Chris Quilty
- 62%
- Accuracy
- 8 of 41
- Analyst ranking
- 5
- Predictions scored
- 0
- Still to fall due
Half right · 50%Quilty Space estimates that Starlink will hit 7.6 million subscribers in 2025, and reach $12.3 billion in revenue in 2025.
What happened. SpaceX's S-1, as reported by Via Satellite, gives 8.9 million Starlink subscribers in 2025, up from 4.4 million in 2024. The S-1 also gives 10.3 million at 31 March 2026. 7.6m is 14.6% below the actual 8.9m: outside 10%, inside the 15% band. He under-called subscriber growth. Sources: satellitetoday.com, sec.gov.
Paraphrased. Source: Quilty Space Issues Estimate on SpaceX's Starlink 2024 Revenue Growth (Via Satellite)
Mostly right · 75%Quilty Space estimates that Starlink will hit 7.6 million subscribers in 2025, and reach $12.3 billion in revenue in 2025.
What happened. SpaceX's S-1 reports 2025 Connectivity segment revenue, driven by Starlink, of $11,387m. $12.3bn is 8.0% above the actual $11.39bn: outside 5%, inside the 10% band. Sources: sec.gov, satellitetoday.com.
Paraphrased. Source: Quilty Space Issues Estimate on SpaceX's Starlink 2024 Revenue Growth (Via Satellite)
Right · 100%We expect Starlink to achieve positive free cash flow for the first time in 2024.
What happened. SpaceX does not report Starlink free cash flow. On the S-1 segment figures, Connectivity's EBITDA minus capex was about -$1.1bn in 2023 ($1,353m against $2,455m capex). In 2024 it was about +$0.05bn ($3,553m against $3,498m capex). So the segment turned roughly cash-positive for the first time in 2024, by a thin margin. The best available proxy (segment EBITDA less capex) went from clearly negative in 2023 to just positive in 2024, as he forecast. The margin is thin, and the proxy ignores working capital and tax. Sources: sec.gov.
Mostly right · 75%Quilty Space's report forecasts Starlink will reach $3.8 billion EBITDA in 2024.
What happened. SpaceX does not publish Starlink EBITDA. Its S-1 segment table gives Connectivity 2024 operating income of $2,006m, depreciation and amortisation of $1,508m and impairment of $39m, which add up to an EBITDA of about $3.55bn. $3.8bn is about 7% above the EBITDA derived from SpaceX's own S-1 segment figures ($3.55bn): outside 5%, inside the 10% band. Sources: sec.gov.
Paraphrased. Source: Starlink On Track to Hit $6.6B in Revenue This Year, Quilty Report Estimates (Via Satellite)
Half right · 50%For 2024, we're forecasting revenues of about $6.6 billion — that would be up 80% over 2023.
What happened. SpaceX's S-1 (filed 20 May 2026) reports Connectivity segment revenue, driven by Starlink, of $7,599m in 2024, up from $3,869m in 2023. This was the first published full-year figure. $6.6bn against SpaceX's first published 2024 figure of $7.6bn is 13.1% under: outside 10%, inside the 15% band. He under-shot the growth (actual +96% against his +80%); the level governs. Sources: sec.gov, satellitetoday.com.
Source: Starlink On Track to Hit $6.6B in Revenue This Year, Quilty Report Estimates (Via Satellite)