- 43%
- Accuracy
- 33 of 41
- Analyst ranking
- 10
- Predictions scored
- 2
- Still to fall due
Mostly wrong · 25%TechInsights expects IC sales to grow 19% in 2025.
What happened. Hutcheson’s Jan 2026 Chip Insider: 2025 IC sales of $737B, close to +26% year on year. WSTS/SIA total semiconductors (not ICs only) rose 25.6% to $791.7B. +19% against about +26%: missed by 7 points (Mostly wrong). WSTS total-market growth of 25.6% supports the actual. Sources: techinsights.com, semiconductors.org.
Source: The Chip Insider – The Chip Insider’s Strategic Forecast for 2025 (G. Dan Hutcheson) · "in 2025"
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on TechInsights’s own figures.
Right · 100%Equipment will be down by less than 5% this year, versus a downturn average of -38% in the period between 2000 and 2010. It too should also reverse up next year.
What happened. SEMI (Apr 2025): worldwide semiconductor equipment billings rose 10% to $117.1B in 2024. He called equipment back to growth in 2024; billings rose 10%. Sources: semi.org.
Source: The Chip Insider – Happenings, Comments, Questions & Answers (G. Dan Hutcheson) · "next year"
Right · 100%Anyway, currently we're at the chip market being down this year by just over 10%, similar to 2019's mild cycle. It should reverse to up in 2024.
What happened. WSTS/SIA: 2024 semiconductor sales rose 19.1% to $627.6B. He called a return to growth in 2024 and the market grew 19.1%. Sources: semiconductors.org.
Source: The Chip Insider – Happenings, Comments, Questions & Answers (G. Dan Hutcheson) · "in 2024"
Half right · 50%Equipment will be down by less than 5% this year, versus a downturn average of -38% in the period between 2000 and 2010.
What happened. SEMI (Apr 2024): 2023 equipment billings fell 1.3% to $106.3B. Threshold scored as a point forecast at -5%: actual -1.3% is 3.7 points away (Half right). Sources: semi.org, iconnect007.com.
Source: The Chip Insider – Happenings, Comments, Questions & Answers (G. Dan Hutcheson) · "this year"
Half right · 50%2023 semiconductor sales are expected to slip 4%, dipping to $595B – less than 1% difference from December’s projections.
What happened. WSTS/SIA first published 2023 sales of $526.8B, down 8.2%. No TechInsights first full-year 2023 figure was found publicly. Scored on the growth rate: -4% against -8.2% is a 4.2-point miss (Half right). The $595B level is on TechInsights’ larger base and has no like-for-like actual (WSTS $526.8B is a different basis), so release-level scoring could not be applied. Sources: semiconductors.org.
Source: TechInsights' Semiconductor Analytics Report (G. Dan Hutcheson), report 32 · forecast for calendar 2023
Wrong · 0%IC sales are expected to be down 6% and Semi Equipment off 14%, with WFE down 16%.
What happened. SEMI (Apr 2024): wafer processing equipment sales rose 1% in 2023 and other front-end segments grew 10%, while total equipment fell 1.3%. A 16% fall against roughly flat-to-up WFE (wafer processing +1%): missed by about 17 points. SEMI wafer processing is a close but not identical proxy for WFE; the verdict holds on any reasonable WFE measure. Sources: semi.org, iconnect007.com.
Source: 2023 Forecast, When Forecasting fails (The Chip Insider, G. Dan Hutcheson) · 2023 projections
Wrong · 0%IC sales are expected to be down 6% and Semi Equipment off 14%, with WFE down 16%.
What happened. SEMI (WWSEMS, Apr 2024): worldwide semiconductor equipment billings slipped 1.3% to $106.3B in 2023. -14% against -1.3%: missed by 12.7 points, beyond the 10-point Wrong line. Sources: semi.org, iconnect007.com.
Source: 2023 Forecast, When Forecasting fails (The Chip Insider, G. Dan Hutcheson) · 2023 projections
Right · 100%TechInsights forecasts semiconductor sales will reach $637B in 2022, with Y/Y growth of 8% that slides to -2% in 2023.
What happened. TechInsights' first published 2022 figure (Hutcheson report, early Jan 2023): sales grew 5% to a record $621B. $637B against TechInsights’ own first actual of $621B is 2.6% high, inside the 5% band. WSTS uses a smaller base ($573.5B), so it is not like for like for the level. Baseline is the 2021 level implied by the release ($637B / 1.08). Sources: techinsights.com.
Source: TechInsights' Semiconductor Analytics Report (G. Dan Hutcheson), report 17 · forecast for calendar 2022
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on TechInsights’s own figures.
Mostly wrong · 25%TechInsights lowered its 2022 semiconductor forecast to +8% and 2023 to -2%.
What happened. WSTS/SIA first published 2023 sales of $526.8B, down 8.2%. No TechInsights first full-year 2023 figure was found in public pages (Hutcheson put the 2023 decline at "just over 10%" in Nov 2023). -2% against -8.2%: missed by 6.2 points (Mostly wrong). The Dec 2022 "low-single digits" restatement scores the same (nearest edge -3%, miss 5.2). Sources: semiconductors.org, techinsights.com.
Source: TechInsights' Semiconductor Analytics Report (G. Dan Hutcheson), report 12 · forecast for calendar 2023
Mostly wrong · 25%TechInsights' 2022 Forecast was upped from 10% to 14% based on higher 4Q21 results.
What happened. TechInsights' first published 2022 figure (early Jan 2023, also bylined by Hutcheson): semiconductor sales grew 5% to a record $621B. WSTS/SIA first published +3.2% ($573.5B). Forecast +14% against TechInsights’ own first actual of +5%: missed by 9 points (Mostly wrong band). Against WSTS (+3.2%) the miss would be 10.8 points (Wrong). Sources: techinsights.com, semiconductors.org.
Source: TechInsights' 2022 Semiconductor Forecast Raised to 14% (G. Dan Hutcheson, Semiconductor Analytics) · forecast for calendar 2022
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on TechInsights’s own figures.