Kuba Stolarski
- 52%
- Accuracy
- 22 of 41
- Analyst ranking
- 5
- Predictions scored
- 1
- Still to fall due
Wrong · 0%the evolution from simple chatbots to reasoning models to agentic AI will require several orders of magnitude more processing capacity, especially for inferencing.
What happened. IDC has not published a full-year 2025 non-x86 figure. Its quarterly releases put 2025 non-x86 server revenue at about $28.3bn (1Q), $30.2bn (2Q), $36.2bn (3Q) and $55.5bn (4Q), about $150.2bn in all, as Arm-based rack-scale GPU systems took off; Q1 and Q2 are derived from the 2026 releases' growth rates. $82.0bn against about $150.2bn is 45% under, outside the 25% band, so Wrong; direction earns no credit under the 24 Oct 2026 bands. The miss is large enough that quarterly-sum uncertainty does not change the band. Sources: idc.com, idc.com, idc.com, idc.com.
Source: Worldwide Server Market Value Will Reach 366 billion in 2025, Representing a 45% Growth Compared to 2024, according to IDC · 'in 2025'
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IDC’s own figures.
Right · 100%the evolution from simple chatbots to reasoning models to agentic AI will require several orders of magnitude more processing capacity, especially for inferencing.
What happened. IDC has not published a full-year 2025 x86 figure. Its quarterly releases put 2025 x86 server revenue at about $65.8bn (1Q), $79.2bn (2Q), $76.3bn (3Q) and $69.8bn (4Q), about $291.1bn in all; Q1 and Q2 are derived from the 2026 releases' prior-year totals and growth rates. $283.9bn against about $291.1bn is 2.5% under, inside the 5% band. The actual is a sum of quarterly figures, not a published full-year number, so confidence is medium. Sources: idc.com, idc.com, idc.com, idc.com.
Source: Worldwide Server Market Value Will Reach 366 billion in 2025, Representing a 45% Growth Compared to 2024, according to IDC · 'in 2025'
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IDC’s own figures.
Mostly wrong · 25%the evolution from simple chatbots to reasoning models to agentic AI will require several orders of magnitude more processing capacity, especially for inferencing.
What happened. IDC's 12 Mar 2026 release said the server market finished 2025 at a record $444.1bn, up 80.4% on 2024, far above the June 2025 projection as accelerated-server spending kept climbing. $366.0bn against IDC's first published full-year figure of $444.1bn is 17.6% under: outside 15%, inside the 25% band. Sources: idc.com.
Source: Worldwide Server Market Value Will Reach 366 billion in 2025, Representing a 45% Growth Compared to 2024, according to IDC · 'for 2025'
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IDC’s own figures.
Right · 100%Cloud infrastructure spending remains resilient in the face of macroeconomic challenges
What happened. IDC's 29 Mar 2024 release forecast 2024 non-cloud infrastructure spending of $57.6bn, down 1.4% on 2023, which puts 2023 at about $58.4bn. $60.4bn against about $58.4bn is 3.4% away, inside the 5% band. The 2023 actual is derived from IDC's stated 2024 forecast and growth rate. Sources: idc.com.
Source: Compute and Storage Cloud Infrastructure Spending Continued to Grow as Prices Soared in the First Quarter of 2023, According to IDC Tracker · 'For 2023'
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IDC’s own figures.
Half right · 50%Although the overall outlook for the year remains positive, its growth hinges on the expectation that volume will drive it.
What happened. IDC's first full-year view of 2023, in its 29 Mar 2024 release, forecast 2024 cloud infrastructure spending of $129.9bn, up 19.3% on 2023, which puts 2023 at about $108.9bn. Spending beat the forecast as GPU server prices pushed values up. $96.4bn against about $108.9bn (IDC's first full-year view, March 2024) is 11.5% under: outside 10%, inside the 15% band. The 2023 actual is derived from IDC's stated 2024 forecast and growth rate. Sources: idc.com.
Source: Compute and Storage Cloud Infrastructure Spending Continued to Grow as Prices Soared in the First Quarter of 2023, According to IDC Tracker · 'For 2023'
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IDC’s own figures.
Still to fall due1 predictions
- Dec 2027
Cloud infrastructure spending remains resilient in the face of macroeconomic challenges
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Jul 2023 · source