- 43%
- Accuracy
- 32 of 41
- Analyst ranking
- 18
- Predictions scored
- 2
- Still to fall due
Wrong · 0%We therefore revised our projections, moving up the anticipated crossover point where Ethernet surpasses InfiniBand to 2027.
What happened. Dell'Oro reported that Ethernet passed InfiniBand in AI back-end switch sales in 2025 and was more than double InfiniBand's size for the year; it was above two-thirds of sales from 3Q25. Year call: the crossover was called for 2027 and happened in 2025 (Dell'Oro: Ethernet passed InfiniBand in AI back-end switch sales in 2025 and was more than double its size for the year). Scored early under the early-results ruling, since the crossover year is fixed. Under the year-call ruling, two or more years off is Wrong. Sources: delloro.com, delloro.com.
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Dell'Oro Group’s own figures.
Right · 100%Despite challenges in 2024, we expect Ethernet data center switch sales to resume in 2025 and beyond, propelled by several factors
What happened. Dell'Oro reported front-end data-centre switch sales up strong double digits to a record in 2Q25, 'consistent with our projections', and strong front-end sales again in 3Q25. No independent front-end/back-end split exists. Front-end spending returned to strong growth in 2025 on Dell'Oro's data. Sources: delloro.com, delloro.com.
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Dell'Oro Group’s own figures.
Mostly right · 75%In 2024, Celestica, Huawei, and NVIDIA led the Ethernet segment of the market, but we expect Accton, Arista, Cisco, Juniper, Nokia and other vendors to gain more traction in 2025
What happened. In 2025, Celestica and NVIDIA still led the Ethernet AI back-end segment with about 50% combined share. Arista rose to third; Accton, Arista and Cisco made the biggest share gains in 3Q25; Cisco began shipping to large hyperscalers; and HPE/Juniper won new accounts. Nokia was not named among the gainers, and Huawei dropped out of the top three. Most of the named vendors gained ground in 2025, but the incumbents kept the lead and there is no public evidence of Nokia gaining. Sources: delloro.com, delloro.com.
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Dell'Oro Group’s own figures.
Right · 100%Data Center Switch revenues in 2024 are on track to achieve double-digit growth, with further acceleration anticipated in 2025.
What happened. IDC put datacentre Ethernet switch revenue up 53.5% in 2025 (to $32.5bn), against 15.1% in 2024. Dell'Oro reported 1Q25 growth of more than 40%, the strongest since it began tracking the market in 2013. Growth accelerated sharply in 2025, as called. Sources: idc.com, idc.com, delloro.com.
Paraphrased. Source: Data Center Switch Sales Hit Record High in 3Q 2024 Bolstered by AI Infrastructure Buildouts (Dell'Oro Group press release)
Right · 100%We currently project a double-digit decline in campus switch sales in 2024.
What happened. Campus switch sales fell 20% in 2024 (Dell'Oro; revised to 19%). IDC put non-datacentre Ethernet switch revenue down 20.0%. 'A double-digit decline' is a named range (-10 to -19%). The first published 2024 actual was -20% (Dell'Oro, January 2025; IDC -20.0%), just outside the range, so the nearest edge (-19%) is scored: 1 point out, Right. Sources: delloro.com, delloro.com, idc.com.
Source: Campus Switch Sales to Surpass $100 B Between 2024 and 2028 (Dell'Oro Group press release)
Wrong · 0%While InfiniBand is expected to maintain its lead, Ethernet is forecast to make substantial gains, such as 20 revenue-share points by 2027.
What happened. Dell'Oro reported that Ethernet overtook InfiniBand in AI back-end networks in 2025, taking more than two-thirds of AI back-end switch sales in 3Q25, more than double InfiniBand's size for 2025 as a whole, and about two-thirds again in 1Q26. Scored early under the early-results ruling. The core claim, that InfiniBand would keep its lead through 2027, was broken in 2025 and cannot be restored, since the lead was not maintained. The 20-point Ethernet gain cannot be measured until 2027 data are out, but Ethernet's gain already far exceeds it. Sources: delloro.com, delloro.com.
Paraphrased. Source: AI Workloads Require New Network Buildouts, Expanding Data Center Switch Market by 50 Percent (Dell'Oro Group press release)
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Dell'Oro Group’s own figures.
Right · 100%As noted in the chart below, the majority of switch ports in AI back-end networks are expected to be 800 Gbps by 2025 and 1600 Gbps by 2027.
What happened. Dell'Oro reported that 800 Gbps switches were the vast majority of Ethernet switch shipments and revenue in AI back-end networks in 3Q25 and 4Q25, with Ethernet at more than two-thirds of AI back-end switch sales in 2025. InfiniBand's 2025 surge was also driven by 800 Gbps switches (Blackwell Ultra). On Dell'Oro's own data, 800G was the dominant speed in AI back-end networks by 2025. Sources: delloro.com, delloro.com.
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Dell'Oro Group’s own figures.
Mostly wrong · 25%Following three consecutive years of double-digit growth, the Ethernet data center switch market is expected to slow down in 2024 and grow at less than half the rate of 2023.
What happened. IDC put datacentre Ethernet switch revenue up 15.1% in 2024, against 13.6% in 2023. Dell'Oro itself reported double-digit growth and record sales for 2024, driven by AI back-end builds. 'Less than half the rate of 2023' is scored as a point forecast of half the 2023 rate: 6.8% on IDC's 13.6% for 2023. IDC's first published 2024 figure was 15.1%, a miss of 8.3 points: inside the 10-point Mostly wrong band. Growth did not halve; AI back-end spending more than offset the front-end slowdown. Sources: idc.com, idc.com, delloro.com, delloro.com.
Wrong · 0%We examined historical trends and interviewed various system vendors, Value-Added Resellers and System Integrators and are currently forecasting a high-single digit decline in the campus switch market in 2024.
What happened. Campus switch sales fell 20% in 2024 (Dell'Oro, January 2025; revised to 19% in February 2026). IDC put non-datacentre Ethernet switch revenue down 20.0%. 'High-single digit decline' is a named range (-7 to -9%). The first published 2024 fall was 20% (Dell'Oro, January 2025; IDC -20.0%), outside the range; scored from the nearest edge (-9%): 11 points out, past the 10-point band, so Wrong. Dell'Oro's later revision to 19% is not used. Sources: delloro.com, delloro.com, idc.com.
Source: Campus Switch Sales to Exceed $100 B Between 2023 and 2027 (Dell'Oro Group press release)
Wrong · 0%we have raised our revenue forecast for 2023 to show a high-single digit growth in this market.
What happened. Campus switch sales grew 'strong double-digits' to a record in 2023 (Dell'Oro). IDC put non-datacentre Ethernet switch revenue up 25.2%. 'High single digit' is a named range (7-9%). Actual growth was about 25% (IDC 25.2%), outside the range; scored from the nearest edge (9%): a miss of about 16 points, Wrong, even though the call came mid-year after first-half growth of 40-60%. Sources: delloro.com, idc.com.
Source: Campus Switch Sales to Exceed $100 B Between 2023 and 2027 (Dell'Oro Group press release)
Right · 100%As we head into 2024, however, we expect the market to go through a correction period.
What happened. Campus switch sales fell 20% in 2024 (Dell'Oro, later revised to 19%). IDC put non-datacentre Ethernet switch revenue down 20.0%. She called a 2024 correction nearly two years ahead, and the market fell about 20%. Sources: delloro.com, delloro.com, idc.com.
Source: Campus Switch Sales to Approach $100 B Between 2023 and 2027 (Dell'Oro Group press release)
Right · 100%This adoption by a wider set of customers, together with ongoing deployment at the hyperscalers, is expected to propel nearly triple-digit growth in 200/400 Gbps port shipments in 2023.
What happened. Dell'Oro's January 2024 review said 200/400 Gbps shipments 'nearly doubled in 2023'. IDC reported 200/400 GbE switch revenue (not ports) up 68.9% in 2023. 'Nearly triple-digit growth' is scored as 100%. Dell'Oro's January 2024 review said shipments 'nearly doubled' in 2023 (taken as about 100%; no exact figure is public), within a point or two of the forecast. IDC's 69% revenue rise fits near-doubling unit growth with falling prices. Sources: delloro.com, businesswire.com.
Source: Data Center Switch Market: A Look into 2023 (Dell'Oro Group blog, by Sameh Boujelbene)
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Dell'Oro Group’s own figures.
Right · 100%Despite all the concerns about the macroeconomic situation and a tough comparison with the year-ago period, we expect data center switch sales to grow double-digits and reach an all-time high in 2023.
What happened. IDC put datacentre Ethernet switch revenue up 13.6% in 2023. Dell'Oro reported double-digit growth and record sales levels for 2023. 'Double-digits' is a named range (10-19%). IDC's first published 2023 figure was 13.6% growth, inside the range, so Right; forecast_value is set to the nearest point of the range to the actual (the actual itself). The record-sales part was right too. Sources: idc.com, delloro.com.
Source: Data Center Switch Market: A Look into 2023 (Dell'Oro Group blog, by Sameh Boujelbene)
Wrong · 0%We predict 2.5/5.0 Gbps shipments to grow in excess of 50% in 2023, showing an accelerated growth rate compared to 2022.
What happened. Dell'Oro's quarterly campus reports showed 2.5/5.0 Gbps port shipments more than doubling in 1Q23, nearly doubling in 2Q23, more than tripling in 3Q23 and rising more than 60% in 4Q23. No full-year figure was published. 'In excess of 50%' is scored as a point forecast of 50%. No full-year figure was published; Dell'Oro's quarterly growth rates (more than 100%, nearly 100%, more than 200%, more than 60%) put full-year growth at about 100% or more (actual_value is that estimate). Even the lowest quarter misses by more than 10 points. Sources: delloro.com, delloro.com, delloro.com, delloro.com.
Source: Campus Switch Market: A Look into 2023 (Dell'Oro Group blog, by Sameh Boujelbene)
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Dell'Oro Group’s own figures.
Wrong · 0%Although 2022 is coming above expectations, we have not changed our forecast for 2023 and still predict a low-single-digit growth in the market.
What happened. Campus switch sales hit a record in 2023, with growth Dell'Oro described as 'strong double-digits' (1Q23 +40%, 2Q23 nearly +60%, 3Q23 +24%, 4Q23 -4%). IDC put non-datacentre (campus and branch) Ethernet switch revenue up 25.2% in 2023. 'Low single digit' is a named range (1-3%). Actual growth was about 25% (IDC 25.2%), outside the range; scored from the nearest edge (3%): a miss of about 22 points, Wrong, though the direction and the record were right. Sources: delloro.com, idc.com, businesswire.com.
Wrong · 0%400 Gbps and higher speeds are forecast to comprise half of the spending, with 800 Gbps surpassing 400 Gbps by 2025.
What happened. Dell'Oro reported that 800 Gbps 'well surpassed 20 M ports' within three years of shipments and made up the vast majority of Ethernet switch shipments and revenue in AI back-end networks in 2025. In front-end networks, which were somewhat over half of sales, 100/200/400 Gbps made up about two-thirds. That implies 800G spending passed 400G in 2025, but no 2025 port split is public. Crehan said 800GbE was scaling nearly 100 times faster than 400GbE. Jay 25 Oct 2026: IDC full-year 2025 data show 800G at 16.4% of data-centre switch revenue against 43.9% for 200/400G, so 800G had not surpassed 400G by 2025. Sources: delloro.com, delloro.com, convergedigest.com.
Paraphrased. Source: Data Center Switch Market to Approach $100 B over the Next Five Years (Dell'Oro Group press release)
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Dell'Oro Group’s own figures.
Wrong · 0%We expect revenue from these shipments to be recognized this year, and project the 200/400 Gbps ports to more than double in 2022.
What happened. Dell'Oro estimated that 200/400 Gbps shipments nearly tripled in 2022. IDC reported 200/400 GbE switch revenue up more than 300% in 2022. 'More than double' is scored as a point forecast of 2x the 2021 level. Dell'Oro's own estimate was that shipments 'nearly tripled' (taken as 2.9x; no exact port count is public), 31% away from the forecast. Under the level bands 25% or more either way is Wrong, and direction earns nothing. IDC's revenue rise of more than 300% points the same way. Sources: delloro.com, idc.com.
Source: Predictions 2022: Data Center Switch Market (Dell'Oro Group blog, by Sameh Boujelbene)
Half right · 50%We are currently projecting that the data center switch market will grow by double digits in 2022, with the Cloud segment growing almost at twice the rate of the non-Cloud.
What happened. Data-centre Ethernet switch revenue rose 22.6% in 2022 (IDC). Dell'Oro's own reports showed a record 2022, with quarterly growth of 15% to over 20%. 'Double digits' is a named range (10-19%). IDC's first published 2022 figure was 22.6% growth, outside the range, so the nearest edge (19%) is scored: 3.6 points out, Half right. The cloud-versus-non-cloud ratio was not checked separately. Sources: idc.com, delloro.com.
Source: Predictions 2022: Data Center Switch Market (Dell'Oro Group blog, by Sameh Boujelbene)
Still to fall due2 predictions
- Dec 2027
As noted in the chart below, the majority of switch ports in AI back-end networks are expected to be 800 Gbps by 2025 and 1600 Gbps by 2027.
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Jan 2024 · source - Dec 2026
the Ethernet Switch Data Center market is forecast to grow at a nearly double-digit CAGR between 2021 and 2026
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Feb 2022 · source