industry is entering its most significant period of disruption since the emergence of digital banking.”Jeroen Hölscher, global head of payment services, Capgemini
Capgemini published its World Payments Report 2027 on 24 September, warning that stablecoins, tokenized deposits and wholesale central bank digital currencies could take about 4% of global payments volume by 2030 and put $230bn (£170bn) of bank payments revenue at risk. The revenue at stake is high-margin: foreign exchange spreads, correspondent banking, float income and processing fees.
The forecast rests on Capgemini’s own May and June 2026 research: 1,110 corporates with revenues above $1bn (£750m), polled with INJ Partners, plus 300 bank executives across nine markets including the UK. Capgemini sells payments transformation work to those banks, so the alarm suits it. Only 32% of the companies polled are satisfied with their primary bank, more than a third (36%) of their business-to-business (B2B) payment volume already runs through non-banks, and nearly 60% would buy stablecoin services elsewhere if their bank lags. Finextra reported the study on 28 September as a threat to banks’ B2B revenue pools.
Where the leading banks are spending
Capgemini divides banks into a leader minority already scaling one of the new instruments and a mainstream majority still evaluating. Leaders spend on the plumbing around the coin: they are 1.5 times ahead on cross-network transaction monitoring and 1.2 times more likely to run real-time anti-money laundering (AML) and know-your-customer (KYC) checks inside the payment flow. Executives name tokenized deposits as the top near-term priority because they stay on the balance sheet and fit existing rules. A third (33%) of leaders plan to shape how the market works; 40% of mainstream banks say they will react. Only 56% of leaders say they have the talent for digital assets and tokenization.
Sources
- Capgemini, “Banks risk losing $230 billion in payments revenue as stablecoins and tokenized deposits go mainstream”, press release, 24 September 2026. https://www.capgemini.com/news/press-releases/banks-risk-losing-230-billion-in-payments-revenue-as-stablecoins-and-tokenized-deposits-go-mainstream/
- Finextra, “New forms of intelligent money set to hit traditional bank B2B revenue streams”, 28 September 2026. https://www.finextra.com/newsarticle/48485/new-forms-of-intelligent-money-set-to-hit-traditional-bank-b2b-revenue-streams
- Capgemini Research Institute, “World Payments Report 2027: the rise of accelerated intelligent money in B2B payments”, report page, September 2026. https://www.capgemini.com/insights/research-library/world-payments-report/
