- 58%
- Accuracy
- 19 of 50
- Analyst ranking
- 9
- Predictions scored
- 7
- Still to fall due
Right · 100%total PC shipments in 2025 forecast to increase by just 2% annually. With a considerable portion of Windows refresh activity set to occur after ... October 2025, growth in 2026 is expected to come in at 4%.
What happened. Omdia first put 2025 US PC shipments at 71.5 million units, up 3% from 2024, in its March 2026 release. The release states a level, which governs: 70.4m against 71.5m is 1.5% low, within the 5% band, so Right. Sources: web.archive.org.
Paraphrased. Source: US PC shipments up 15% in Q1 2025 (Canalys, now part of Omdia, press release, 30 Jun 2025)
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Omdia’s own figures.
Right · 100%Looking ahead, the PC market is set for accelerating growth, primarily driven by commercial demand as businesses prepare for the end of Windows 10
What happened. Omdia's first full-year figure put 2025 PC shipments at 279.5 million units, up 9.2%, against 3.8% growth in 2024. Q4 2025 rose 10.1%. Growth accelerated from 3.8% in 2024 to 9.2% in 2025, with Windows 10 end of support cited as the driver. Sources: businesswire.com, emsnow.com.
Source: Global PC shipments grow 4.6% in Q4 2024 (Canalys press release, 10 Jan 2025) · the release frames 2025 as the year of accelerating growth
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Omdia’s own figures.
Mostly wrong · 25%We expect one in five PCs shipped this year to be AI-capable, incorporating a dedicated chipset or block, such as an NPU, to run on-device AI workloads.
What happened. Canalys (now part of Omdia) reported in February 2025 that 17% of PCs shipped in 2024 were AI-capable. 'One in five' is a 20% share against an actual 17%, which is 17.6% too high: outside the 15% band, under 25%, so Mostly wrong. Sources: canalys.com.
Source: Global PC market returns to growth in Q4 2023 (Canalys press release, 10 Jan 2024)
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Omdia’s own figures.
Right · 100%Looking ahead, full-year 2024 shipments are forecast to hit 267 million units, landing 8% higher than in 2023
What happened. Canalys's first published full-year figure put 2024 PC shipments (desktops, notebooks and workstations) at 255.5 million units, up 3.8%. The stated level governs: 267m against 255.5m is 4.5% too high, within the 5% band, so Right. On growth alone (8% vs 3.8%) it would be Half right. Sources: canalys.com.
Paraphrased. Source: Global PC market set for recovery, forecast to grow 8% in 2024 (Canalys press release, 30 Nov 2023)
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Omdia’s own figures.
Mostly wrong · 25%Beyond that, the market is forecasted to grow 9% in 2024 and 12% in 2025.
What happened. Omdia (which now owns Canalys) first put 2025 US PC shipments at 71.5 million units, up 3% from 2024, in its March 2026 release. Only a growth rate was stated. 12% forecast against 3% actual is a miss of 9 points: within 10 points, so Mostly wrong. Sources: web.archive.org.
Paraphrased. Source: US PC market shows signs of improvement in Q2 2023 (Canalys press release, 25 Sep 2023)
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Omdia’s own figures.
Half right · 50%Beyond that, the market is forecasted to grow 9% in 2024 and 12% in 2025.
What happened. Canalys's first published full-year figure put 2024 US PC shipments at 69.2 million units, up 5.2% from 65.8 million. Only a growth rate was stated. 9% forecast against 5.2% actual is a miss of 3.8 points: within 5 points, so Half right. Sources: canalys.com.
Paraphrased. Source: US PC market shows signs of improvement in Q2 2023 (Canalys press release, 25 Sep 2023)
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Omdia’s own figures.
Mostly wrong · 25%Canalys expects an even smaller shipment decline of 4% in Q3 2023 before the market bounces back to 12% growth in Q4.
What happened. Canalys's first published figure put US PC shipments up 3.3% year on year in Q4 2023, at 16.7 million units. 12% forecast against 3.3% actual is a miss of 8.7 points: within 10 points, so Mostly wrong. Sources: canalys.com.
Paraphrased. Source: US PC market shows signs of improvement in Q2 2023 (Canalys press release, 25 Sep 2023)
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Omdia’s own figures.
Right · 100%Consumers and businesses will remain cautious about outlays on new PCs in the short term, with significant market recovery only expected to kick in during the fourth quarter of 2023.
What happened. Canalys reported that worldwide PC shipments grew 3% year on year in Q4 2023 to 65.3 million units, ending a run of seven quarters of decline. Q3 2023 had still been down year on year. The market returned to growth in Q4 2023, the quarter he named, and not before. The rebound was modest (3%) rather than 'significant'. Sources: canalys.com.
Source: Global PC shipments drop 33% in Q1 2023 (Canalys press release, 10 Apr 2023)
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Omdia’s own figures.
Mostly right · 75%Shipments in 2022 were down by 16%, and we expect a further contraction in 2023, but in both years, total volumes will remain higher than in the pre-pandemic era of 2019.
What happened. Canalys's first published full-year figure put 2023 PC shipments at 247 million units, down 13% from 2022. That was a further contraction, but below 2019's 268.1 million (Canalys, Jan 2020). The call sets a range for 2023: below 2022's 285.1m and above 2019's 268.1m. The actual 247m is outside it, so it is scored from the nearest edge (268.1m), which is 8.5% above the actual: Mostly right on the 5/10/15/25% bands. Sources: canalys.com, canalys.com.
Source: Global PC shipments fall 29% in Q4 2022 (Canalys press release, 11 Jan 2023)
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Omdia’s own figures.
Still to fall due7 predictions
- Dec 2027
PC market shipments are forecast to fall 24% year on year in Q4 2026, followed by a further 7% decline in 2027.
The Channel · made Oct 2026 · source - Dec 2026
PC market shipments are forecast to fall 24% year on year in Q4 2026, followed by a further 7% decline in 2027.
The Channel · made Oct 2026 · source - Dec 2026
With a considerable portion of Windows refresh activity set to occur after the Windows 10 end-of-support deadline in October 2025, growth in 2026 is expected to come in at 4%.
The Channel · made Jun 2025 · source - Dec 2025
we anticipate that AI-capable PCs will account for 35% of worldwide shipments in 2025.
The Channel · made Jan 2025 · source - Dec 2028
In 2028, Canalys expects vendors to ship 205 million AI-capable PCs, representing a staggering compound annual growth rate of 44% between 2024 and 2028.
The Channel · made Mar 2024 · source - Dec 2025
AI-capable PC shipments projected to surpass 100 million in 2025, 40% of all PC shipments.
The Channel · made Mar 2024 · source - Dec 2027
By 2027, Canalys forecasts that over 170 million AI-capable PCs will be shipped, with nearly 60% being deployed in commercial settings.
The Channel · made Jan 2024 · source