How the Analyst Index works

Who we track

We track named analysts at research firms and independent analysts who publish market forecasts. We rank people, not firms. Vendor staff, investors and journalists are not included. For bank and broker analysts, we count only their forecasts for markets and industries, not share price targets.

If an analyst moves to a new firm, their record moves with them. If they leave research for another role, their earlier calls stay on the Index.

What counts as a prediction

A call goes on the Index only if it passes all of these tests:

• It looks forward. It says what will happen, not what has happened.
• It is the analyst's own call. They said it, wrote it or presented it as the named speaker.
• It is committed. "Will", "expect" and "should" count. "Could" and "might" do not.
• It can be checked. A number, a share, a ranking or a clear event that public evidence can settle.
• It has a deadline. Either stated, or set by a fixed reading of phrases such as "next year" or "by 2027". Calls with no deadline ("eventually", "over time") are left out.
• It is in scope. Public, about business or technology, and made in the last five years.

How we judge a call

Each call gets one of five verdicts when its deadline passes: Right, Mostly right, Half right, Mostly wrong or Wrong.

• We hold analysts to what they first said. If a call names a figure, we judge that figure, even if the firm later revises its own numbers.
• We use the first published result. The actual is the first full-year figure published after the deadline, not later restatements.
• The bar is high. A number forecast has to land very close to the result to count as Right. Getting the direction right is not enough on its own. A call that a market will pass a figure is judged against that figure, and missing by a long way in either direction is a miss.
• Independent evidence comes first. That means company results, filings and other firms' data. Where the only evidence is the analyst's own firm's figures, we still give a verdict and say so on the page.
• Calls are scored only once they can be. Until the deadline passes, a call is shown as pending. A call can be scored early only if the outcome can no longer change.

How analysts are ranked

An analyst's accuracy is the average of their verdicts, shown as a percentage.

• Bolder calls count for more. Long-range calls count for more than short-range ones. Calls that were close to certain when made count for less, and so do vague trend calls.
• A handful of calls can't top the table. An analyst is ranked once at least three of their calls have been scored. Until they have a longer record, their score is pulled towards the average.

Checks

Every verdict is reviewed independently before it is published, and sources are checked. We review open calls every quarter and score them as their deadlines pass.

Right of reply and corrections

Analysts can reply to any verdict on their own page. To do so, they create an account, which we verify. If an analyst believes a verdict is wrong, they can send us evidence. If we change a verdict, the page shows a dated correction.