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Jay McBain
Analyst Index · The Channel

Jay McBain

Chief analyst, US, Omdia (was Canalys, Forrester)
82%
Accuracy
1 of 8
Analyst ranking
9
Predictions scored
39
Still to fall due
7 right1 mostly right1 mostly wrong
All 48RightWrongPending
All categories ▾
All categoriesArtificial IntelligenceInfrastructure & TelecomsCybersecurityThe ChannelLeadership & GTMSaaS
Scored predictions9
Mostly wrong · 25%Anthropic is going to IPO itself into a potential multi-trillion dollar value in the upcoming days.Artificial Intelligence · made Jun 2026 · due Jun 2026

What happened. Anthropic had only filed confidentially (1 June 2026). As of 23 Oct 2026 it had not listed: reports said a public S-1 could be filed that day, with a listing targeted for mid-November. Reported valuation talk is about $1.5-2 trillion. 'Upcoming days' missed by at least five months, and the valuation talk is below 'multi-trillion'. The IPO itself does look imminent, so the underlying call is not dead. Sources: pymnts.com, finance.yahoo.com, cnn.com.

Source: As predicted, the world's largest IPO successfully... (jaymcbain.com)

Specific · short-range · counts 0.5Medium confidence
Right · 100%Cloud infrastructure will reach $383 billion this yearInfrastructure & Telecoms · made Jul 2025 · due Dec 2025

What happened. Canalys/Omdia's quarterly figures for 2025 ($90.9bn, $95.3bn, $102.6bn, $110.9bn) add up to about $400bn. Synergy Research, which is independent, put 2025 at $419bn. The firm's own quarters sum to about $400bn, 4% above the forecast. Synergy's $419bn on a broader definition also confirms the market went past $383bn. Sources: ictbusiness.biz, telecoms.com, omdia.tech.informa.com, intelligentcio.com, srgresearch.com.

Source: LinkedIn post, 2025-07-01

Specific · counts 1Forecast $383bn · actual $399.7bnHigh confidence
Right · 100%the notebook and desktop segments should finish 2025 at 267.3 million units at a 4.4% growth rate.Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Jun 2025 · due Dec 2025

What happened. Omdia counted 278.7 million desktops and notebooks shipped in 2025, up 9.1% (first published as 279.5m, +9.2%). IDC, on a similar scope, counted 284.7 million, up 8.1%. The unit forecast was about 4% under the firm's own outturn, inside the 10% band. The growth rate was understated by about half (4.4% v 9%), as Windows 10 end-of-life and memory-price pull-forward lifted late 2025. Sources: omdia.tech.informa.com, idc.com.

Source: LinkedIn post, 2025-06-26

Specific · counts 1Forecast 267.3 million units · actual 278.7 million unitsHigh confidence
Right · 100%Walmart has been the largest (revenue) company in the world since 2002, and that will change in 2025.Leadership & GTM · made Apr 2025 · due Dec 2025

What happened. Amazon reported about $717bn of revenue for calendar 2025; Walmart reported $713.2bn for its fiscal year to 31 Jan 2026. Press reports in Feb 2026 said Amazon had overtaken Walmart as the world's largest company by sales. Amazon passed Walmart on annual revenue for the 2025 reporting year, though only by about $4bn and with mismatched fiscal years. Sources: nasdaq.com, ktvz.com.

Source: LinkedIn post, 2025-04-24

Specific · counts 1High confidence
Right · 100%The APAC tech market will hit $1.5 trillion in 2025 (growing 8%) and 72.1% will go to, through, and with partners in the region.The Channel · made Dec 2024 · due Dec 2025

What happened. Omdia's Jan 2026 outlook has APAC at 27% of a $6.07tn market in 2026, growing 9%. That implies about $1.50tn for 2025. No 2025 partner share for APAC was published in what was found (Omdia gives 68.6% for 2026). The firm's later figures imply the $1.5tn headline almost exactly. The 72.1% partner share could not be checked. Sources: omdia.tech.informa.com, linkedin.com.

Source: LinkedIn post, 2024-12-04

Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Omdia’s own figures.

Specific · counts 1Forecast $1.5tn · actual $1.5tnLow confidence
Right · 100%Public cloud will surpass $300 billion in revenue in next 12 months and still managing to grow at 20%.Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Jul 2024 · due Jul 2025

What happened. Canalys put 2024 cloud infrastructure services spending at $321.3bn, up about 20%, and quarterly spend kept growing above 20% through mid-2025. Cloud revenue passed $300bn at about 20% growth within the window, on his firm's own tracker. Sources: dcpostmea.com, telecoms.com.

Source: LinkedIn post, 2024-07-08 · next 12 months

Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Omdia’s own figures.

Specific · near-certain · counts 0.5Forecast $300bn · actual $321.3bnHigh confidence
Mostly right · 75%the US federal channel opportunity will reach a record high $60.1 billion in 2024.The Channel · made Feb 2024 · due Dec 2024

What happened. Omdia later said the federal channel opportunity grew 2.4% in 2025 to $75.2bn, which implies about $73.4bn for 2024, a record. The scope seems to have been widened since the $60.1bn forecast; no 2024 figure on the original basis was found. The 2024 record happened, and the firm's later figure is about 18% above the forecast. That is within the 25% band, but a scope change probably explains the gap. Sources: omdia.tech.informa.com.

Source: LinkedIn post, 2024-02-12

Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Omdia’s own figures.

Specific · counts 1Forecast $60.1bn · actual $73.4bnLow confidence
Right · 100%By 2025, cloud marketplaces will grow to more than $45 billion, representing an 84% CAGR. ... 'The marketplace route to market is on fire and cannot be ignored by any channel leader.The Channel · made Jan 2023 · due Dec 2025

What happened. Omdia (Oct 2025) put 2024 hyperscaler marketplace sales at $30B and gave 2025 category figures (infrastructure software $10.5B, DevOps $9.1B, business apps $9.1B) as 63% of total spend, which implies roughly $45-46B for 2025. But Canalys's own Aug 2024 release had put 2023 at only $16B, so the 2025 figure lands on target only after Canalys/Omdia restated the market's size. No independent tally exists; AWS, Microsoft and Google do not disclose marketplace GMV. The firm's own 2025 figure works out at about $45B, so on its own numbers the call landed. It only lands because the base was restated from $16B (2023) to $30B (2024), and nobody outside Canalys/Omdia measures this market. Sources: omdia.tech.informa.com, intelligentcio.com, channeldrive.in.

Source: Canalys: Cloud marketplace sales to be > $45 billion by 2025 (IEEE ComSoc Technology Blog)

Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Omdia’s own figures.

Specific · long-range · counts 1.5Forecast $45bn · actual $45.5bnLow confidence
Right · 100%By 2025 AWS Marketplace will become a top 10 distributor in EMEA, as marketplace sales of third-party technologies, sold via channel partners, accelerate rapidly.The Channel · made Oct 2022 · due Dec 2025

What happened. In March 2025 McBain wrote on LinkedIn that Canalys's marketplace forecast had 'made AWS a Top 10 distributor in only a few years', ranking it alongside TD SYNNEX, Ingram Micro, Arrow and ALSO. In Sept 2024 he said on a podcast that it had already happened. AWS does not disclose marketplace sales, and no independent distributor ranking that includes AWS was found. The only evidence says it happened before the deadline, and it comes from McBain. Canalys's own marketplace sizing makes it plausible, but no independent check exists. Sources: itchanneloxygen.com, theultimatepartner.com.

Source: Canalys Forum, Highlights Blog (Ultima, archived)

Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Omdia’s own figures.

Specific · long-range · counts 1.5Low confidence
Still to fall due39 predictions
  1. Mar 2027The Magnificent 7, who are fueling an almost $7 trillion build-out, will take an overnight 25% haircut on their stock prices.Artificial Intelligence · made Oct 2026 · source
  2. Dec 2027Infrastructure (servers, storage, networking, power, cooling) drops by 30%.Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Oct 2026 · source
  3. Dec 2027The semiconductor industry (chips, manufacturing, supply chain) will also drop in half.Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Oct 2026 · source
  4. Dec 2027The multi-trillion dollar IPOs/valuations of companies like SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI will drop by over half.Artificial Intelligence · made Oct 2026 · source
  5. Dec 2027Impact: $20 trillion will be erased from public and private capital markets.Artificial Intelligence · made Oct 2026 · source
  6. Mar 2027Prediction: the AI bubble will burst in March of 2027.Artificial Intelligence · made Oct 2026 · source
  7. Oct 2028The $204.8 billion in cyber services delivered this year has (at least) another $100 billion being added in AI-security, compliance, and governance over the next couple of years.Cybersecurity · made Oct 2026 · source
  8. Dec 2031The valuations are considerably off their business model and you will see them start to sell off these divisions/subsidiaries by 2031 - back to the channel at a deflated cost.The Channel · made Sep 2026 · source
  9. Dec 2026The Canadian tech market will reach $130.3 billion in 2026, growing 7.1% year-on-year, the fastest pace since 2017.The Channel · made May 2026 · source
  10. May 2031It took 56 years (as the fastest growing industry each year) to reach $6.07 trillion this year in hardware, software, IT services, and telco. We are just about to double that in the next 3-5 years.Leadership & GTM · made May 2026 · source
  11. Dec 2026Partner share of IT spending 'projected to drop to ~66.7% by 2026The Channel · made Apr 2026 · source
  12. Dec 2026The Index is projected to grow 11.8% at the midpoint in 1Q26 and 11.7% for the whole of 2026. That would deliver a midpoint forecast of $63.7 billion for FY2026.Cybersecurity · made Mar 2026 · source
  13. Dec 2030Omdia forecasts more than $6.4 trillion in data center investment through 2030Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Feb 2026 · source
  14. Dec 2026Looking forward to the rest of 2026, the Titans’ index is forecast to grow 18.7% to $2.83 trillion.Leadership & GTM · made Feb 2026 · source
  15. Dec 2030The enterprise agentic AI software market will reach $41.8 billion in 2030, with broader GenAI software growing to $122.8 billion.Artificial Intelligence · made Feb 2026 · source
  16. Dec 2030So, yes, the technology industry will maintain its growth above other industries until 2030.Leadership & GTM · made Feb 2026 · source
  17. Dec 2030Worldwide IT spending is projected to increase from $6.07 trillion in 2026 to $8.49 trillion in 2030, a 9.1% CAGRLeadership & GTM · made Feb 2026 · source
  18. Dec 2026SMB IT spending represents 39.2% of the total addressable IT market in 2026. Spending is projected to rise 6.7% in 2026The Channel · made Jan 2026 · source
  19. Dec 2026OpenAI, who is responsible for the fastest growing product in history still isn't public, but that will change in 2026 and you will likely see Sam Altman join this Top 20.Artificial Intelligence · made Dec 2025 · source
  20. Dec 2026the IT market in 2026 will grow in double-digits (10.2%) as the world economy barely cracks 2% growth.Leadership & GTM · made Dec 2025 · source
  21. Dec 2035it ended up being 100% correct - not only for the past decade, but likely the next decade as well.The Channel · made Dec 2025 · source
  22. Dec 2030We have channel partner led services growing from $59 billion globally today to $267 billion by 2030, a 35.3% CAGR.Artificial Intelligence · made Oct 2025 · source
  23. Sep 2030AI infrastructure, expected at $7 trillion over next 5 years, 81% will land in large enterprise and government.Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Sep 2025 · source
  24. Dec 2028Omdia's five-year capex growth outlook is 18.3% CAGR reaching $753 billion in 2028.Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Jun 2025 · source
  25. Dec 20272026 will also be positive and 2027 is looking at a negative dip.Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Jun 2025 · source
  26. Dec 2045The new 20 year era of AI will create the world's first trillionaires.Artificial Intelligence · made Jun 2025 · source
  27. Dec 2026SaaS and cloud service providers are growing at over 20%, with annual run rates poised to hit $1 trillion in 2026.SaaS · made Feb 2025 · source
  28. Dec 2028With 261 companies driving US$7.46 billion in revenue in 2024, this ecosystem is rapidly evolving towards a projected US$13.48 billion by 2028The Channel · made Jan 2025 · source
  29. Dec 2025System Integrators which have historically represented 62.5% of revenue will shrink slightly to below 60% in 2025. Services led partners (including MSPs) will see their share top 30%The Channel · made Nov 2024 · source
  30. Dec 2027With Nvidia set to join the PC CPU market, ARM-based processors will account for 1 in 4 laptops shipped by 2027.Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Oct 2024 · source
  31. Dec 2027By 2027, the tech industry will be worth $6.3 trillion. In the next decade, spending will have doubled from this year's total to exceed $10 trillion.Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Oct 2024 · source
  32. Dec 2028we are predicting a 19.7% (CAGR) growth in global edge ICT services thru 2028.Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Aug 2024 · source
  33. Dec 2027we are predicting that more than 50% of sales via Amazon Web Services (AWS), Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud marketplaces will flow through the channel by 2027!The Channel · made Aug 2024 · source
  34. Dec 2028Enterprise software sales through hyperscaler cloud marketplaces ... are projected to reach US$85 billion by 2028, rising from US$16 billion in 2023.The Channel · made Aug 2024 · source
  35. Dec 2028Fueled by AI, It will grow to $590 billion by 2028.Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Jul 2024 · source
  36. Dec 2027We're calling 11% growth year on year going forward.The Channel · made Jan 2024 · source
  37. Dec 2028Moving forward five years, the opportunity becomes $158bn in annual compounded growth rate of 59.3%.Artificial Intelligence · made Nov 2023 · source
  38. Dec 2027The channel/partner ecosystem technology space will grow another 128% to $8.9 billion by 2027SaaS · made Sep 2022 · source
  39. Dec 2025Canalys estimates that by 2025, hyperscalers will rely on partners for nearly a third of their marketplace transactionsThe Channel · made Jul 2022 · source
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