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Analyst Index · Infrastructure & Telecoms

Craig Moffett

Co-founder and Senior Analyst, MoffettNathanson (was Bernstein)
43%
Accuracy
34 of 41
Analyst ranking
4
Predictions scored
8
Still to fall due
1 mostly right1 mostly wrong2 wrong
All 12RightWrongPending
Scored predictions4
Wrong · 0%We don't expect net subscriber growth for the cable operators in our coverage in 2025, but we expect dramatically smaller lossesInfrastructure & Telecoms · made Jan 2025 · due Dec 2025

What happened. The four operators in his coverage (Comcast, Charter, Altice USA/Optimum, Cable One) lost about 1.24 million broadband customers in 2025. That was more than in 2024 (about 1.09m), not 'dramatically smaller'. His forecast loss of 321k misses the 1.24m actual by far more than 25%, and losses widened instead of shrinking. Sources: sec.gov, sec.gov, sec.gov, sec.gov.

Source: For cable broadband the worst may be over (Light Reading, 16 Jan 2025)

Specific · counts 1Forecast -0.32 m net broadband subscriber adds · actual -1.24 m net broadband subscriber addsHigh confidence
Wrong · 0%followed by a slowdown in losses: -1.05 million in 2025 ... a gain of 800,000 in 2025Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Oct 2024 · due Dec 2025

What happened. The four public US cable operators lost about 1.24 million broadband customers in 2025: Comcast -587k (31.842m to 31.255m; Cord Cutters News sums quarterly losses to 710k), Charter -403k, Optimum (Altice USA) -193k and Cable One -56k. He forecast a loss of about 250k; cable lost about 1.24m, roughly five times as many, so the miss is far beyond 25%. Sources: sec.gov, sec.gov, sec.gov, sec.gov.

Paraphrased. Source: Cable could return to broadband sub growth in 2026 - forecast (Light Reading, 9 Oct 2024)

Specific · counts 1Forecast -0.25 m net broadband subscriber adds · actual -1.24 m net broadband subscriber addsHigh confidence
Mostly wrong · 25%MoffettNathanson expects US cable to lose 2.03 million subs in legacy areas in 2024 ... MoffettNathanson sees cable adding 750,000 broadband subs in those areas in 2024Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Oct 2024 · due Dec 2024

What happened. The four public US cable operators lost about 1.09 million broadband customers in 2024: Comcast -411k (32.253m to 31.842m), Charter -508k (30.588m to 30.080m), Altice USA -170k and Cable One -4k. Moffett's own January 2025 tally was -1.08 million. His forecast loss of 1.28m is 17% off the 1.09m actual, inside the under-25% band. He expected the end of the ACP subsidy to hit harder than it did. Sources: sec.gov, sec.gov, sec.gov, sec.gov, lightreading.com.

Paraphrased. Source: Cable could return to broadband sub growth in 2026 - forecast (Light Reading, 9 Oct 2024)

Specific · short-range · counts 0.5Forecast -1.28 m net broadband subscriber adds · actual -1.09 m net broadband subscriber addsMedium confidence
Mostly right · 75%MoffettNathanson projects a 4% to 5% annual decline in pay-TV subs, expecting the grand total to drop to 73 million by 2024.Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Dec 2021 · due Dec 2024

What happened. MoffettNathanson's Q4 2024 Cord-Cutting Monitor put the US pay-TV universe (traditional plus vMVPD) at 67.7 million at the end of 2024, after a record 5.2 million loss in 2024 (a 7.1% decline). His 73m forecast is 7.8% above the 67.7m actual, inside the 10% band. Declines ran faster than his 4-5% a year, so the base fell further than he expected. Sources: lightreading.com.

Paraphrased. Source: Where's the subscriber floor for US pay-TV? (Light Reading, 1 Dec 2021)

Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on MoffettNathanson’s own figures.

Specific · long-range · counts 1.5Forecast 73 m subscribers · actual 67.7 m subscribersMedium confidence
Still to fall due8 predictions
  1. Dec 2026compared to an expected breakdown of 38% virtual MVPD subs and 62% traditional pay-TV subs at the end of 2026Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Sep 2026 · source
  2. Dec 2030we can now see a base Pay TV floor of 50+ million subscribers by 2030Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Sep 2026 · source
  3. Dec 2028Moffett's latest forecast shows US cable operators shedding fewer total broadband subs in the coming years, and then growing ever so slightly in 2028.Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Sep 2025 · source
  4. Dec 2026For Charter, with what is still the most ambitious rural deployment campaign, we expect a return to (very small) positive growth in 2026.Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Jan 2025 · source
  5. Dec 2029Moffett said he expects nearly half of all pay-TV subscriptions to be purchased through a vMVPD by 2029Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Jan 2025 · source
  6. Dec 2028He expects pay-TV subs to decline by 6% to 7% each year through 2028.Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Jan 2025 · source
  7. Dec 2026MoffettNathanson's composite US cable subscriber forecast ... indicates the cable industry will see their fortunes turn for the better by the end of 2026 with an estimated gain of 116,000 net broadband adds.Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Oct 2024 · source
  8. Mar 2027the number is poised to rise as high as 60% over the next five yearsInfrastructure & Telecoms · made Mar 2022 · source
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