- 54%
- Accuracy
- 10 of 14
- Analyst ranking
- 8
- Predictions scored
- 3
- Still to fall due
Mostly wrong · 25%I predict that by July you will have full access to models that are at least as good as Mythos for code analysis.
What happened. Anthropic kept Claude Mythos Preview restricted and announced Claude Mythos for general use on 15 September 2026, about six weeks after the deadline. This pass found no widely available model shown to match Mythos on code analysis by July. Full access to Mythos-class capability arrived, but after the deadline. Whether another model was 'at least as good' by July is arguable, so confidence is low. Sources: anthropic.com.
Source: More Mythos and Mozilla (The Security Industry, Substack) · 'by July', read generously as the end of July
Right · 100%So, unless things pick up for these stocks, I don't expect VC investment to surpass $17 billion in 2024.
What happened. IT-Harvest counted $16.1bn of cybersecurity investment in 2024, below the $17bn ceiling. A ceiling call made at mid-year against a $16.5bn run-rate; the year finished under it on IT-Harvest's own count. It is a cap, not a point forecast, so the number bands are not applied. Sources: stiennon.substack.com.
Source: 1H 2024 Cyber Security Industry Health Check (The Security Industry, Substack)
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IT-Harvest’s own figures.
Wrong · 0%GPT5 is going to be ten times as disruptive and it will likely be released this year.
What happened. OpenAI released GPT-5 on 7 August 2025, not in 2024. The release came about eight months after the deadline. Only the release-date part is scored, since 'ten times as disruptive' cannot be measured. Sources: en.wikipedia.org.
Source: You Ain't Seen Nothin' Yet (The Security Industry, Substack)
Right · 100%I do predict investments will bounce back to at least $15 billion and the drought in cybersecurity IPOs will end.
What happened. Rubrik, a data security company Stiennon had listed as an IPO candidate, listed on the NYSE on 25 April 2024, raising $752m at a $5.6bn valuation and ending the two-year gap in cybersecurity IPOs. At least one security IPO happened in 2024 after a two-year drought. Sources: en.wikipedia.org.
Source: 2023 Was Not the End of Cybersecurity (The Security Industry, Substack) · the post is a 2024 outlook
Right · 100%I don't believe boom times will return in 2024 but I do predict investments will bounce back to at least $15 billion
What happened. IT-Harvest counted $16.1bn of new investment across 432 cybersecurity vendors in 2024, up 60% from $10.05bn in 2023. A floor of $15bn against an actual $16.1bn on the same IT-Harvest basis, so the call was met. Sources: stiennon.substack.com.
Source: 2023 Was Not the End of Cybersecurity (The Security Industry, Substack)
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IT-Harvest’s own figures.
Wrong · 0%I expect Cato Networks to be one of the first to announce an IPO later in 2024.
What happened. Cato Networks did not file for or announce an IPO in 2024. It stayed private and raised more private funding in 2025 at a valuation of about $4.8bn. A named company doing a named thing in a set year; it did not happen. Sources: en.wikipedia.org.
Source: Cybersecurity IPOs (The Security Industry, Substack)
Mostly wrong · 25%I fully expect to see a unicorn come out of India in the next three years and investments to accelerate.
What happened. The only company reported as an Indian cybersecurity unicorn in the window is ZYBER 365, a Web3 and AI security start-up founded in May 2023 and headquartered in London. Indian outlets called it India's 109th unicorn after a $100m Series A at a $1.2bn valuation in July 2023, but Inc42 reported it had no product, and its MCA filings were questioned. This pass found no established India-based cybersecurity vendor valued at $1bn or more by January 2026. Stiennon meant a real Indian cybersecurity vendor growing into a $1bn company. The one claimed unicorn is London-based, had no product and was valued on a single disputed round, so it meets the letter of the call at most. The 'investments to accelerate' part is not scored. Sources: techloy.com, inc42.com, en.channeliam.com.
Source: India Is an Emerging Hotbed of Cybersecurity Startups (The Security Industry, Substack) · date + 3 years
Half right · 50%2022 is tracking toward $24 billion in funding
What happened. IT-Harvest's own year-end count put 2022 investment in cybersecurity vendors at $17.189bn (excluding Splunk and OpenText), down about $5bn on 2021. By October 2022 Stiennon had already cut his projection to 'on track to exceed $16 billion'. $24bn against an actual $17.2bn misses by about 40%, outside the 25% band. Funding did fall from the 2021 record, as the call implied, so it gets the right-direction band. Sources: stiennon.substack.com, stiennon.substack.com.
Paraphrased. Source: Richard Stiennon Talks about Security Yearbook 2022 (TechSpective, Tony Bradley)
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IT-Harvest’s own figures.
Still to fall due3 predictions
- Mar 2027
One more prediction: within 12 months more than 95% of vendors will be AI Security.
Cybersecurity · made Mar 2026 · source - Dec 2026
By the end of 2026, 95% of all SOCs will use AI agents including those of MSSPs.
Cybersecurity · made Mar 2026 · source - Jan 2026
We estimate that the market for API Security has already grown to $250 million and will hit $1 billion in three years.
Cybersecurity · made Jan 2023 · source