Siân Morgan
- 59%
- Accuracy
- 12 of 41
- Analyst ranking
- 14
- Predictions scored
- 7
- Still to fall due
Right · 100%Wireless LAN (WLAN) revenue is expected to grow 11 percent in 2025 after the 2024 contraction finally comes to an end.
What happened. Enterprise WLAN revenue grew 11.4% in 2025 to $10.5bn (IDC). Dell'Oro has not published a full-year 2025 growth figure. Missed by 0.4 points. Sources: idc.com.
Paraphrased. Source: WLAN Market Will Surge to Double-Digit Growth in 2025, According to Dell'Oro Group (press release)
Mostly wrong · 25%Wi-Fi 7 adoption will shoot up in 2025 and will represent over a third of Indoor AP revenues.
What happened. IDC quarterly shares (11.8% in 1Q25, 21.2% in 2Q25, 39.7% in 4Q25) imply a full-year Wi-Fi 7 share of dependent AP revenue of roughly 25-30%. Dell'Oro has not published a full-year share; Morgan put 2025 indoor Wi-Fi 7 AP revenue at nearly $2bn. The one-third threshold, scored as a point forecast, is about 19% above the estimated 27% (under-25% band). The estimate rests on IDC quarterly data. Sources: idc.com, idc.com, mobileworldlive.com.
Paraphrased. Source: WLAN Market Will Surge to Double-Digit Growth in 2025, According to Dell'Oro Group (press release)
Wrong · 0%In 2025, we expect that nearly 40 percent of manufacturers' Indoor AP revenues will come from Wi-Fi 7.
What happened. IDC put Wi-Fi 7 at 11.8% of dependent AP revenue in 1Q25, 21.2% in 2Q25 and 39.7% in 4Q25, implying roughly 25-30% for the full year. Morgan told Mobile World Live that indoor Wi-Fi 7 AP revenue was nearly $2bn in 2025, against a total WLAN market of roughly $10bn. Dell'Oro has not published a full-year share. Wi-Fi 7 reached about 40% of AP revenue only in the final quarter. The full-year share was roughly 25-30%, more than 25% below the forecast. The actual is an estimate from IDC quarterly shares. Sources: idc.com, idc.com, mobileworldlive.com.
Right · 100%Wireless LAN (WLAN) revenues are expected to drop 13 percent in 2024, with lower prices exacerbating depressed demand.
What happened. Enterprise WLAN revenue fell 12.7% in 2024 (IDC); Dell'Oro's quarterly figures imply about 12%. Missed by 0.3 points. It was made with half the year's data in, so it is a short-horizon call. Sources: idc.com.
Paraphrased. Source: Cost-Effective Wi-Fi 7 Models Will Drive New Technology's Adoption over Next Five Years, According to Dell'Oro Group (press release)
Half right · 50%Dell'Oro Group expects to see a 6 percent rebound in Campus Switch revenues in 2025, and then steady growth until 2028.
What happened. IDC put 2025 non-datacentre (campus and branch) Ethernet switch revenue up 9.1%. Dell'Oro's own release said only that the market rebounded in 2025 without recovering the 19% fall of 2024; it gave no percentage. Missed by 3.1 points on IDC's independent figure. IDC's non-datacentre scope is close to, but not exactly, Dell'Oro's campus definition. Sources: idc.com, delloro.com.
Paraphrased. Source: Campus Switch Revenues Will Plunge in 2024, According to Dell'Oro Group (press release)
Half right · 50%Campus Switch sales hit a stratospheric high in 2023 but are expected to come sharply back down to earth in 2024, contracting by 16 percent.
What happened. Dell'Oro's first full-year figure: campus switch sales fell 20% in 2024 (later revised to 19%). IDC put non-datacentre Ethernet switch revenue down 20.0%. Missed by 4 points (≤5 band); IDC's independent figure gives the same miss. Sources: delloro.com.
Paraphrased. Source: Campus Switch Revenues Will Plunge in 2024, According to Dell'Oro Group (press release)
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Dell'Oro Group’s own figures.
Wrong · 0%Dell'Oro Group ... projects that Campus Network as a Service (CNaaS) revenues will double in 2024 in the midst of a LAN equipment market contraction.
What happened. Dell'Oro later reported that CNaaS revenue grew 65% in 2024. Doubling is 100% growth; the actual 65% misses by 35 points. Sources: delloro.com.
Paraphrased. Source: Campus NaaS and Public Cloud-Managed LAN Revenues to Exceed $12 B in 2028, According to Dell'Oro Group (press release)
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Dell'Oro Group’s own figures.
Half right · 50%The introduction of Wi-Fi 7 to enterprises will be one of the few bright spots for vendors in 2024, in a market that is expected to contract by 9 percent.
What happened. Enterprise WLAN revenue fell 12.7% in 2024 (IDC). Dell'Oro published no full-year percentage; its quarterly figures (1Q24 -27%, 2Q24 $2.2bn, 3Q24 $2.3bn, 4Q24 +7%) against a $10bn 2023 imply a fall of about 12%. Missed by 3.7 points (≤5 band). Sources: idc.com, delloro.com, delloro.com.
Right · 100%Over the course of 2024, vendors will ship more Wi-Fi 6E than Wi-Fi 7 APs.
What happened. Wi-Fi 7 reached only 11% of enterprise indoor AP shipments by 4Q 2024, its highest quarter (Dell'Oro). IDC put Wi-Fi 6E at 29.0% of dependent AP revenue in 4Q24 against 10.2% for Wi-Fi 7. Wi-Fi 6E outsold Wi-Fi 7 through 2024 on both Dell'Oro shipment and IDC revenue data. Sources: delloro.com, idc.com.
Source: Enterprise Class Wireless LAN—The Market Will Shift in 2024 (Dell'Oro Group blog, by Siân Morgan)
Right · 100%The first enterprise class 802.11be (Wi-Fi 7) APs are expected to ship before the end of 2023.
What happened. H3C became the first major vendor to recognise revenue for enterprise-class Wi-Fi 7 APs in 2Q 2023, and more vendors followed later in 2023. Enterprise Wi-Fi 7 APs shipped in 2023, before the stated deadline. Sources: delloro.com.
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Dell'Oro Group’s own figures.
Right · 100%Growth is expected to resume in 2025 and beyond.
What happened. Enterprise WLAN revenue grew 11.4% in 2025 to $10.5bn (IDC). Growth resumed in 2025 as called. Sources: idc.com.
Right · 100%However, the high volume of WLAN units shipped in 2022 and expected in 2023 should taper off in 2024... This will result in a slowdown in new shipments for 2024—a digestion period.
What happened. 2024 enterprise WLAN revenue fell 12.7% to $9.4bn (IDC); Dell'Oro called the 2024 contraction the worst in over 20 years. Nearly two years ahead, during record growth, she called a 2024 WLAN digestion period (the release headline says 2024 contraction). Revenue did fall sharply in 2024. Sources: idc.com, delloro.com.
Right · 100%We're also making the bold prediction that next year the Enterprise Class Wireless LAN market will break the $10 Billion mark, two years earlier than we predicted.
What happened. Dell'Oro's first full-year figure put 2023 enterprise WLAN revenue at a record $10bn. IDC (different scope) had 2023 up 7.6% on its $10.0bn 2022, about $10.8bn. Threshold call scored as a point forecast at $10bn; Dell'Oro's first published 2023 actual was $10bn. Sources: delloro.com, idc.com.
Source: Record Level 3Q 2022 Wireless LAN Revenues Defy Ongoing Supply Problems, According to Dell'Oro Group (press release) · 'next year'
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Dell'Oro Group’s own figures.
Wrong · 0%This year's market growth of nine percent will be mainly fueled by price increases, with unit shipments remaining constrained.
What happened. Enterprise WLAN revenue rose 31.4% in 2022 to $10.0bn (IDC). Dell'Oro's own figures showed 3Q22 up 32% year on year and a record $9.4bn for 2022. A 9% growth call against about 31% actual growth misses by more than 20 points. Backlogs cleared far faster than the call assumed. Sources: idc.com, delloro.com, delloro.com.
Source: Wireless LAN Backlogs Pile up to 10X Normal Levels, According to Dell'Oro Group (press release) · 'this year'
Still to fall due7 predictions
- Dec 2026
With prices rising, we expect triple-digit growth in Wi-Fi 7 revenue in 2026.
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Aug 2026 · source - Dec 2028
Some operators are delaying core transformation projects because memory shortages are driving up server prices, but we expect double-digit 5G Mobile Core Network revenue growth to resume in 2028.
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Jul 2026 · source - Dec 2026
We are predicting double-digit growth in WLAN revenue for 2026, but there remains a cloud on the horizon.
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Mar 2026 · source - Dec 2028
We expect that in 2028, Wi-Fi 7 sales will represent over 90 percent of Indoor AP revenues, with the first enterprise class Wi-Fi 8 APs appearing on the market late that year.
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Aug 2025 · source - Dec 2028
The Public Cloud-Managed LAN market is expected to exceed $12 billion in 2028.
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Apr 2024 · source - Dec 2028
The first AP shipments of the standard expected to be branded as 'Wi-Fi 8' are expected in 2028.
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Jan 2024 · source - Dec 2027
Campus NaaS Revenues to Reach $609 M by 2027, According to Dell'Oro Group
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Jun 2023 · source