- 42%
- Accuracy
- 35 of 41
- Analyst ranking
- 9
- Predictions scored
- 11
- Still to fall due
Right · 100%We forecast the Optical Transport market to return to growth in 2025 once the customer inventory correction phase ends in late 2024 and global economic conditions begin to improve in early 2025.
What happened. Dell'Oro's first full-year figure: the optical transport market grew 10% in 2025 to $16bn, driven by data centre interconnect. Direction-only call; the market returned to growth in 2025. Sources: delloro.com, delloro.com.
Source: Optical Transport Equipment Market Declined 18 Percent in 3Q 2024, According to Dell'Oro Group (press release) · in 2025
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Dell'Oro Group’s own figures.
Half right · 50%The Optical Transport market outlook for 2024 was revised downward. The current forecast is for the Optical Transport equipment market to decline 8 percent in 2024.
What happened. Dell'Oro's first full-year figure: the optical transport market declined 13% in 2024. Missed by 5 percentage points, the edge of the Half right band. Sources: delloro.com.
Source: Optical Transport Equipment Market Declined 19 Percent in 2Q 2024, According to Dell'Oro Group (press release) · in 2024
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Dell'Oro Group’s own figures.
Wrong · 0%the Service Provider Router and Aggregation Switch market is predicted to return to growth after undergoing an inventory correction in 2024. The expected market decline in 2024 is 6 percent.
What happened. Dell'Oro's January 2025 forecast put the total router market (high-end routers plus aggregation switches) down nearly 20% in 2024, and Yu's Dec 2025 review confirmed it 'dropped nearly 20% in 2024'. High-end routers alone fell 18%. Missed by about 13 percentage points ('nearly 20%' taken as 19%). Even the high-end-only figure (-18%) misses by 12. Sources: delloro.com, delloro.com, delloro.com.
Source: Service Provider Router and Aggregation Switch Market Poised for Growth After Inventory Correction, According to Dell'Oro Group (press release) · in 2024
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Dell'Oro Group’s own figures.
Wrong · 0%The Optical Transport market is forecast to decline by 2 percent in 2024 due to customers working through inventory and exercising controlled capital spending in an uncertain economic environment.
What happened. Dell'Oro's first full-year figure: the optical transport market declined 13% in 2024 (later restated to -9% in July 2025). Missed by 11 percentage points, outside the 10-point band. Sources: delloro.com.
Source: Optical Transport Equipment Market Forecast to Decline in 2024, According to Dell'Oro Group (press release) · in 2024
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Dell'Oro Group’s own figures.
Wrong · 0%As a result of the sharp slowdown in mobile networks, we lowered our full year 2024 outlook to only a one percent growth rate.
What happened. Dell'Oro's first full-year figure: the microwave transmission market contracted 2% in 2024 (a Dec 2025 blog later said 3%). Missed by 3 percentage points: Half right on the points bands. The sign was wrong, which a strict reading of the wrong-sign rule would make Wrong (flagged). Sources: delloro.com.
Source: Microwave Transmission Market Declined 8 Percent in 1Q 2024, According to Dell'Oro Group (press release) · full year 2024
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Dell'Oro Group’s own figures.
Mostly right · 75%Therefore, even though the results in the first half of 2023 were higher than expected, we are holding the full year 2023 outlook at 4 percent
What happened. Dell'Oro's first full-year figure: worldwide optical transport grew 2% in 2023, to nearly $16bn. Missed by 2 percentage points, inside the 2.5-point Mostly right band. Sources: delloro.com.
Source: Optical Transport Market Beats Growth Expectations Again in 2Q 2023, According to Dell'Oro Group (press release) · full year 2023
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Dell'Oro Group’s own figures.
Wrong · 0%The Microwave Transmission market is projected to peak in 2025 as the rate of growth in 5G deployments begins to slow the following year.
What happened. The microwave market contracted 2% in 2024 and ended 2025 down 1%, so 2025 revenue was below both 2024 and 2023. In Feb 2026 Yu said he now expects growth through 2027 before 5G peaks. 2025 was not the peak: revenue fell in both 2024 and 2025, so the peak to date is 2023 or earlier (two or more years off), or lies after 2025 on his newer view. Sources: delloro.com, delloro.com.
Source: $18 Billion Microwave Transmission Equipment Revenue Over Next Five Years, According to Dell'Oro Group (press release) · named year 2025
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Dell'Oro Group’s own figures.
Right · 100%Optical Transport market expected to increase in 2023 due to improving component supply.
What happened. Dell'Oro's first full-year figure: the worldwide optical transport market grew 2% in 2023 to nearly $16bn. Direction-only call; the market did increase in 2023. Sources: delloro.com.
Source: Optical Transport Equipment Market to Grow at 3 Percent CAGR through 2027, According to Dell'Oro Group (press release) · in 2023
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Dell'Oro Group’s own figures.
Right · 100%At this rate, we are expecting a full year optical market contraction in the country. Something that has not occurred since 2012.
What happened. Dell'Oro's 4Q 2021 release put China's optical transport revenue down about 9% in 2021. China optical revenue contracted in full-year 2021 as called. Sources: delloro.com.
Source: Optical Transport Market Down 2 Percent in First Nine Months of 2021, According to Dell'Oro Group (press release) · full year 2021
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Dell'Oro Group’s own figures.
Still to fall due11 predictions
- Dec 2027
I believe 1.6 Tbps ZR/ZR+ plugs will be generally available before the end of 2027, with samples as early as 4Q 2026.
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Apr 2026 · source - Dec 2027
We believe the fundamentals underlying the market condition remain in place, and, therefore, still believe the demand for microwave transmission equipment will grow through 2027, after which time, 5G network deployments should peak.
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Feb 2026 · source - Dec 2029
the Optical Transport market is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 5 percent for the next five years, reaching $19 billion by 2029.
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Jul 2025 · source - Dec 2027
The Microwave Transmission market is projected to grow for the next three years at an average annual rate of 3 percent before entering a period of contraction in 2028.
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Feb 2025 · source - Dec 2029
After this corrective period, the optical market is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 4 percent for the next five years, bringing the market size to $16 billion by 2029.
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Jan 2025 · source - Dec 2025
The High End Router market is projected to recover in 2025, growing 4 percent, with the conclusion of the inventory correction and better market conditions
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Nov 2024 · source - Dec 2028
Optical DWDM equipment is forecast to reach $18 billion in market revenue by 2028.
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Jan 2024 · source - Dec 2027
Coherent Optics market is predicted to reach nearly $13 billion by 2027.
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Oct 2023 · source - Dec 2027
Optical Transport equipment demand is forecast to increase at a 3 percent compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) for the next five years, reaching $17 billion by 2027.
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Jan 2023 · source - Dec 2026
The ZR optics market comprised of 400ZR and 800ZR is forecast to surpass $600 million by 2026.
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Jan 2022 · source - Dec 2026
We are predicting that demand will continue to increase for the next five years, and that the market will reach $18 billion by 2026.
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Jan 2022 · source