Capgemini sees $230bn of bank payments revenue at risk from stablecoins
Capgemini’s own corporate survey finds most large companies would still choose a bank for tokenized payments at equal cost. The question for integrators is where bank budgets go while that preference holds
- Some 71% of corporates would choose a bank over a fintech for tokenized payments at equal cost and quality.
- Cross-border payments fail 74% of the corporates surveyed on speed, cost or predictability.
- Only 21% of banks are scaling one of the new instruments; 79% are still evaluating.
- Leaders expect to offset lost transaction revenue within 15 months, against 25 for the rest.
- A cross-border B2B payment takes about 3.5 days end to end and costs around 2% of its value.
For integrators and vendors selling into UK financial services, the budget is not in the coin. It is in the controls around it: cross-network transaction monitoring, AML and KYC checks that run inside the payment, and treasury visibility for corporates without a live cash position. The scaling minority spends first and expects delivery in months; the 40% of mainstream banks that plan only to react will buy late, and they are the resale route for fintech platforms needing a bank-grade partner. Nearly half the leaders lack tokenization skills, which is services margin for whoever can staff it.
“The payments industry is entering its most significant period of disruption since the emergence of digital banking.”Jeroen Hölscher, global head of payment services, Capgemini
Capgemini published its World Payments Report 2027 on 24 September, warning that stablecoins, tokenized deposits and wholesale central bank digital currencies could take about 4% of global payments volume by 2030 and put $230bn (£170bn) of bank payments revenue at risk. The revenue at stake is high-margin: foreign exchange spreads, correspondent banking, float income and processing fees.
The forecast rests on Capgemini’s own May and June 2026 research: 1,110 corporates with revenues above $1bn (£750m), polled with INJ Partners, plus 300 bank executives across nine markets including the UK. Capgemini sells payments transformation work to those banks, so the alarm suits it. Only 32% of the companies polled are satisfied with their primary bank, more than a third (36%) of their business-to-business (B2B) payment volume already runs through non-banks, and nearly 60% would buy stablecoin services elsewhere if their bank lags. Finextra reported the study on 28 September as a threat to banks’ B2B revenue pools.
Where the leading banks are spending
Capgemini divides banks into a leader minority already scaling one of the new instruments and a mainstream majority still evaluating. Leaders spend on the plumbing around the coin: they are 1.5 times ahead on cross-network transaction monitoring and 1.2 times more likely to run real-time anti-money laundering (AML) and know-your-customer (KYC) checks inside the payment flow. Executives name tokenized deposits as the top near-term priority because they stay on the balance sheet and fit existing rules. A third (33%) of leaders plan to shape how the market works; 40% of mainstream banks say they will react. Only 56% of leaders say they have the talent for digital assets and tokenization.
