Analyst Index · Infrastructure & Telecoms

Stacy Rasgon

Managing Director, US Semiconductors, Bernstein

57%
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Predictions scored: 1
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1 mostly right

Scored predictions1

Mostly right · 75%The firm took down its 2025 wafer fab equipment estimate to $107B, down 1% year-over-year, from $115BInfrastructure & Telecoms · made Nov 2024 · due Dec 2025

What happened. WFE spending grew rather than fell in 2025. SEMI put 2025 WFE at $115.7bn (+11% from $104bn) in its Dec 2025 year-end report, and its April 2026 full-year billings data showed wafer processing equipment up 12% and other front-end up 13%, consistent with about $116-117bn. Bernstein's own July 2026 tracker (2026 at $141bn = +21.4%) implies a 2025 base of about $116bn. Forecast $107bn vs about $115.7bn actual is a miss of about 7.5% (8% against the ~$116.5bn implied by SEMI's April 2026 growth figures), inside the 10% band. He called a slight decline; spending rose about 11-12%, but direction earns nothing under the rules. Sources: semi.org, evertiq.com, techflowpost.com.

Paraphrased. Source: Applied Materials price target lowered to $210 from $220 at Bernstein (TheFly via TipRanks) · 2025 full-year estimate

Specific · counts 1Forecast $107bn (global wafer fab equipment spending, 2025) · actual $115.7bn (global wafer fab equipment spending, 2025)Medium confidence

Still to fall due1 predictions

Dec 2026cut its 2026 wafer fab equipment spending estimate to $116B from $122BInfrastructure & Telecoms · made Nov 2024 · source

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