Alex Smith

What happened. Synergy Research put 2024 cloud infrastructure services revenue at $330bn, up $60bn from 2023 (about 22%). Canalys's own February 2025 release put 2024 growth at 20% ($267.7bn to $321.3bn). Fixed band: 20% forecast against 20-22% actual is within 10%. Sources: srgresearch.com, canalys.com.

Source: Worldwide cloud service spending to grow by 20% in 2024 (Canalys press release)

What happened. The 84% CAGR was Canalys's 2021-2025 path ($4.1bn in 2021 to $45bn+ in 2025). Omdia (same firm) reports ~$45bn in 2025, implying ~82% CAGR from 2021. Independent Futurum puts 2025 at >$21bn on a narrower basis. ~82% vs 84%: 2 points missed on the same series. The $45bn endpoint was met per the firm's own data. Sources: techpartner.news, techblog.comsoc.org, lemondeinformatique.fr, futurumgroup.com.

Source: A partner gives us a glimpse into the future (Canalys insight blog by Alex Smith)

Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on The Futurum Group’s own figures.

What happened. Canalys's own February 2024 release put 2023 growth at 18% ($247.1bn to $290.4bn). Synergy Research said 2024 growth (about 22%, $270bn to $330bn) was four points higher than 2023, which also implies about 18% for 2023. Fixed band: 23% forecast against about 18% actual is 28% off, outside the 25% band, but the market did grow. Sources: canalys.com, srgresearch.com.

Source: Worldwide cloud service spend to grow by 23% in 2023 (Canalys press release)

What happened. Microsoft raised euro cloud prices by 11% (pound 9%, Swedish krona 15%) from 1 April 2023, citing currency alignment with US dollar pricing, not energy. No hyperscaler raised European prices by anything like 30%. Fixed band: European prices did go up (right direction from zero), but the largest rise was 11% at one provider, far short of 30%, and it was driven by currency rather than energy. Sources: petri.com, ghacks.net.

Source: Growth in global cloud services spend slows to lowest rate ever in Q3 2022 (Canalys press release) · same quote frames hyperscaler planning 'in 2023'

What happened. Tech M&A fell sharply instead. Refinitiv data put 2022 technology deal value at $720bn, down 36% on 2021, and GlobalData put TMT deal value down 31%. Large deals still happened (Broadcom agreed to buy VMware for about $61bn in May 2022), but volumes were well below the 2021 flood. First-half 2023 figures were not checked. He expected the record pace to carry on; tech deal value instead dropped by about a third in 2022, though some very large deals still happened. Sources: lexgo.be, globaldata.com.

Source: Tech enters an era of inflation (Canalys insight blog by Alex Smith) · 18 months from publication

What happened. Big tech profits fell through 2022. In Q3 2022 the five largest US tech companies earned about $59.5bn combined, roughly 18% below a year earlier; Microsoft's net income fell 14% and Meta's more than halved, and Reuters reported Big Tech braced for dismal Q4 profits and more job cuts. Made in March 2022, after a record 2021 for tech earnings; profits at the largest tech firms fell sharply during 2022, as he said. A trend call with no number, so it scores as directional. Sources: business-standard.com, streetinsider.com, bscapitalmarkets.com.

Source: Tech enters an era of inflation (Canalys insight blog by Alex Smith)