- 78%
- Accuracy
- 2 of 14
- Analyst ranking
- 6
- Predictions scored
- 6
- Still to fall due
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Right · 100%At current rates, 2023 will be the worst year on record, far exceeding 2021 levels, when ransomware came to the forefront after a series of high-profile events.
What happened. Chainalysis found that 2023 ransomware payments passed US$1 billion, "the highest number ever observed", a record year above 2021. Independent data shows 2023 was a record ransomware year. Ball measured publicly reported attacks while Chainalysis measures payments, but both point the same way. Sources: chainalysis.com.
Right · 100%Lengthening sales cycles, maturing hardware refresh programs and prioritization of spending will slow down growth in 2023.
What happened. Canalys reported cybersecurity technology spending up 15.8% in 2022 and 11% in 2023, so growth slowed. Growth fell from 15.8% to 11%, as called. Sources: web.archive.org, itchanneloxygen.com.
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Omdia’s own figures.
Right · 100%Canalys is expecting that the delivery of cyber security services, including consulting, outsourcing, deployment, integration, maintenance and managed services, will grow by 14.1% to $144.3bn this year.
What happened. No direct 2023 services actual found. Canalys' 2024 forecast (services +12.9% to US$163.3bn) implies 2023 services ~US$144.6bn vs implied 2022 base ~US$126.5bn: ~+14.3%. Derived ~14.0-14.3% vs forecast 14.1%: miss under 1pp. Sources: itreseller.ch, omdia.tech.informa.com.
Paraphrased. Source: Bulk of security sales will go through the channel (Computer Weekly MicroScope, 20 Jan 2023), reporting the Canalys 2023 cybersecurity forecast
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Omdia’s own figures.
Right · 100%Shipments of cybersecurity products... will increase by 11.7% to US$79.5 billion in 2023.
What happened. In June 2024 Ball said: "The worldwide cybersecurity technology market grew 11% in 2023." Missed by 0.7 percentage points, within the 1-point band. The 2022 base (US$71.1bn) matches the US$79.5bn target basis. Sources: itchanneloxygen.com.
Paraphrased. Source: Cybersecurity investment to grow by 13% in 2023 (Canalys press release)
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Omdia’s own figures.
Right · 100%Global cybersecurity spending (including enterprise products and services) will increase by 13.2% in 2023... Total spending in 2023 is expected to hit US$223.8 billion in the best-case scenario.
What happened. No direct Canalys full-year 2023 total found. Derived from Canalys' 2024 forecasts (services +12.9% to US$163.3bn, products +10% to US$86.6bn) which imply 2023 services ~US$144.6bn and products ~US$78.7bn, total ~US$223.3bn, vs an implied 2022 base of ~US$197.7bn: ~+12.9%. Derived ~12.9% vs forecast 13.2%: miss ~0.3pp. Total ~US$223bn also matches the US$223.8bn best case. Sources: itreseller.ch, omdia.tech.informa.com, itchanneloxygen.com.
Paraphrased. Source: Cybersecurity investment to grow by 13% in 2023 (Canalys press release)
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Omdia’s own figures.
Right · 100%The move to subscription-based platforms and increased focus on upselling existing accounts will sustain revenue growth for cybersecurity vendors over the next 12 months.
What happened. Vendor revenue kept growing through 2023: Canalys put the cybersecurity technology market up 12.5% in Q1 2023, 11.6% in Q2 2023 and 11% for full-year 2023. Leading vendors (Palo Alto Networks, Fortinet, CrowdStrike, Zscaler) grew strongly. Vendor revenue growth continued at double digits for the 12 months after the call. The call was made while the market was growing 16%, so continued growth was the expected outcome. Sources: web.archive.org, web.archive.org, itchanneloxygen.com.
Source: Cybersecurity market grows 16% despite deteriorating economic conditions (Canalys press release) · date made + 12 months
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Omdia’s own figures.
Still to fall due6 predictions
- Dec 2027
Across all of IT, the partner share is around 65%, and that's been falling steadily over the last five years. It's going to decline next year.
The Channel · made Jul 2026 · source - Dec 2026
Omdia projects cybersecurity spending through AWS, Azure and Google Cloud ... to increase 33.9% to $10.96 billion just this year.
Cybersecurity · made Apr 2026 · source - Dec 2026
Ball predicts that partner-delivered SME IT spending will grow 5.8% this year.
The Channel · made Feb 2026 · source - Dec 2027
Canalys Chief Analyst for cybersecurity Matthew Ball said that cybersecurity total spending will reach $153 billion by 2027 in North America.
Cybersecurity · made Oct 2024 · source - Dec 2024
After a slower start in Q1, we expect growth rates will pick up again in H2.
Cybersecurity · made Jun 2024 · source - Dec 2024
The worldwide cybersecurity technology market grew 11% in 2023 and we are forecasting spending will grow 10% in 2024.
Cybersecurity · made Jun 2024 · source