- 48%
- Accuracy
- 29 of 41
- Analyst ranking
- 11
- Predictions scored
- 0
- Still to fall due
Mostly wrong · 25%rapid changes in market dynamics have led TrendForce to revise its forecast, shifting from an anticipated price increase to a projected decline, with the first half of 2025 expected to see a particularly pronounced drop.
What happened. Conventional DRAM contract prices did fall in 1Q25 (DRAM revenue -5.5% QoQ), but prices rose from 2Q25 and surged in the second half; TrendForce reported 3Q25 DRAM revenue up 30.9% and 4Q25 up 29.4% on the price rally, so 2025 prices ended well above 2024. The first-quarter drop happened, but the headline call of falling DRAM prices in 2025 was wrong: prices rose sharply over the year. Sources: trendforce.com, trendforce.com, trendforce.com, trendforce.com.
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on TrendForce’s own figures.
Right · 100%while DRAM prices have shown signs of weakness over the past two quarters, the overall average selling price is expected to rise by 2025.
What happened. DRAM prices fell in 1Q25, then rose: TrendForce put 3Q25 conventional DRAM contract prices up 10-15% (15-20% including HBM) and further rises in 4Q25, and quarterly DRAM revenue climbed from US$27.0bn in 1Q25 to US$41.4bn in 3Q25, with 4Q25 up another 29.4% on the price rally. DRAM average selling prices were clearly higher across 2025 than in 2024, as called. Sources: trendforce.com, trendforce.com, trendforce.com.
Paraphrased. Source: [News] Morgan Stanley Predicts DRAM Winter, but TrendForce Remains Less Pessimistic (TrendForce News)
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on TrendForce’s own figures.
Mostly wrong · 25%leading to a more moderated QoQ price increase of 3-8% for both DRAM and NAND Flash contract prices for 2Q24.
What happened. TrendForce's 2Q24 NAND Flash revenue release said NAND Flash ASP increased by 15% QoQ in 2Q24. Midpoint +5.5% against an actual ASP rise of 15%, a 9.5-point miss. Sources: trendforce.com.
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on TrendForce’s own figures.
Mostly wrong · 25%leading to a more moderated QoQ price increase of 3-8% for both DRAM and NAND Flash contract prices for 2Q24.
What happened. TrendForce's 2Q24 DRAM revenue release said Q2 contract prices saw a final adjustment of 13%-18%. Midpoint +5.5% against a final +15.5%, a 10-point miss. Sources: trendforce.com.
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on TrendForce’s own figures.
Mostly wrong · 25%DRAM prices, for instance, are projected to see a quarterly surge of about 3-8%.
What happened. By 4 December 2023, with most 4Q23 contracts set, TrendForce put 4Q23 DRAM contract price rises at about 13-18%; its 4Q23 revenue release credited a 29.6% revenue jump to rising prices and volume. No later single 4Q23 figure was published. Midpoint +5.5% against TrendForce's late-quarter figure of about +15.5%, a 10-point miss. The outcome is TrendForce's estimate from the last month of the quarter, not a post-quarter final. Sources: trendforce.com, trendforce.com.
Source: Q4 DRAM Contract Prices Set to Rise, with Estimated Quarterly Increase of 3-8%, Says TrendForce
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on TrendForce’s own figures.
Half right · 50%the QoQ decline in DRAM prices are projected to shrink to around 13~18% for 1Q23.
What happened. TrendForce's March 2023 release reported that the ASP of DRAM plunged 20% in 1Q23. Midpoint -15.5% against an actual -20%, a 4.5-point miss. Sources: trendforce.com.
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on TrendForce’s own figures.
Mostly right · 75%This situation will cause 3Q22 DRAM pricing to drop from the previous 3~8% to nearly 10% QoQ.
What happened. TrendForce's 3Q22 DRAM revenue release said the QoQ decline in DRAM contract prices widened to 10~15% in 3Q22. About -10% against an actual midpoint of -12.5%, a 2.5-point miss. Sources: trendforce.com.
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on TrendForce’s own figures.
Mostly wrong · 25%This is the primary reason for a 3-8% drop in DRAM prices in 3Q22
What happened. TrendForce's 3Q22 DRAM revenue release said the QoQ decline in DRAM contract prices widened to 10~15% in 3Q22. Midpoint -5.5% against an actual midpoint of -12.5%, a 7-point miss. Sources: trendforce.com.
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on TrendForce’s own figures.
Mostly right · 75%NAND Flash Pricing Set to Spike 5-10% in Q2 Due to Material Contamination at WDC and Kioxia
What happened. TrendForce later reported that NAND Flash contract pricing rose by approximately 3-8% in 2Q22 (industry ASP +2.3%). Midpoint 7.5% against an actual midpoint of 5.5%, a 2-point miss. Sources: trendforce.com.
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on TrendForce’s own figures.
Mostly wrong · 25%TrendForce thus expects NAND Flash revenue to have more room for growth and reach US$74.19 billion in 2022, a 7.4% YoY increase.
What happened. TrendForce's first-published quarterly NAND Flash revenue figures for 2022 were US$17.92bn (1Q), US$18.12bn (2Q), US$13.71bn (3Q) and US$10.29bn (4Q), a total of about US$60.0bn, down roughly 13% on 2021. US$74.19bn was about 24% above the US$60.0bn actual, just inside the 25% band; the growth direction was wrong. Baseline is the 2021 level implied by the release's +7.4%. Sources: trendforce.com, trendforce.com, trendforce.com, trendforce.com.
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on TrendForce’s own figures.
Half right · 50%Annual DRAM revenue for 2022 is expected to reach US$91.54 billion, which represents a slight YoY increase of 0.3%.
What happened. TrendForce's first-published quarterly DRAM revenue figures for 2022 were US$24.03bn (1Q), US$25.59bn (2Q), US$18.19bn (3Q) and US$12.28bn (4Q), a total of about US$80.1bn, roughly 12% below 2021 rather than up 0.3%. The US$91.54bn level was about 14% above the US$80.1bn actual, which is within the 25% band, although the direction (slight growth) was wrong. Baseline is the 2021 level implied by the release's +0.3%. Sources: trendforce.com, trendforce.com, trendforce.com, trendforce.com.
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on TrendForce’s own figures.