- 40%
- Accuracy
- 38 of 41
- Analyst ranking
- 4
- Predictions scored
- 18
- Still to fall due
Mostly wrong · 25%The datacom optical component market will grow 60%+ to reach over $16B in revenue during 2025
What happened. Cignal AI's first full-year 2025 report (April 2026) said datacom optical component revenue exceeded $19bn, more than 70% above 2024. $16bn against an actual of over $19bn is about 16% under, inside the 'under 25%' band. Sources: cignal.ai.
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Cignal AI’s own figures.
Wrong · 0%The high-speed Datacom optical component market is forecast to exceed $10 billion by 2025.
What happened. Cignal AI said 400G+ datacom modules broke $5bn of revenue in 3Q25 alone, and total datacom optical component revenue exceeded $19bn in 2025. No exact 2025 high-speed figure is public, but the second half alone was above $10bn. Threshold scored as a point forecast at $10bn; the 2025 high-speed market was far above it (H2 alone over $10bn, full year likely $15bn+), more than 25% off. Sources: cignal.ai, cignal.ai.
Source: 800GbE Module Growth Accelerates Due to AI (Cignal AI press release, 4Q23 Optical Components Report)
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Cignal AI’s own figures.
Half right · 50%Looking forward to upcoming Q4 results and into 2023, telecom component demand will continue its recovery, while near-term growth of datacom optics will soften as inventory is absorbed.
What happened. Datacom optics did soften: Cignal AI put full-year 2023 Datacom revenue down 4%. Telecom did not recover: Telecom optical component revenue fell 13% YoY in 1Q23, 20% in 2Q23 and 31% in 3Q23, with Cignal AI describing a bottom in Q3. Two-part call: the datacom softening came true, but telecom demand fell sharply through 2023 instead of recovering. Sources: cignal.ai, cignal.ai, cignal.ai, cignal.ai.
Source: Datacenter Optical Component Revenue Rebounds 14% in 3Q22 (Cignal AI press release) · 'into 2023' read as calendar 2023
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Cignal AI’s own figures.
Mostly wrong · 25%However, the segment is forecast to grow more than 8% in 2022.
What happened. Cignal AI's 4Q22 Optical Components Report (April 2023) said Telecom optical component revenue was flat for 2022, or up 8% if HG Genuine's revenue (down 72% in 4Q22) is excluded. Threshold scored as a point forecast at 8%; the headline actual was flat, an 8-point miss. On the ex-HG Genuine basis it would be Right, but HG Genuine was in the tracked base when the call was made. Sources: cignal.ai.
Source: Datacom Optical Component Revenue Nearly $5B in 2021 (Cignal AI press release)
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Cignal AI’s own figures.
Still to fall due18 predictions
- Dec 2030
it raised its forecast for the optical circuit switch (OCS) market to more than $8 billion by 2030.
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Jul 2026 · source - Dec 2026
800GbE now accounts for the majority of high-speed datacom module shipments, and unit shipments will more than double in 2026.
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Jun 2026 · source - Dec 2030
The ELSFP module market will exceed $100 million in 2026 and grow to more than $1.5 billion annually by 2030
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made May 2026 · source - Dec 2026
1.6TbE module shipments began ramping, heavily weighted to the fourth quarter. Almost 10 million are forecast for 2026.
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Apr 2026 · source - Dec 2029
Datacom optical component revenue surpassed $5 billion a quarter and will reach $30 billion in 2029
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Jan 2026 · source - Dec 2026
the 1.6TbE forecast will exceed 5 million in 2026.
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Jan 2026 · source - Dec 2029
The total market for Optical Circuit Switches (OCSs) will reach at least $2.5 billion by 2029
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Dec 2025 · source - Dec 2026
Cignal AI has sharply increased its forecast for 800ZR and 800ZR+ pluggable coherent modules to over 200,000 shipments in 2026.
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Jul 2025 · source - Dec 2025
1.6T optics will enter volume production in select Nvidia and hyperscale applications, but they will remain at a volume under 1M units for the year.
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made May 2025 · source - Dec 2026
large-scale CPO deployment is not expected for 3-5 years, but some initial deployments will start in 2026.
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Feb 2025 · source - Dec 2028
Total datacom optical component revenue forecast to approach $14 Billion by 2028
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Feb 2025 · source - Dec 2028
There is activity at multiple operators who are now applying significant resources to this area and will pave the way to a $1B+ market
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Jan 2025 · source - Dec 2026
The high-speed datacom optical market size is expected to expand from about $9 billion in 2024 to almost $12 billion in 2026
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Jan 2025 · source - Dec 2024
we anticipate that datacom segment revenue will double in 2024.
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Jun 2024 · source - Dec 2024
The market for embedded and pluggable coherent optical modules is forecast to exceed $6 billion in 2024.
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Apr 2024 · source - Dec 2024
Datacom shipments, especially 800GbE optics, are ramping up fast and shipped units are forecast to reach 8 million in 2024
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Apr 2024 · source - Dec 2027
Cignal AI anticipates that less than 10% of our 800GbE datacenter optics forecast will use Linear Drive.
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Aug 2023 · source - Dec 2022
Cignal AI expects that shipments of 400ZR/ZR+ modules will triple in 2022
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Mar 2022 · source