- 59%
- Accuracy
- 14 of 41
- Analyst ranking
- 5
- Predictions scored
- 5
- Still to fall due
Artificial Intelligence ▾
Wrong · 0%There's no way you can pay for the scale of clusters being planned to be built next year for OpenAI unless they raise like $50-100 billion, which I think they will raise late this year or early next year.
What happened. OpenAI announced a $40bn funding round at a $300bn valuation on 31 March 2025, led by SoftBank. Its previous round (October 2024) was $6.6bn. He gave a $50-100bn range; the raise was $40bn, outside it. Scored from the nearest edge ($50bn): 20% short, inside the 25% band. Timing (early 2025) was right. Sources: cnbc.com, techcrunch.com.
Source: Dylan Patel & Jon Y (Asianometry) – How the semiconductor industry actually works (Dwarkesh Podcast, transcript) · 'early next year' read generously as the first half of 2025
Right · 100%China will have multiple firms capable of training better than GPT-4 next year alone. It's not even a question.
What happened. In 2024 several Chinese labs released models that beat the original GPT-4 on standard benchmarks, including DeepSeek (DeepSeek-V3, December 2024) and Alibaba (Qwen2.5). Stanford's 2025 AI Index says the gap between Chinese and US models shrank from double digits in 2023 to near parity in 2024. More than one Chinese firm trained a model better than GPT-4 within 2024, as he said. Sources: hai.stanford.edu, github.com, qwenlm.github.io.
Source: China AI & Semiconductors Rise: US Sanctions Have Failed (SemiAnalysis)
Still to fall due1 predictions
- Dec 2026
At the current trajectory, we believe that Claude Code will be 20%+ of all daily commits by the end of 2026.
Artificial Intelligence · made Feb 2026 · source