Alan Weckel

What happened. Dell'Oro: Ethernet took more than two-thirds of switch sales in AI back-end (scale-out) networks in 4Q25 and for full-year 2025, more than double InfiniBand. Ethernet was clearly the dominant scale-out fabric by the end of 2025. The second half of the sentence (an early 1.6T ramp) was not scored. Sources: delloro.com.

Source: Ethernet AI Networking Revenue Surges over 150% Y/Y, Bandwidth over 200% Y/Y in 2024 (650 Group blog, by Alan Weckel)

What happened. Dell'Oro: worldwide data-centre capex up 57% in 2025, with Top 4 US cloud data-centre capex up 76%, both records. Capex hit records in 2025. Sources: delloro.com.

Source: US Hyperscalers Provide Record Data Center CAPEX Guidance in 2025 (650 Group release)

What happened. IDC: datacentre Ethernet switch revenue grew 53.5% to a record $32.5bn in 2025. Dell'Oro: Ethernet switch sales in AI back-end networks more than tripled in 2025. 2025 set records for both datacentre Ethernet and AI networking. Sources: idc.com, delloro.com.

Source: Data Center AI Networking to Surge to Nearly $20B in 2025, According to 650 Group

What happened. IDC: non-datacentre (campus and branch) Ethernet switch revenue grew 9.1% in 2025, after falling 20% in 2024. The campus market returned to growth in 2025. Sources: idc.com.

Source: Campus Switch Market to Enter Significant Digestion Period in 2024; According to 650 Group

What happened. IDC put non-datacentre (campus and branch) Ethernet switch revenue down 20.0% in 2024. Dell'Oro reported campus switch sales down about 20%. The campus market contracted sharply in 2024. Sources: idc.com, delloro.com.

Source: Campus Switch Market to Enter Significant Digestion Period in 2024; According to 650 Group

What happened. Cisco announced its first smart switches (N9300, with AMD Pensando DPUs) in February 2025, shipping from April 2025. No DPU-based smart-switch launches by Arista, Juniper or Dell were found for 2024. HPE Aruba's CX 10000 had been on sale since 2021-22. None of the four named vendors released a smart switch in 2024. Cisco came closest, in early 2025. Under the year-call ruling Cisco's 2025 launch would be one year off, but the call was that most of the four would release, and only Cisco did, so it stays Wrong. Sources: newsroom.cisco.com, heise.de.

Source: AMD/Pensando Highlight Gains in Smartswitch Market (650 Group blog, by Alan Weckel)

What happened. AWS revenue growth slowed to 13% in 2023 ($90.8bn), from 29% in 2022. Azure and Google Cloud growth also slowed. IaaS growth clearly slowed in 2023. Sources: ir.aboutamazon.com.

Source: US Hyperscalers Cloud CAPEX to Prioritize AI in 2023 (650 Group release)

What happened. Calendar-2023 cash capex for Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta fell about 2.5% combined ($151.1bn to $147.2bn, from company filings). Amazon and Meta cut; Microsoft (+42%) and Alphabet (+2%) raised theirs. Dell'Oro put worldwide data-centre capex up 4% in 2023. Combined US hyperscaler capex did fall slightly in 2023. But the cut was small, two of the four raised spending, and wider data-centre capex grew. Sources: delloro.com.

Source: What Do Recent Tech Layoffs and 2023 Hyperscaler CAPEX Have in Common? (650 Group blog, by Alan Weckel)

What happened. IDC: worldwide Ethernet switch revenue grew 18.7% in 2022 to $36.5bn, with datacentre up 22.6% and non-datacentre up 15.7%. Both main segments grew by double digits in 2022. Sources: idc.com.

Source: Ethernet Switch Market Reaches New All-Time High in 3Q21, According to 650 Group