Andy Lawrence
- 56%
- Accuracy
- 17 of 41
- Analyst ranking
- 8
- Predictions scored
- 1
- Still to fall due
Right · 100%Systems based on Nvidia's data center accelerators, derived from GPUs, dominate the generative AI model accelerator market and will continue to do so until at least mid-2025.
What happened. Futurum put Nvidia at about 85% of data-centre AI processor revenue in 4Q 2024 (AMD about 6%), and Nvidia reported $39.1bn of data-centre revenue for the quarter to April 2025. Nvidia still held a dominant share of AI accelerators through mid-2025. Sources: futurumgroup.com, nvidianews.nvidia.com.
Wrong · 0%A share of data center capacity by power will fall in the low-to-mid single digits even by the end of 2025.
What happened. The IEA (April 2025) estimated servers for AI already took about 15% of total data-centre energy demand in 2024. Uptime's own May 2025 update raised its estimate to about 5 GW of generative-AI IT load by end-2025, roughly double its earlier path. No published end-2025 measure puts generative AI under 6%. Even the 2024 IEA figure (all AI servers) is more than double the top of the range, and AI's share grew further in 2025; Uptime itself revised its numbers sharply upwards. Sources: scientificamerican.com, intelligence.uptimeinstitute.com.
Right · 100%Ongoing supply chain issues and rising labor, energy and capital costs all set to make building and running data centers more expensive in 2023 and beyond.
What happened. Turner & Townsend's Data Centre Cost Index 2023 found average global data-centre construction costs up about 6% from 2022 to 2023, with rises of 11-22% in seven emerging markets. Building costs rose again in 2023, as called. Sources: reports.turnerandtownsend.com, turnerandtownsend.com.
Source: Five data center predictions for 2023 (Uptime Institute Intelligence keynote report 86)
Right · 100%If history is any guide, demand for data center IT will rise again some time in 2023 once some major IT infrastructure buyers accelerate their capacity expansion, which will yet again lead to tightness in the supply of select hardware later in the year.
What happened. Hyperscaler AI build-outs drove an Nvidia H100 shortage in the second half of 2023, with waits of up to about 11 months reported for late 2023 before easing to 8-12 weeks in 2024. Demand did return later in 2023 and select hardware (AI GPUs) became severely supply-constrained, though the driver was generative AI rather than a normal cycle. Sources: windowsreport.com.
Source: Five data center predictions for 2023 (Uptime Institute Intelligence keynote report 86) · 'later in the year'
Right · 100%As a result, prices and lead-times for generic IT hardware (with some exceptions) will likely moderate in the first half of 2023.
What happened. Generic hardware prices fell: TrendForce reported DRAM contract prices down 13-18% in 2Q23 (server DRAM down 15-20%) and NAND down 8-13%, after falls in 1Q23, on weak server demand and high inventory. Component and generic server hardware prices eased sharply in the first half of 2023. Sources: storagenewsletter.com, ein.iconnect007.com.
Source: Five data center predictions for 2023 (Uptime Institute Intelligence keynote report 86)
Mostly wrong · 25%Public outage trends suggest there will be at least 20 serious, high-profile IT outages worldwide each year.
What happened. Uptime's Annual Outage Analysis 2023 logged 111 publicly reported outages in 2022, of which about 22% (19% serious, 3% severe) were serious or severe, i.e. about 24. The same report then cut the standing estimate to '10 to 20' a year. The threshold of 20 is about 18% below the roughly 24 serious or severe outages Uptime counted for 2022, which falls in the under-25% band. Sources: uptimeinstitute.com.
Source: Uptime Institute's 2022 Outage Analysis Finds Downtime Costs and Consequences Worsening (press release) · 'each year', applied to the year of the call
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Uptime Institute’s own figures.
Right · 100%Because electricity prices globally are linked to liquid natural gas, forward prices across the world will remain high for at least the rest of 2022, especially in Europe.
What happened. EU wholesale power prices hit a record monthly average of about EUR543/MWh in August 2022 and stayed far above historic levels for the rest of the year; December 2022 day-ahead averages were about EUR257-295/MWh in Germany, France and Italy. Prices stayed high, and peaked, in Europe through the rest of 2022. Sources: gmk.center, acer.europa.eu.
Source: The shock waves from Ukraine (Uptime Institute Journal, by Andy Lawrence) · 'rest of 2022'
Right · 100%While supply chain disruptions are likely to continue during 2022 (resulting in higher costs and longer delivery times), it is the large operators that are likely to maintain low overall project costs and tight timeframes.
What happened. Disruption persisted through 2022: Turner & Townsend's index showed data-centre construction costs up about 8% in 2022, and Uptime's 2022 supply chain survey found one in five operators reporting major delays, with UPS, generators, switchgear and cooling units the worst pain points at end-2022. Costs rose and lead times stayed long through 2022, as called. Sources: reports.turnerandtownsend.com, uptimeinstitute.com.
Source: Five data center predictions for 2022 (Uptime Institute Intelligence report UII-58) · 'during 2022'
Still to fall due1 predictions
- Dec 2030
The projected 75-125 GW growth in global data center power demand through 2030 will drive greater reliance on gas turbines for primary power.
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Jan 2026 · source