- 47%
- Accuracy
- 30 of 41
- Analyst ranking
- 4
- Predictions scored
- 6
- Still to fall due
Right · 100%major mobile operators started to make commitments to Open RAN during 2024 which will lead to new revenue growth in the 2025-2026 timeframe.
What happened. Dell'Oro's preliminary full-year findings (March 2026) say worldwide Open RAN revenue grew at a double-digit rate in 2025, after a roughly 40% decline between 2022 and 2024. Open RAN revenue returned to growth in 2025, inside the 2025-2026 window; that growth has already happened, so the call can be scored before its deadline. Sources: delloro.com.
Paraphrased. Source: The Open RAN Market Dropped 83% in 2024; It Will Grow Back (Mobile Experts, PR Newswire)
Wrong · 0%AT&T will be deploying dedicated hardware from Ericsson in 2024/2025, and will start deploying cloud RAN in 2026.
What happened. On 26 Feb 2024, a month after the column, AT&T and Ericsson announced they had begun deploying Ericsson Cloud RAN on AT&T's commercial 5G network, with live traffic on Cloud RAN sites south of Dallas (C-band 3700 MHz migrated first). Jay 25 Oct 2026: year call for 2026; AT&T and Ericsson put commercial Cloud RAN sites on air in Feb 2024, two years early, so Wrong. Sources: ericsson.com, about.att.com.
Source: What the AT&T/Ericsson deal really means — Madden (Fierce Network, Industry Voices)
Mostly right · 75%While China will work to meet their government's expectations of 5G development over the next two years, the United States and other countries will experience a decline in 5G investment.
What happened. Worldwide RAN revenue fell by nearly $4bn in 2023, with Dell'Oro citing challenging conditions in North America and Europe, and 2024 was the steepest full-year decline in more than 20 years (down nearly $9bn from the 2021 peak). India, outside China, surged in 2023 before falling back in 2024. US and European 5G investment fell in both years as called, but India's 2023 build-out means 'other countries' did not decline uniformly. Sources: delloro.com, delloro.com.
Paraphrased. Source: RAN Revenue to Decline Before the 6G Wave (Mobile Experts, PR Newswire) · over the next two years = date + 2 years
Mostly wrong · 25%Prediction No. 1: Capex in mobile networks will rise by 7% and RAN revenue will grow by 6% in 2022.
What happened. Dell'Oro's first full-year read said 2022 RAN came in below expectations, and its July 2023 release said RAN revenues flattened out in 2022 (about 0%). No Mobile Experts 2022 RAN growth figure could be found. The mobile capex half of the call has no public actual and is not scored. RAN growth of 6% forecast against a flat (about 0%) market is a miss of about 6 points, inside the 10-point band. Sources: delloro.com, delloro.com.
Source: Wrapping up 2021: 5 predictions for 2022 — Madden (Fierce Wireless, Industry Voices)
Still to fall due6 predictions
- Dec 2028
subscribers will pay more than $6 billion this year. Looking forward, the growth profile for satellite broadband services is strong, and we expect the market to double by 2028.
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Jan 2024 · source - Mar 2028
I'm expecting 128T solutions to come to market at 7 GHz and 256T solutions at 10-13 GHz over the next five years.
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Mar 2023 · source - Dec 2027
By 2027, the industrial private 5G market will drive RAN equipment revenue north of $2 billion.
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Oct 2022 · source - Oct 2027
The private 5G market will grow roughly tenfold in the next five years.
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Oct 2022 · source - Dec 2026
the private LTE/5G market will grow by 19%, accounting for more than $4 billion in 2026.
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Jan 2022 · source - Dec 2026
Heavy investments in Edge Computing equipment spending, both hardware and software, will grow from $780 million this year to about $3 billion in 2026.
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Nov 2021 · source