Who called it right?
Tech analysts forecast markets for a living. We track the calls they make in public, check each one against what actually happened and rank them on how often they get it right
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- Analysts ranked
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- Predictions scored
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- Still to fall due
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- Average accuracy
Channelnomics expects the second half of 2024 to be better for vendors and partners, but the full-year results will still be flat relative to 2023.Larry Walsh · made Jun 2024 · IDC/GTDC North America distribution revenue ended 2024 down 1.1% (later described as flat), with Q4 2024 returning to…
the US federal channel opportunity will reach a record high $60.1 billion in 2024.Jay McBain · made Feb 2024 · Omdia later said the federal channel opportunity grew 2.4% in 2025 to $75.2bn, which implies about $73.4bn for 2024, a… Scored on Omdia’s own figures.
Total managed services revenue in the channel will grow 12% in 2024.Robin Ody · made Feb 2024 · Canalys's first published 2024 figure (MSP landscape round-up, late 2024) put managed services growth at 'just under… Scored on Omdia’s own figures.
How we scoreShow
1. Find the call
Public predictions from the last five years in VETTDD’s categories: reports, press releases, keynotes, interviews. Each one is quoted and linked.
2. Wait for the deadline
A prediction is only scored once its date has passed. Until then it’s listed as pending.
3. Check what happened
Against independent evidence where it exists: company results, filings, other firms’ data. Where none exists, we score on the analyst’s firm’s own figures and put a caveat on the verdict. Each verdict links its sources.
4. Weigh it
Calls looking more than two years ahead count one and a half. Calls made under six months out, or when the outcome was close to certain, count half. Trend calls with nothing to measure count half again, so nobody climbs the table by being vague or stating the obvious.
Growth-rate forecasts are scored on how many percentage points they missed by: within 1 point is Right, 2.5 Mostly right, 5 Half right, 10 Mostly wrong; further out, or growth called when the market fell, is Wrong. Dollar and unit forecasts are held to the number first stated and scored on how far off they were from the first published actual: within 5% is Right, 10% Mostly right, 15% Half right, under 25% Mostly wrong, and 25% or more either way Wrong. Calls like “more than X” are scored as X, and a big overshoot is a miss. Small samples: until an analyst has many verdicts, their accuracy is pulled towards the table average, as if they had 5 more average calls, so a handful of lucky calls can’t top the table. No independent evidence: the verdict is scored on the analyst’s firm’s own figures and carries a caveat. Analysts can reply to any verdict.