- 54%
- Accuracy
- 18 of 41
- Analyst ranking
- 6
- Predictions scored
- 10
- Still to fall due
Half right · 50%受惠2024年雲端服務供應商（CSP）及品牌客群對建置AI基礎設施需求強勁，全球AI伺服器（含搭載GPU、FPGA、ASIC等）出貨年成長可達42％。(Global AI server shipments will grow 42% in 2024 on strong CSP and brand demand.)
What happened. TrendForce's January 2025 release said AI server shipments increased 46% YoY in 2024. Missed by 4 points (42% vs 46%). Sources: trendforce.com.
Paraphrased. Source: 研調：AI伺服器今年出貨年增42％ 2025年再增28％ (Commercial Times)
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on TrendForce’s own figures.
Mostly right · 75%The global AI server market—encompassing AI Training and AI Inference—is projected to exceed 1.6 million units, growing at an impressive rate of 40%.
What happened. TrendForce's January 2025 release said AI server shipments rose 46% in 2024. On the 1.18 million 2023 base implied by its July 2024 release, that is about 1.72 million units. TrendForce has not published a 2024 unit figure. Threshold scored as a point forecast: 1.6 million against an implied 1.72 million is about 7% short. On the growth rate alone (40% vs 46%) it would be Mostly wrong; the release level governs. Sources: trendforce.com, trendforce.com.
Source: 2024 Commercialization of Copilot to Boost AI Server and AI PC Development, Says TrendForce
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on TrendForce’s own figures.
Wrong · 0%TrendForce notes that due to the robust demand for high-end AI chips and HBM, TSMC’s monthly CoWoS capacity is projected to hit 12K by the end of 2023.
What happened. TrendForce's April 2024 release put end-2024 CoWoS monthly capacity at nearly 40K, 'a staggering 150% year-over-year increase', which implies about 16K at the end of 2023. 12K against an implied 16K is 25% short, the Wrong band. Sources: trendforce.com.
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on TrendForce’s own figures.
Wrong · 0%This strong demand is anticipated to continue into 2024, with a projected growth of 30~40% in advanced packaging capacity, given the readiness of related equipment.
What happened. TrendForce's own 2024 releases (both by Kung) put TSMC's total CoWoS capacity growth in 2024 at about 150%, with end-2024 monthly capacity near 40K; TrendForce News in January 2025 said 2025's 75,000 wafers would nearly double 2024 levels. Stated range 30-40%; scored from the 40% edge against about 150% growth, a miss of over 100 points. Sources: trendforce.com, trendforce.com, trendforce.com.
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on TrendForce’s own figures.
Right · 100%resulting in AI servers poised to constitute nearly 9% of the total server shipments
What happened. TrendForce's July 2024 release said AI servers would reach 12.2% of 2024 server shipments, 'an increase of about 3.4 percentage points from 2023', putting 2023 at about 8.8%. Nearly 9% against about 8.8% is roughly 2% off. Sources: trendforce.com.
Source: Global AI Server Shipments Forecasted to Increase 40% in 2023 amid Rising AI Demand, Says TrendForce
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on TrendForce’s own figures.
Right · 100%TrendForce predicts a dramatic surge in AI server shipments for 2023, with an estimated 1.2 million units—outfitted with GPUs, FPGAs, and ASICs—destined for markets around the world, marking a robust YoY growth of 38.4%.
What happened. TrendForce's July 2024 release put 2024 AI server shipments at 1.67 million units, 41.5% growth, which implies about 1.18 million units in 2023. Its January 2024 release (2024 over 1.6 million, +40%) implies about 1.14 million. 1.2 million against an implied 1.18 million is about 2% off, inside the 5% band (5% against the rougher January 2024 implied figure). Sources: trendforce.com, trendforce.com.
Source: Global AI Server Shipments Forecasted to Increase 40% in 2023 amid Rising AI Demand, Says TrendForce
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on TrendForce’s own figures.
Still to fall due10 predictions
- Dec 2026
Nvidia Corp’s GB300 platform is expected to account for 70 to 80 percent of global artificial intelligence (AI) server rack shipments this year
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Jan 2026 · source - Dec 2026
Total rack shipments of both series are projected to reach 36,000 units this year and increase to 59,000 units next year, he added.
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Nov 2025 · source - Dec 2026
Nvidia is expected to ship 5.9 million advanced graphics processing units (GPUs) this year, and between 6.9 million and 7.1 million units next year, he said.
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Nov 2025 · source - Dec 2026
Next year, the global server market is expected to grow by more than 4 percent
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Nov 2025 · source - Dec 2026
Next year, the global server market is expected to grow by more than 4 percent, with the AI server segment set to expand by about 21 percent, it said.
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Nov 2025 · source - Dec 2025
2025年受雲端業者及主權雲等需求帶動，AI伺服器年出貨量可望再成長約28％，推動AI伺服器占整體伺服器比例提高至近15％。(AI server shipments to grow about 28% in 2025, lifting their share to nearly 15%.)
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Oct 2024 · source - Dec 2025
CSPs such as Microsoft, Meta, and AWS are taking the lead in adopting GB200 and their combined shipment volume is expected to exceed 30,000 racks by 2025.
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made May 2024 · source - Dec 2024
Global server shipments are estimated to reach approximately. 13.654 million units in 2024, an increase of about 2.05% YoY.
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Feb 2024 · source - Dec 2026
TrendForce has revised its CAGR forecast for AI server shipments between 2022 and 2026 upwards to an ambitious 29%.
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made May 2023 · source - Dec 2026
a figure projected to increase to 15% by 2026
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made May 2023 · source