- 51%
- Accuracy
- 23 of 41
- Analyst ranking
- 11
- Predictions scored
- 2
- Still to fall due
Mostly right · 75%The overall industry is set on a strong trajectory that extend well beyond 2025
What happened. IDC put 2025 revenue at $842.8bn (blog, 29 Apr 2026, the earliest IDC full-year 2025 figure found), about 23.9% above its $680bn 2024 figure. WSTS put 2025 sales at $795.6bn, up 26.2%. The release stated a level, so the level governs: $800bn forecast against IDC's $842.8bn is 5.1% short, just outside the 5% Right band and inside 10% (Mostly right). The 17.6% growth rate missed by about 6 points, but is not scored because a level was stated. Sources: idc.com, wsts.org.
Half right · 50%our expectation of 20% growth this year and double-digit growth in 2025
What happened. IDC put 2025 revenue at $842.8bn (blog, 29 Apr 2026, the earliest IDC full-year 2025 figure found), about 23.9% above its $680bn 2024 figure. WSTS put 2025 growth at 26.2%, to $795.6bn. 'Double-digit growth' is a named range (10-19%). Actual 2025 growth was about 23.9% on IDC's figures, outside the range, so the nearest edge (19%) is scored: 4.9 points out, Half right. On WSTS's 26.2% it would be 7.2 points (Mostly wrong); IDC's like-for-like figure is used. Sources: wsts.org, idc.com.
Mostly right · 75%Revenues will continue to recover gradually and accelerate in 2024
What happened. IDC put 2024 revenue at $680bn, up 22.4% (September 2025 release, the earliest IDC full-year 2024 figure found). WSTS put 2024 sales at $627.6bn, up 19.1%. IDC rebased its series in between (its later 2023 base is about $556bn, not $526.5bn). The release stated a level, so the level is scored: $633bn forecast against IDC's $680bn is 6.9% short, inside the 10% Mostly right band (5/10/15/25% level bands). It is held as stated even though IDC later moved its base year. Sources: idc.com, semiconductors.org.
Right · 100%We expect 2024 and 2025 will be a strong recovery period for semiconductors
What happened. Chip sales rose 19.1% in 2024 to $627.6bn and 26.2% in 2025 to $795.6bn (WSTS). Both years brought strong growth. Sources: semiconductors.org, wsts.org.
Wrong · 0%WFE likely remains down in 2024 after a strong three-year cycle
What happened. SEMI reported 2024 equipment billings up 10% to a record $117.1bn, with wafer processing equipment up 9%. Wafer fab equipment grew in 2024 rather than falling. Sources: semi.org.
Half right · 50%the total semiconductor market is expected to decline in high single digits
What happened. IDC put the 2023 decline at 12.0% (to $526.5bn, November 2023 release); WSTS put it at 8.2%. No IDC figure for full-year 2023 published after the year closed was found; the -12.0% from the November 2023 release is the latest IDC full-year figure available and is used. 'High single digits' is a named range (a 7-9% decline). IDC's own 2023 figure was -12%, outside the range, so the nearest edge (-9%) is scored: 3 points out, Half right. WSTS's -8.2% falls inside the range, which would be Right, so the like-for-like IDC figure decides it. Sources: idc.com, semiconductors.org.
Right · 100%Year over year growth is expected to resume by Q4'23
What happened. Q4 2023 chip sales were $146.0bn, 11.6% above Q4 2022 (WSTS via SIA). Year-on-year growth returned in Q4 2023, as forecast. Sources: semiconductors.org.
Half right · 50%The inventory correction began in the first half of 2022, continued into the second half and is expected to bottom out in the first half of 2023 (translated from Chinese)
What happened. Quarterly chip sales bottomed in Q1 2023 and rose 4.7% in Q2 2023 (WSTS). IDC said in November 2023 that the market had reached a bottom and was growing quarter over quarter. Jay 25 Oct 2026: chip revenue bottomed in Q1 2023 as called, but IDC itself said the inventory correction ran to the end of 2023, so half right. Sources: semiconductors.org, idc.com.
Paraphrased. Source: Gelonghui: global semiconductor revenue may fall 5.3% this year (report of IDC worldwide semiconductor market outlook webinar)
Mostly wrong · 25%IDC expects 2023 global semiconductor revenue to fall 5.3% for the full year (translated from Chinese)
What happened. IDC put 2023 revenue at $526.5bn, down 12.0% (November 2023 release). WSTS, on its own basis, put the 2023 decline at 8.2%. No IDC figure for full-year 2023 published after the year closed was found; the -12.0% from the November 2023 release is the latest IDC full-year figure available and is used. Right direction, but the decline was more than twice as deep on IDC's own basis (6.7 points missed, Mostly wrong). Against WSTS the miss is 2.9 points (Half right), so the verdict rests on IDC's own like-for-like figure. Sources: idc.com, semiconductors.org.
Paraphrased. Source: Gelonghui: global semiconductor revenue may fall 5.3% this year (report of IDC worldwide semiconductor market outlook webinar)
Wrong · 0%Even if the inventory correction hits bottom in 2023, the overall year is estimated to be up 6% from 2022, according to IDC.
What happened. 2023 revenue fell. IDC put the decline at 12.0% (to $526.5bn, November 2023 release); WSTS put it at 8.2% (to $526.8bn). No IDC figure for full-year 2023 published after the year closed was found; the -12.0% from the November 2023 release is the latest IDC full-year figure available and is used. Growth of 6% was forecast; the market shrank by 8-12%. Wrong sign. Sources: idc.com, semiconductors.org.
Paraphrased. Source: Chip scare tempered by IDC's long term growth outlook (Fierce Electronics)
Half right · 50%Overall, the semiconductor industry remains on track to deliver another healthy year of growth as the super cycle that began in 2020 continues this year
What happened. IDC put 2022 worldwide semiconductor revenue at $598bn (November 2023 release, the earliest IDC full-year 2022 figure found; no early-2023 IDC total was found in a release). WSTS put 2022 sales at $574.1bn, up 3.3%. The release stated a level, so the level is scored: $661bn forecast against IDC's $598bn is 10.5% too high, inside the 15% Half right band (5/10/15/25% level bands). Against WSTS's $574.1bn it is 15.1% too high (Mostly wrong). The 13.7% growth rate missed by about 10 points, but the level governs. Sources: semiconductors.org, idc.com.
Still to fall due2 predictions
- Dec 2028
IDC forecasts that the semiconductor market will become a trillion-dollar market by 2028; almost two years faster than consensus.
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Sep 2025 · source - Dec 2026
A recent IDC forecast shows global chip revenues increasing each year into 2026, going from an estimated $638 billion in 2022 to $745 billion in 2026.
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Aug 2022 · source