Jeff Heynen

What happened. Dell'Oro's March 2026 release said a stronger fourth quarter 'was not enough to push 2025 into positive Y/Y growth', and Heynen called 2025 the final year of a three-year cycle of reduced spending. In March 2025 he had already said '2025 was supposed to be a growth year'. He called a rebound in 2025; spending fell again for the year. Sources: delloro.com, delloro.com.

Source: Broadband Equipment Spending Expected to Grow at 2 Percent CAGR over Next Five Years (Dell'Oro press release)

Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Dell'Oro Group’s own figures.

What happened. Dell'Oro reported Wi-Fi 7 residential router shipments up 5,935% Y/Y in 3Q 2024 and 8,155% in 4Q 2024, driven by low-cost dual-band units in China. Wi-Fi 7 shipments ramped very steeply in 2024, as called. Sources: delloro.com, delloro.com.

Paraphrased. Source: Broadband Equipment Spending Drops 9 Percent in 2023 (Dell'Oro press release)

Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Dell'Oro Group’s own figures.

What happened. Dell'Oro's first full-year 2024 figure said spending was flat on 2023 ($17.5 B), with a stronger second half (2H24 up 6% on 1H24). The call states both a level and a rate, so the level governs: $16.5 B against Dell'Oro's first full-year 2024 figure of about $17.5 B is 5.7% under, inside the 10% band but outside 5%. The direction (a further fall) was wrong, as the market was flat. The Feb 2024 release's -1% (about $17.3 B) is logged as a restatement. Sources: delloro.com, delloro.com.

Source: 2024 Outlook: Broadband Market Faces Challenge Amidst Lower Spending from 2023 (Dell'Oro blog, by Jeff Heynen)

Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Dell'Oro Group’s own figures.

What happened. Dell'Oro reported total broadband access equipment revenue fell 9% to $17.5 B in 2023, as operators worked through inventory. He called 5-7% growth, a stated range; outside it, the forecast is set to the nearest edge (5%). The market shrank 9% (Dell'Oro's first full-year 2023 figure): wrong sign. The blog gives 2022 at just over $18 B but no 2023 dollar level, so the growth-rate bands apply. Sources: delloro.com.

Source: Broadband Access & Home Networking Market: A Look into 2023 (Dell'Oro blog, by Jeff Heynen)

Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Dell'Oro Group’s own figures.

What happened. Dell'Oro's January 2025 forecast release gave PON equipment revenue of $10.5 B in 2024 (raised to $10.7 B in July 2025). PON spending had in fact peaked in 2022 at about $11.7 B, so 2024 was not the peak. $10.2 B against $10.5 B is within 3%. The 'peak' framing was wrong (2022 was higher), but the stated 2024 number held. Sources: delloro.com, delloro.com.

Paraphrased. Source: Analyst predicts PON, FWA spending will climb as cable flattens out (Light Reading)

Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Dell'Oro Group’s own figures.

What happened. Dell'Oro's first full-year 2024 figure said total broadband access equipment spending was flat on 2023, which it had put at $17.5 B (its four 2024 quarterly releases sum to about $17.7 B). The market had already peaked at $19 B in 2022, then fell 9% in 2023, so growth was not sustained through 2024. Under the dollar-number ruling, $18 B against about $17.5 B is within 3%, so Right. But the call's shape was wrong: spending peaked in 2022, not 2024, and fell in 2023 rather than growing. Flagged for Jay. Sources: delloro.com, delloro.com, delloro.com.

Source: Cumulative Spending on PON, Cable Broadband Equipment, and Fixed Wireless CPE to Reach $95 B Between 2021 and 2026 (Dell'Oro press release; subhead: Revenue to Peak at $18 B in 2024)

Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Dell'Oro Group’s own figures.