- 63%
- Accuracy
- 8 of 50
- Analyst ranking
- 27
- Predictions scored
- 8
- Still to fall due
Right · 100%Apple is set to have a record year in 2025 with shipments forecast to cross 247 million units, thanks to the phenomenal success of its latest iPhone 17 series
What happened. IDC's first full-year figure: Apple shipped 247.8m smartphones in 2025. Threshold of 247m scored as a point forecast against 247.8m, 0.3% off. Sources: idc.com.
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IDC’s own figures.
Mostly right · 75%This represents an improvement from the previous forecast of 0.6%, driven by 3.9% growth in iOS this year.
What happened. IDC's first full-year figure: Apple 2025 shipments up 6.3%. 3.9% against 6.3% actual, a 2.4-point miss. Sources: idc.com.
Source: Worldwide Smartphone Market Forecast to Grow 1% in 2025, Driven by Accelerated 3.9% iOS Growth, according to IDC (IDC press release) · this year
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IDC’s own figures.
Half right · 50%globally it is forecast to increase 1.8% thanks to strong growth in the U.S., Apple’s largest market
What happened. IDC's first full-year figure: Apple 2025 shipments up 6.3%. 1.8% against 6.3% actual, a 4.5-point miss. Sources: idc.com.
Source: Worldwide Smartphone Market Forecast to Grow 2.3% in 2025, Led by Android Growth in China and U.S., Amid 10% China Tariffs, According to IDC (IDC press release) · this year
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IDC’s own figures.
Mostly right · 75%Android is expected to grow 40% faster than iOS this year, with 2.5% year-on-year growth
What happened. Android 2025 growth of about 0.9% derived from IDC's Jan 2026 table (total less Apple). 2.5% against about 0.9% actual, a 1.6-point miss. Sources: idc.com.
Source: Worldwide Smartphone Market Forecast to Grow 2.3% in 2025, Led by Android Growth in China and U.S., Amid 10% China Tariffs, According to IDC (IDC press release) · this year
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IDC’s own figures.
Right · 100%Worldwide smartphone shipments are forecast to grow 2.3% year-over-year in 2025 to 1.26 billion units
What happened. IDC's first full-year figure: 1,260.3m units in 2025 (+1.9%). 1.26bn against 1,260.3m, effectively exact. Sources: idc.com.
Source: Worldwide Smartphone Market Forecast to Grow 2.3% in 2025, Led by Android Growth in China and U.S., Amid 10% China Tariffs, According to IDC (IDC press release) · in 2025
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IDC’s own figures.
Right · 100%Looking ahead to 2025, The tides will turn as iOS is expected to grow by 3.1% year-over-year, outpacing Android's forecasted 1.7% growth over the same period.
What happened. IDC's Jan 2026 table: total 1,260.3m less Apple 247.8m gives Android about 1,012.5m in 2025, up about 0.9% on 1,003.2m (derived). 1.7% against about 0.9% actual, a 0.8-point miss. Sources: idc.com.
Source: Worldwide Smartphone Market Forecast to Grow 6.2% in 2024, Fueled by Robust Growth for Android in Emerging Markets and China, According to IDC (IDC press release) · in 2025
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IDC’s own figures.
Half right · 50%Looking ahead to 2025, The tides will turn as iOS is expected to grow by 3.1% year-over-year, outpacing Android's forecasted 1.7% growth over the same period.
What happened. IDC's first full-year figure: Apple 2025 shipments up 6.3%. 3.1% against 6.3% actual, a 3.2-point miss. Sources: idc.com.
Source: Worldwide Smartphone Market Forecast to Grow 6.2% in 2024, Fueled by Robust Growth for Android in Emerging Markets and China, According to IDC (IDC press release) · in 2025
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IDC’s own figures.
Mostly right · 75%IDC expects the iOS trajectory to improve in 2025 with 4% year-over-year growth thanks to Apple Intelligence
What happened. IDC's first full-year figure: Apple shipped 247.8m in 2025, up 6.3%. 4% against Apple's 6.3% actual, a 2.3-point miss. Sources: idc.com.
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IDC’s own figures.
Mostly right · 75%The resulting growth for Android this year will be nine times faster at 7.1% than iOS at 0.8%.
What happened. Android 2024 growth of about 8.3% derived from IDC's Jan 2025 table (total less Apple). 7.1% against about 8.3% actual, a 1.2-point miss. Sources: idc.com.
Source: Worldwide Smartphone Market Forecast to Grow Nearly 6% in 2024, Driven by Stronger Growth for Android in China and Emerging Markets, According to IDC (IDC press release) · this year
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IDC’s own figures.
Wrong · 0%the majority of the growth will be driven by Android, which is expected to grow significantly faster at 4.8% compared to 0.7% for iOS (Apple)
What happened. IDC's first full-year figure: Apple shipped 232.1m in 2024, down 0.9%. Forecast 0.7% growth; Apple fell 0.9%. Only a 1.6-point miss, but the wrong sign makes it Wrong under the rules. Sources: idc.com.
Source: Worldwide Smartphone Shipments Forecast to Recover with 4.0% Growth in 2024, Fueled by Android Growth in Emerging Markets, According to IDC (IDC press release) · this year
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IDC’s own figures.
Half right · 50%the majority of the growth will be driven by Android, which is expected to grow significantly faster at 4.8% compared to 0.7% for iOS (Apple)
What happened. IDC's Jan 2025 table: total 1,238.8m less Apple 232.1m gives Android about 1,006.7m in 2024, up about 8.3% on 929.8m in 2023 (derived). 4.8% against about 8.3% actual, a 3.5-point miss. Sources: idc.com.
Source: Worldwide Smartphone Shipments Forecast to Recover with 4.0% Growth in 2024, Fueled by Android Growth in Emerging Markets, According to IDC (IDC press release) · this year
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IDC’s own figures.
Right · 100%The recovery will continue in 2025 with 2.3% growth expected
What happened. IDC's first full-year figure: 2025 shipments grew 1.9% to 1.26 billion units. 2.3% against 1.9% actual, a 0.4-point miss. Sources: idc.com.
Source: Worldwide Smartphone Shipments Forecast to Recover with 4.0% Growth in 2024, Fueled by Android Growth in Emerging Markets, According to IDC (IDC press release) · in 2025
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IDC’s own figures.
Right · 100%Worldwide smartphone shipments are forecast to grow 4.0% year over year in 2024 to 1.21 billion units
What happened. IDC's first full-year figure: 1,238.8m units in 2024 (+6.4%). 1.21bn against 1,238.8m is 2.3% low. Sources: idc.com.
Source: Worldwide Smartphone Shipments Forecast to Recover with 4.0% Growth in 2024, Fueled by Android Growth in Emerging Markets, According to IDC (IDC press release) · in 2024
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IDC’s own figures.
Half right · 50%iOS remains more resilient to macro challenges with 0.6% growth, achieving a record share of 19.6% this year
What happened. IDC's first full-year figure: Apple 2023 shipments up 3.7%. 0.6% against Apple's 3.7% actual, a 3.1-point miss. Sources: idc.com.
Source: Worldwide Smartphone Shipments Finally Turn the Corner with 7.3% Growth Forecast in Q4 2023 and 3.8% in 2024, According to IDC Mobile Phone Tracker (IDC press release) · this year
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IDC’s own figures.
Half right · 50%The market recovery will continue in 2024 with 3.8% growth expected
What happened. IDC's first full-year figure: 2024 shipments grew 6.4%. 3.8% against 6.4% actual, a 2.6-point miss. Sources: idc.com.
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IDC’s own figures.
Half right · 50%IDC expects iOS shipments to see 1.1% growth in 2023 to reach an all-time high share of 19.9%
What happened. IDC's first full-year figure: Apple shipped 234.6m in 2023, up 3.7%. 1.1% against Apple's 3.7% actual, a 2.6-point miss. Sources: idc.com.
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IDC’s own figures.
Mostly right · 75%IDC expects the market to recover in 2024 with 4.5% year-over-year growth
What happened. IDC's first full-year figure: 2024 shipments grew 6.4%. 4.5% against 6.4% actual, a 1.9-point miss. Sources: idc.com.
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IDC’s own figures.
Mostly right · 75%IDC expects the market to cross into positive territory in the third quarter and see healthy double-digit growth by the holiday quarter.
What happened. IDC's preliminary 4Q23 figure: shipments grew 8.5% year over year to 326.1 million units. Named range 10-19%; actual 8.5% is 1.5 points below the 10% edge. Sources: idc.com.
Source: Smartphone Market woes continue with 14.6% Drop in first quarter this year, According to IDC Tracker (IDC press release) · holiday quarter 2023
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IDC’s own figures.
Wrong · 0%IDC expects the market to cross into positive territory in the third quarter and see healthy double-digit growth by the holiday quarter.
What happened. IDC's preliminary 3Q23 figure: shipments declined 0.1% year over year to 302.8 million units. The call was that the market would return to positive territory in Q3 2023; it came in at -0.1%, so it did not. Sources: idc.com.
Source: Smartphone Market woes continue with 14.6% Drop in first quarter this year, According to IDC Tracker (IDC press release) · third quarter 2023
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IDC’s own figures.
Mostly wrong · 25%the segment is expected to grow to nearly 22 million units this year
What happened. IDC never stated a 2023 foldables total in a release; its Feb 2024 forecast of 25 million in 2024 at 37% growth implies about 18.2 million in 2023. Nearly 22m against about 18.2m implied by IDC is about 21% high (17% on the later 21.4m), inside the 25% band. Sources: idc.com.
Source: Global Smartphone Shipments Expected to Decline 1.1% in 2023 as Recovery Is Pushed Forward into 2024 Amidst Weak Demand, According to IDC Tracker (IDC press release) · this year
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IDC’s own figures.
Right · 100%Real market recovery is not expected to occur until 2024, when IDC expects 5.9% year-over-year growth
What happened. IDC's first full-year figure: 2024 shipments grew 6.4% to 1.24 billion units. 5.9% against 6.4% actual, a 0.5-point miss. Sources: idc.com.
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IDC’s own figures.
Right · 100%shipments of smartphones will decline 1.1% in 2023 to 1.19 billion units
What happened. IDC's first full-year figure: 1,166.9m units in 2023 (-3.2%). 1,192.8m (release table) against 1,166.9m is 2.2% high. Sources: idc.com.
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IDC’s own figures.
Right · 100%expected to increase 70% year over year in 2022 to reach 13.5 million units shipped.
What happened. IDC's foldable forecast of 29 Mar 2023 reported 14.2 million foldables shipped in 2022. 13.5m against 14.2m actual is 4.9% low, inside the 5% band. Sources: idc.com.
Source: Global Smartphone Shipments Expected to Decline 6.5% in 2022 Amidst Global Inflation and Softer Demand, According to IDC (press release, via TelecomTV) · in 2022
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IDC’s own figures.
Right · 100%As a result, the overall Smartphone ASP will decline from $413 in 2022 to $373 in 2026.
What happened. IDC's next forecast release (1 Mar 2023) gave the 2022 smartphone ASP as $415. $413 forecast against $415 actual, 0.5% off. Sources: idc.com.
Source: Global Smartphone Shipments Expected to Decline 6.5% in 2022 Amidst Global Inflation and Softer Demand, According to IDC (press release, via TelecomTV) · 2022 full-year ASP
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IDC’s own figures.
Wrong · 0%Barring any new setbacks, we expect these challenges to ease by the end of this year and the market to recover in 2023 with 5% growth.
What happened. IDC's first full-year figure: 2023 shipments fell 3.2% to 1.17 billion units. Forecast 5% growth; actual -3.2%, an 8.2-point miss (wrong direction too). Sources: idc.com.
Source: Global Smartphone Shipments Expected to Decline 3.5% in 2022, Amidst Global Uncertainty and Weaker Demand, According to IDC (press release) · in 2023
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IDC’s own figures.
Mostly right · 75%shipments of smartphones will decline 3.5% to 1.31 billion units in 2022.
What happened. IDC's first full-year figure: 1,205.5m units in 2022 (-11.3%). 1.31bn against 1,205.5m is 8.7% too high, inside the 10% band. Sources: idc.com.
Source: Global Smartphone Shipments Expected to Decline 3.5% in 2022, Amidst Global Uncertainty and Weaker Demand, According to IDC (press release) · in 2022
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IDC’s own figures.
Wrong · 0%IDC has lowered its growth forecast for 2021 and 2022 from 7,4% and 3,4% to 5,3% and 3% respectively.
What happened. IDC's first full-year figure: 2022 shipments fell 11.3% to 1.21 billion units. Forecast 3% growth; actual was an 11.3% decline, a 14.3-point miss and the wrong sign. Sources: idc.com.
Source: Smartphone shipments to grow despite supply chain constraints (IT-Online, carrying IDC release of 2 Dec 2021) · full year 2022
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IDC’s own figures.
Still to fall due8 predictions
- Dec 2026
Although shipments will witness a record drop, Smartphone ASP is projected to rise 14% to a record $523 this year.
The Channel · made Feb 2026 · source - Dec 2026
Worldwide smartphone shipments are forecast to decline 12.9% year-on-year (YoY) in 2026 to 1.1 billion units
The Channel · made Feb 2026 · source - Dec 2026
Next year will prove exciting for the foldable category with multiple launches pushing the market to 30% YoY growth from just 6% in the prior forecast
The Channel · made Dec 2025 · source - Dec 2026
2026 growth has been revised downward from 1.2% growth to 0.9% decline, due to a combination of component shortages and product cycle adjustments.
The Channel · made Dec 2025 · source - Dec 2028
we expect GenAI smartphones will take their place in premium flagship devices and keep moving down in price tiers to rapidly grow to 70% of the smartphone market by 2028.
The Channel · made Nov 2024 · source - Dec 2027
ASP growth is expected to taper off and gradually decline to $396 by 2027
The Channel · made Nov 2023 · source - Dec 2027
foldable phone shipments will reach 48.1 million units in 2027
The Channel · made Mar 2023 · source - Dec 2026
An updated IDC forecast projects that foldable phone shipments will reach 41.5 million units in 2026
The Channel · made Oct 2022 · source