Baron Fung

What happened. Dell'Oro reported data-centre capex up 57 percent in 2025 (its first published full-year figure, 17 March 2026 release). "More than 30%" is scored as a point forecast of 30% under the threshold ruling. Actual 57%: 27 points out, more than 10, so Wrong. Sources: delloro.com.

Paraphrased. Source: Data Center Capex Surged 51 Percent to $455 Billion in 2024 (Dell'Oro press release)

Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Dell'Oro Group’s own figures.

What happened. Growth sped up rather than moderated: Dell'Oro reported data-centre capex up 57% in 2025 versus 51% in 2024, with Top 4 US cloud data-centre capex up 76%. The call was for slower growth in 2025; on Dell'Oro's own figures growth was faster. No hyperscaler paused. Sources: delloro.com, delloro.com.

Paraphrased. Source: Hyperscale Capex Surges 82 Percent in 3Q 2024 Fueled by AI Infrastructure Spending (Dell'Oro press release)

Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Dell'Oro Group’s own figures.

What happened. Dell'Oro reported 2024 data-centre capex up 51 percent to $455 billion (its first published full-year figure, 19 March 2025 release). Forecast 44%, actual 51%: 7 points out on a short-horizon call. Sources: delloro.com.

Paraphrased. Source: Hyperscale Capex Surges 82 Percent in 3Q 2024 Fueled by AI Infrastructure Spending (Dell'Oro press release)

Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Dell'Oro Group’s own figures.

What happened. Dell'Oro's first published full-year figures: worldwide data-centre capex up 51% in 2024 (19 March 2025 release) and 57% in 2025 (17 March 2026 release). 'Double-digit' is a named range (10-19%). Growth was 51% in 2024 and 57% in 2025, both outside the range; scored from the nearest edge (19%): misses of 32 and 38 points, so Wrong. The final year (2025) is entered as the actual. Sources: delloro.com, delloro.com.

Paraphrased. Source: Accelerated Servers Propelled Data Center Capex to 46 Percent Growth in 2Q 2024 (Dell'Oro press release)

Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Dell'Oro Group’s own figures.

What happened. Dell'Oro reported 2024 data-centre capex up 51 percent to $455 billion (its first published full-year figure, 19 March 2025 release). Forecast 35%, actual 51%: 16 points out, even with half the year's data in hand. Sources: delloro.com.

Paraphrased. Source: Accelerated Servers Propelled Data Center Capex to 46 Percent Growth in 2Q 2024 (Dell'Oro press release)

Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Dell'Oro Group’s own figures.

What happened. Combined capex of Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta rose about 62% in 2024 (company filings); Dell'Oro reported hyperscale data-centre capex up 82% in 3Q 2024. Forecast 17%, actual growth around 60%: a miss of over 40 points. Sources: platformonomics.com, delloro.com.

Paraphrased. Source: AI Investments to Lift Hyperscale Cloud Capex 17 Percent in 2024 (Dell'Oro press release)

What happened. NVIDIA, which held the large majority of the GPU market, reported data-centre revenue up 142% to $115.2bn in fiscal 2025 (Feb 2024 to Jan 2025). Dell'Oro reported accelerator revenue up 130% in 3Q 2024. GPU revenue roughly doubled or more, far above the 70% forecast. NVIDIA's segment includes networking and runs on a fiscal year, so the comparison is close but not exact. Sources: sec.gov, delloro.com.

Paraphrased. Source: AI Boosts the Server Semiconductor and Component Market to 29 Percent Growth in 3Q 2023 (Dell'Oro press release)

What happened. Combined capex of Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta rose about 62% in 2024 (company filings). Dell'Oro reported hyperscale data-centre capex up 82% in 3Q 2024 and total data-centre capex up 51% for the year. Forecast 13%; every measure of 2024 hyperscale spending grew by 50% or more. Sources: platformonomics.com, delloro.com, delloro.com.

Paraphrased. Source: Amazon, Meta, and Enterprise Spend to Drive Data Center Capex to 11 Percent Growth in 2024 (Dell'Oro press release)

What happened. Dell'Oro reported global data-centre capex surged 51 percent to $455 billion in 2024 (its first published full-year figure, 19 March 2025 release). Independently, combined capex of Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta rose about 62%. Forecast 11%, actual 51%: a 40-point miss. The AI build-out was badly underestimated. Sources: delloro.com, platformonomics.com.

Paraphrased. Source: Amazon, Meta, and Enterprise Spend to Drive Data Center Capex to 11 Percent Growth in 2024 (Dell'Oro press release)

What happened. Calendar 2023 cash capex (SEC filings): Microsoft $24.76bn to $35.21bn (+42%), Alphabet $31.48bn to $32.25bn (+2.4%); combined $56.2bn to $67.5bn, up about 20%. Dell'Oro's recap says both raised data-centre investment but gives no growth rates. Jay 25 Oct 2026: the call was that Microsoft and Google would each grow capex by double digits (10-19%). Alphabet grew about 2% and Microsoft about 42%, both outside the range and far from it. Sources: platformonomics.com, sec.gov, delloro.com.

Source: Global Data Center Capex Decelerates to 8 Percent Growth in 1Q 2023 (Dell'Oro press release)

What happened. Dell'Oro's own data had Top 4 US cloud data-centre capex at low to mid single-digit growth in 2023 (+1% in 3Q23; Nov 2023 full-year forecast mid single digits), down from over 30% in 2022. Company filings for total capex show about -2.5%, on a wider scope. Jay 25 Oct 2026: scored on Dell'Oro's own data-centre capex basis, which put Top 4 growth at low to mid single digits in 2023, inside the single-digit range. No exact full-year figure was published. Sources: platformonomics.com, sec.gov, delloro.com.

Source: Data Center Infrastructure Market: A Look into 2023 (Dell'Oro blog, by Baron Fung)

Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Dell'Oro Group’s own figures.

What happened. Dell'Oro reported worldwide data-centre capex grew 4 percent in 2023 (its first published full-year figure, 14 March 2024 release), to $260 billion, down from 15 percent in 2022. 'Single digits' is a range (1-9%). Dell'Oro's first published 2023 growth was 4%, inside the range, so Right; forecast_value is set to the nearest point of the range to the actual (the actual itself). Sources: delloro.com, delloro.com.

Paraphrased. Source: Hyperscale Data Center Capex on Track for 28 Percent Growth in 2022 (Dell'Oro press release)

Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Dell'Oro Group’s own figures.

What happened. Dell'Oro reported that global data-centre capex grew 15 percent to $241 billion in 2022. Forecast 17%, actual 15%: 2 points out. The March 2022 restatement ($240bn+) landed almost exactly. Sources: delloro.com.

Paraphrased. Source: Spending for the Hyperscale Cloud Service Providers to Surge 30 Percent in 2022 (Dell'Oro press release)

Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Dell'Oro Group’s own figures.

What happened. Dell'Oro's December 2022 release put hyperscale data-centre capex on track for 28 percent growth in 2022, and Fung's January 2023 blog put the Top 4 US cloud providers on track for 32 percent. No final full-year hyperscale figure was published in a release. Forecast 30%, Dell'Oro's own estimate 28% (Top 4: 32%), a miss of about 2 points. Sources: delloro.com, delloro.com.

Paraphrased. Source: Spending for the Hyperscale Cloud Service Providers to Surge 30 Percent in 2022 (Dell'Oro press release)

Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Dell'Oro Group’s own figures.