- 56%
- Accuracy
- 23 of 50
- Analyst ranking
- 26
- Predictions scored
- 8
- Still to fall due
Right · 100%Worldwide shipments of AR/VR headsets combined with display-less smart glasses are expected to grow 39.2% in 2025 with volumes reaching 14.3 million units.
What happened. IDC (23 Mar 2026): XR device shipments (headsets plus glasses) grew 44.4% in 2025. No level is given; on the implied 2024 base of about 10.25m, that is about 14.8m. 14.3m against about 14.8m is 3.3% under (release-level rule). On the rate alone, +39.2% against +44.4% is a 5.2-point miss (Mostly wrong). Sources: idc.com, idc.com.
Source: From Gaming to Gaining: AR/VR Headsets and Smart Glasses Go Mainstream, says IDC
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IDC’s own figures.
Mostly right · 75%Tablets are not expected to fare much better as shipments are anticipated to shrink 0.8% in 2025 to 143.3 million.
What happened. IDC (24 Feb 2026): 151.9 million tablets shipped in 2025, up 5%. 143.3m against 151.9m is 5.7% under, inside the 10% band. Sources: idc.com.
Source: IDC Adjusts PC and Tablet Forecasts but Still Expects Commercial Demand to Provide Growth
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IDC’s own figures.
Mostly wrong · 25%Growth is expected to slow to 3.9% in 2025 as large markets such as US and India along with devices such as smartwatches and hearables approach maturity.
What happened. IDC wearables market page (updated 25 Mar 2026): shipments grew 9.1% in 2025 to 611.5 million. IDC's 2024 base rose from 534.6m to about 560.5m between releases. +3.9% against +9.1% is a 5.2-point miss. IDC's restated 2024 base explains some of the gap, but the reported rate is the like-for-like figure. Sources: web.archive.org.
Source: Wearables to Face Continued Growth While Giving Way to New Form Factors, According to IDC
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IDC’s own figures.
Mostly right · 75%Smartwatches are expected to face the first ever year-over-year decline (-3%) in 2024 before rebounding to 4.8% growth in 2025.
What happened. IDC wearables market page (updated 28 Apr 2025): smartwatches declined 4.5% in 2024. -3% against -4.5% is a 1.5-point miss. Sources: web.archive.org.
Source: IDC Forecasts Continued Growth for Wearables But Growth Will Be Uneven Across Product Categories
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IDC’s own figures.
Half right · 50%PCs are forecast to grow 4.3% year over year in 2025 as the end of support for Windows 10 will drive a refresh cycle particularly among commercial buyers.
What happened. IDC preliminary results (12 Jan 2026): 284.7 million traditional PCs in 2025, up 8.1%. +4.3% against +8.1% is a 3.8-point miss. Sources: idc.com.
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IDC’s own figures.
Right · 100%The tablet market is forecast to grow 7.2% year over year as a refresh cycle and project investments are expected to drive the market.
What happened. IDC's Feb 2025 forecast (2025 tablets 143.3m, down 0.8%) puts 2024 at about 144.5m. IDC's Feb 2026 figure (151.9m in 2025, up 5%) gives about 144.7m. 137.9m against about 144.5m is 4.6% under, inside the 5% band. Scored on the stated table level (release-level rule); the +7.2% rate against the actual of about +12.5% would score lower. Sources: idc.com, idc.com.
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IDC’s own figures.
Mostly right · 75%IDC forecasts headset shipments will return to growth later this year with volume growing 7.5% over 2023.
What happened. IDC (25 Mar 2025): AR/VR headset shipments grew 10% in 2024. +7.5% against +10% is a 2.5-point miss. Sources: idc.com.
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IDC’s own figures.
Right · 100%Wearables are poised for additional growth in 2024 as device shipments are forecast reach 559.7 million units, up 10.5% over 2023.
What happened. IDC wearables market page (updated 28 Apr 2025): 534.6 million units in 2024, up 5.4%. 559.7m against 534.6m is 4.7% over, just inside the 5% band. Sources: web.archive.org.
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IDC’s own figures.
Wrong · 0%2024 is shaping up to be a year of recovery as shipments are forecast to surge 44.2% to 9.7 million units.
What happened. IDC (25 Mar 2025): shipments grew 10% in 2024, about 7.4m on the 6.73m 2023 base (IDC changed its categories in mid-2024; the September 2024 base of about 6.8m gives about 7.5m). 9.7m against roughly 7.4-7.5m is about 30% over. Scored on the stated level, as the release-level rule requires; the +44.2% against +10% rate is also far outside the bands. Sources: idc.com.
Source: IDC Forecasts Robust Growth for AR/VR Headset Shipments Fueled by the Rise of Mixed Reality
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IDC’s own figures.
Right · 100%Global shipments forecast to reach 265.4 million units in 2024, up 2.0% from the prior year.
What happened. IDC preliminary results (Jan 2025): 262.7 million traditional PCs in 2024, up 1%. 265.4m against 262.7m is 1.0% over. Sources: idc.com.
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IDC’s own figures.
Wrong · 0%IDC forecasts the market to rebound in 2024, growing 46.8% year over year thanks to new hardware from Meta and ByteDance, the introduction of Apple's Vision Pro.
What happened. IDC (25 Mar 2025): AR/VR headset shipments grew 10% in 2024. +46.8% against +10% is a 36.8-point miss. Sources: idc.com.
Source: Another Slow Year Expected for AR/VR Headsets Before 2024 Rebound, According to IDC
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IDC’s own figures.
Wrong · 0%2023 volumes are shaping up to be only slightly higher than 2017 with 8.5 million headsets expected to ship this year.
What happened. IDC (March 2024): 2023 shipments down 23.5%, about 6.7 million (from the 2024 forecast of 9.7m at +44.2%). 8.5m against about 6.73m is 26% over. Sources: idc.com.
Source: Another Slow Year Expected for AR/VR Headsets Before 2024 Rebound, According to IDC
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IDC’s own figures.
Half right · 50%Gaming PCs are expected to decline 10.5%.
What happened. IDC (March 2024): gaming PC shipments fell 13.2% in 2023 to 44 million. -10.5% against -13.2% is a 2.7-point miss. Sources: idc.com.
Source: Gaming PCs Expected to Struggle While Gaming Monitors Return to Growth in 2023, According to IDC
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IDC’s own figures.
Right · 100%Traditional PC: 2023 shipments 250.8 million, -14.1% (IDC forecast table; release headline: volumes expected to reach 384.8 million in 2023).
What happened. IDC preliminary results (10 Jan 2024): 259.5 million traditional PCs in 2023. 250.8m against 259.5m is 3.4% under, inside the 5% band. Sources: idc.com.
Paraphrased. Source: PC and Tablet Market Face Further Decline Before a Rebound in 2024, According to IDC
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IDC’s own figures.
Wrong · 0%Global shipments are now expected to reach 10.1 million units this year.
What happened. IDC (March 2024): shipments fell 23.5% in 2023. Its 2024 forecast of 9.7m at +44.2% puts 2023 at about 6.7m. 10.1m against about 6.7m is about 50% over. Sources: idc.com.
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IDC’s own figures.
Right · 100%IDC expects 2024 to be a year of recovery with PC and tablet shipments growing 3.6% compared to 2023 and surpassing pre-pandemic levels as total volume reaches 417.7 million units.
What happened. IDC: 262.7m traditional PCs in 2024 (Jan 2025). IDC's Feb 2025 forecast table gives 2025 at 416.3m, up 2.1%, which puts 2024 PCs plus tablets at about 407.7m. 417.7m against about 407.7m is 2.5% over, inside the 5% band. Sources: idc.com, idc.com.
Source: Commercial Buying to Buoy PC and Tablet Shipments in the Coming Years, According to IDC Tracker
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IDC’s own figures.
Mostly right · 75%IDC expects improved economic conditions as well as rising demand from emerging markets to drive renewed growth in 2023 with shipments forecast to reach 539 million units.
What happened. IDC (20 Mar 2024): wearables grew 1.7% in 2023. The same release forecasts 559.7m for 2024, up 10.5%, which puts 2023 at about 506.5m (IDC's April 2025 figures give 507.2m). 539m against roughly 506.5m is 6.4% over, inside the 10% band. Sources: idc.com.
Source: IDC Tracker Expects Wearables Growth to Stall as Macroeconomic Pressures Continue
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IDC’s own figures.
Wrong · 0%Growth is expected to return in 2023 as shipments are forecast to jump 31.5% year over year.
What happened. IDC (March 2024): AR/VR headset shipments fell 23.5% in 2023. Forecast +31.5%, actual -23.5%: wrong sign. Sources: idc.com.
Source: IDC Tracker Finds Upward Pricing Putting Downward Pressure on AR/VR Headsets
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IDC’s own figures.
Half right · 50%Global shipments for AR and VR headsets will decline by 12.8% in 2022, dropping to 9.7 million units.
What happened. IDC (March 2023): AR/VR headset shipments fell 20.9% in 2022 to 8.8 million units. 9.7m against 8.8m is 10.2% over, inside the 15% band. Made with under two weeks of the year left, and it still missed by 10%. Sources: idc.com.
Source: IDC Tracker Finds Upward Pricing Putting Downward Pressure on AR/VR Headsets
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IDC’s own figures.
Mostly wrong · 25%Traditional PCs will see shipments drop 5.6% to 281 million units in 2023 while tablets will decline 6.7% to 148 million units.
What happened. IDC (5 Feb 2024): 128.5 million tablets shipped in 2023, down 20.5% and the lowest since 2011. 148m against 128.5m is 15.2% over: past the 15% band, under 25%. Sources: idc.com.
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IDC’s own figures.
Mostly right · 75%Traditional PCs will see shipments drop 5.6% to 281 million units in 2023 while tablets will decline 6.7% to 148 million units.
What happened. IDC preliminary results (10 Jan 2024): 259.5 million traditional PCs shipped in 2023, down 13.9%. 281m against 259.5m is 8.3% over, inside the 10% band. Sources: idc.com.
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IDC’s own figures.
Right · 100%Global shipments are expected to remain at 897.4 million with major categories such as smart speakers and TVs facing single digit declines.
What happened. IDC (March 2023): smart home device shipments fell 2.6% in 2022 to 871.8 million units. 897.4m against 871.8m is 2.9% over, inside the 5% band. Sources: idc.com.
Source: Smart Home Device Growth Slows Along with Global Economy, Says IDC
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IDC’s own figures.
Mostly right · 75%IDC now forecasts shipments for the full year of 2022 to remain flat at 535.5 million units.
What happened. IDC (March 2023): 492.1 million wearables shipped in 2022, down 7.7%. 535.5m against 492.1m is 8.8% over, inside the 10% band. Sources: idc.com.
Source: Wearables Growth Faces Challenges Through 2022, According to IDC Tracker
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IDC’s own figures.
Right · 100%The forecast for worldwide tablet shipments has been lowered to 158 million units, a 6.2% decline compared to 2021.
What happened. IDC preliminary results (Feb 2023): 162.8 million tablets shipped in 2022, down 3.3%. 158.0m against 162.8m is 2.9% under, inside the 5% band. Sources: idc.com.
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IDC’s own figures.
Mostly right · 75%Global shipments of traditional PCs will fall 8.2% year over year in 2022 to 321.2 million units.
What happened. IDC preliminary results (Jan 2023): 292.3 million traditional PCs shipped in 2022. 321.2m against 292.3m is 9.9% over, just inside the 10% band. Sources: idc.com.
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IDC’s own figures.
Wrong · 0%Headset shipments are forecast to grow 46.9% year over year in 2022.
What happened. IDC's first full-year figure: AR/VR headset shipments fell 20.9% in 2022 to 8.8 million units. Forecast +46.9%, actual -20.9%: wrong sign. Sources: idc.com.
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IDC’s own figures.
Still to fall due8 predictions
- Dec 2026
2026 forecast growth: 33.5%
The Channel · made Mar 2026 · source - Dec 2026
A rebound is expected in 2026 with 87% growth and volume will surpass the peak of 11.2 million units recorded during the pandemic in 2021.
The Channel · made Mar 2025 · source - Dec 2027
Total PC shipments of 284.9 million in 2027 (2023-2027 CAGR 3.1%).
The Channel · made Aug 2023 · source - Dec 2026
The wearables market is forecast to grow at a healthy pace with a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.1% as unit shipments reach 628.3 million by the end of 2026.
The Channel · made Dec 2022 · source - Dec 2026
Sustained growth of more than 30% is also forecast for the next several years culminating in 35.1 million units shipped in 2026.
The Channel · made Dec 2022 · source - Dec 2026
Tablet shipments reach 152.5 million units in 2026 (2021-2026 CAGR -2.0%).
The Channel · made Jun 2022 · source - Dec 2026
Traditional PC shipments reach 339.0 million units in 2026 (2021-2026 CAGR -0.6%).
The Channel · made Jun 2022 · source - Dec 2026
Global shipments of AR/VR headsets surpass 50 million units by the end of the forecast.
The Channel · made Mar 2022 · source