Analyst Index · Infrastructure & Telecoms

Jonathan Chaplin

Executive Vice President, Comcast (was New Street Research)

48%
Accuracy: –
Not yet ranked: 1
Predictions scored: 3
Still to fall due

1 mostly wrong

Scored predictions1

Mostly wrong · 25%This is down 0.3 million from 3.6 million [collectively] in 2024Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Oct 2024 · due Dec 2025

What happened. Per the carriers' Q4 2025 results, 2025 fixed wireless net adds were 1.879m at T-Mobile (5G broadband), 1.166m at Verizon (693k consumer plus 473k business) and 875k at AT&T Internet Air: about 3.92m combined, up rather than down from 2024. 3.3m forecast vs about 3.92m actual (carriers' first published Q4 2025 results) is 15.8% out: outside 15%, inside the 25% band. The direction was also wrong (he called a decline; adds rose). Sources: sec.gov, sec.gov, sec.gov.

Source: FWA hits middle age and gets boring (Light Reading, 7 Nov 2024)

Specific · counts 1Forecast 3.3 m subscribers · actual 3.92 m subscribersMedium confidence

Still to fall due3 predictions

Dec 2028Since early January, we have been warning that Cable adds would likely stay negative for the next four years.Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Jan 2025 · source
Dec 2026We expect [customer] adds at all three to decline in 2026 and beyond.Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Oct 2024 · source
Dec 2029The four largest wireless carriers likely have enough capacity to support up to 16 million fixed wireless broadband subscribers ... will run out of fixed wireless capacity in 2029.Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Jun 2024 · source

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