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Jeff Pollard
Analyst Index · Cybersecurity

Jeff Pollard

VP, Principal Analyst, Forrester
37%
Accuracy
14 of 14
Analyst ranking
3
Predictions scored
2
Still to fall due
3 wrong
Scored predictions3
Wrong · 0%Expect three cyber insurers to acquire MDR providersCybersecurity · made Dec 2022 · due Dec 2023

What happened. One clear case in 2023: Zurich Holding Company of America bought SpearTip, whose services include managed detection and response with a security operations centre, folding it into Zurich Resilience Solutions (announced 14 Aug 2023). No other insurer purchase of an MDR provider in 2023 was found. Acrisure bought two MSPs in 2022, Brazilian cyber MGA Bluecyber announced its purchase of MDR platform Ismac.io in March 2024, and Coalition bought Wirespeed in Nov 2025, all outside 2023. One insurer bought an MDR provider in 2023 (Zurich/SpearTip) against the three called: a clear miss. Sources: carriermanagement.com, zurichna.com, lifeinsuranceinternational.com, theinsurer.com.

Paraphrased. Source: Forrester analysts share 5 shocking cybersecurity predictions for 2023 (VentureBeat)

Specific · counts 1Medium confidence
Wrong · 0%With the explosion of investment activity in cybersecurity, we expect “accounting irregularities” will bring at least one cybersecurity vendor down in 2022.Cybersecurity · made Oct 2021 · due Dec 2022

What happened. No cybersecurity vendor was brought down by an accounting scandal in 2022. The year’s distress was layoffs at well-funded vendors such as Lacework, Cybereason and OneTrust, which Pollard’s own June 2022 post put down to funding drying up, not fraud. The named event, a vendor collapse caused by accounting irregularities in 2022, did not happen. The NS8 fraud collapse was in 2020, outside the year. Sources: forrester.com.

Source: Predictions 2022: Continued Uncertainty Forces Attention On Securing Relationships (Forrester blog)

Specific · counts 1Medium confidence
Wrong · 0%For cybersecurity, here’s what we expect to see in 2022: Sixty percent of security incidents will result from issues with third parties.Cybersecurity · made Oct 2021 · due Dec 2022

What happened. No public measure came close to 60%. Verizon’s 2024 Data Breach Investigations Report, covering roughly Nov 2022 to Oct 2023, found that 15% of breaches involved a third party, itself a sharp rise on the prior year. The best independent measure put third-party involvement at about a quarter of the 60% called. Verizon counts breaches rather than all incidents, so the comparison is not exact, but the gap is far too wide for that to matter. Sources: verizon.com.

Source: Predictions 2022: Continued Uncertainty Forces Attention On Securing Relationships (Forrester blog)

Specific · counts 1Medium confidence
Still to fall due2 predictions
  1. Oct 2027Cyber insurance will reprice quicklyCybersecurity · made Apr 2026 · source
  2. Oct 2027The CVE system starts visibly failing ... It will show up as months-long enrichment backlogsCybersecurity · made Apr 2026 · source
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