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Analyst Index · Infrastructure & Telecoms

Seamus Crehan

President and Founder, Crehan Research (was Dell'Oro Group)
64%
Accuracy
–
Not yet ranked
1
Predictions scored
9
Still to fall due
1 right
All 10RightWrongPending
Scored predictions1
Right · 100%Given their expected increase in market adoption and associated price premiums, customer spending on smartNICs will likely exceed spending on foundational and performance server-class NICs within three yearsInfrastructure & Telecoms · made Feb 2022 · due Feb 2025

What happened. Crehan reported in March 2024 that in calendar 2023 SmartNIC revenue, including DPUs and IPUs, surpassed foundational/performance NIC revenue and made up more than half of a $6bn server-class Ethernet NIC market. The crossover he called within three years happened in 2023, inside the deadline, on Crehan's own SmartNIC definition. SmartNICs were about 10% of NIC volumes when he made the call, so it was not a safe bet. Sources: crehanresearch.com.

Source: SmartNIC Revenue Reached $1.5 Billion in 2021, Reports Crehan Research (press release)

Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Crehan Research’s own figures.

Specific · long-range · counts 1.5Medium confidence
Still to fall due9 predictions
  1. Mar 2028Most Fibre Channel HBA customers, on the other hand, have yet to upgrade to 64Gbps, but we expect this adoption to accelerate, driving 64Gbps to account for about half of all HBA shipments within two years.Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Mar 2026 · source
  2. Jan 2031We are projecting a 200-fold increase in scale-up Ethernet switching bandwidth alone.Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Jan 2026 · source
  3. Jan 2031Crehan predicts that the ramp in scale-up will have an even more profound impact on total market bandwidth, driving a 15-fold increase in the next five yearsInfrastructure & Telecoms · made Jan 2026 · source
  4. Jan 2031a steep ramp of Ethernet switch deployments for scale-up in AI rack-systems ... will push total sales to surpass $250B over the next five yearsInfrastructure & Telecoms · made Jan 2026 · source
  5. Jan 2030back-end AI Ethernet networking alone increasing eight-fold to comprise over one-third of the total revenueInfrastructure & Telecoms · made Jan 2025 · source
  6. Jan 2030Crehan Research predicts that combined Ethernet switch and NIC market revenue will double within five years to surpass $50 billion.Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Jan 2025 · source
  7. Jan 2027The company expects this technology to surpass 50-Gbps SerDes shipments to become the most-deployed data center Ethernet switch SerDes speed within three years.Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Jan 2024 · source
  8. Jan 2028Crehan Research predicts that 800 gigabit Ethernet (GbE) switches will see rapid customer adoption and will surpass 20 million ports in annual shipments within four yearsInfrastructure & Telecoms · made Jan 2024 · source
  9. Dec 2021Shipments of 400 gigabit Ethernet (GbE) data center switch ports are on track to exceed 10 million this year, more than triple the prior year's shipmentsInfrastructure & Telecoms · made Oct 2021 · source
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