Alan Priestley

What happened. Gartner's August 2025 release put AI PCs at 15.6% of 2024 PC shipments (38.1m units). Its September 2024 forecast had already cut 2024 to 17%. Level call (a share, scored on the level bands): 22% forecast against 15.6% is 41% too high, Wrong. Direction earns nothing. Sources: gartner.com, gartner.com.

Source: Gartner Forecasts Worldwide AI Chips Revenue to Grow 33% in 2024 (Gartner press release)

Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Gartner’s own figures.

What happened. Gartner's January 2026 preliminary results said AI processors alone exceeded $200bn in sales in 2025, and AI semiconductors (processors, HBM and networking) made up nearly one-third of $793bn total semiconductor revenue. Level call: $92bn against more than $200bn for AI processors alone in 2025 (Gartner's first published 2025 results), at least 54% short, Wrong on the level bands. The full AI semiconductor total (processors, HBM and networking, nearly a third of $793bn) was higher still. Direction earns nothing. Sources: gartner.com.

Paraphrased. Source: Gartner Forecasts Worldwide AI Chips Revenue to Grow 33% in 2024 (Gartner press release)

Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Gartner’s own figures.

What happened. Gartner's preliminary results: memory revenue grew 71.8% in 2024 (73.4% in the April 2025 final results). The rebound was called correctly but came in 5.5 points short of the preliminary actual (7.1 against the final). Part of the gap comes from a 2023 base that was weaker than forecast. Sources: gartner.com, gartner.com.

Source: Gartner Forecasts Worldwide Semiconductor Revenue to Grow 17% in 2024 (Gartner press release)

Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Gartner’s own figures.

What happened. Gartner's preliminary results put 2023 revenue at $533bn, down 11.1%; SIA/WSTS reported a decline of 8.2%. The call states both a level and a rate, so the level governs: $534bn against Gartner's first published $533bn, 0.2% off. Sources: gartner.com, semiconductors.org.

Source: Gartner Forecasts Worldwide Semiconductor Revenue to Grow 17% in 2024 (Gartner press release)

What happened. Gartner's preliminary results: 2024 revenue $626bn, up 18.1%. The final results (April 2025) restated it to $655.9bn, up 21%. SIA/WSTS: $627.6bn, up 19.1%. The call states both a level and a rate, so the level governs: $624bn against Gartner's first published $626bn (February 2025 preliminary), 0.3% off. The later restated $655.9bn final is not used. Sources: gartner.com, gartner.com, semiconductors.org.

Source: Gartner Forecasts Worldwide Semiconductor Revenue to Grow 17% in 2024 (Gartner press release)

What happened. Gartner's May 2024 release put 2023 AI semiconductor revenue at $53.66bn. Forecast $53.4bn; Gartner's own later figure was $53.7bn. Sources: gartner.com.

Source: Gartner Forecasts Worldwide AI Chips Revenue to Reach $53 Billion in 2023 (Gartner press release)

Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Gartner’s own figures.

What happened. By late 2022 the chip market had swung into oversupply: memory makers cut capex and wafer starts to work down inventory, and 2023 sales fell 8-11%, with memory revenue down about 37% on excess channel inventory. He called a swing from shortage to overcapacity in 2023 or 2024; the 2023 inventory glut and downturn, led by memory, fits. Sources: gartner.com, gartner.com, semiconductors.org.

Paraphrased. Source: Chipmangel: Bald zu viele Halbleiter auf dem Markt? (Industriemagazin, dpa interview)

What happened. Semiconductor revenue fell in 2023: Gartner's preliminary count was $533bn, down 11.1% (later restated to $542.1bn); SIA/WSTS reported $526.8bn, down 8.2%. The release table states a level, so the level governs: $700.5bn against Gartner's first published $533bn is 31% too high, and the forecast rose from the $676bn 2022 base while the market fell. Sources: gartner.com, semiconductors.org.

Paraphrased. Source: Gartner Forecasts Worldwide Semiconductor Revenue to Grow 13.6% in 2022 (Gartner press release)

What happened. Gartner's preliminary results put 2022 semiconductor revenue at $601.7bn, up 1.1% from $595bn. The SIA/WSTS count was $574.1bn, up 3.3%. The call states both a level and a rate, so the level governs: $676bn against Gartner's first published $601.7bn (January 2023 preliminary) is 12.3% too high, Half right on the 5/10/15/25% level bands. On growth alone (13.6% vs 1.1%) it would be Wrong. Sources: gartner.com, semiconductors.org.

Source: Gartner Forecasts Worldwide Semiconductor Revenue to Grow 13.6% in 2022 (Gartner press release)