- 63%
- Accuracy
- 10 of 50
- Analyst ranking
- 8
- Predictions scored
- 9
- Still to fall due
Right · 100%We expect PC demand to pick up and the market to see solid growth in 2025, reflecting delayed Windows 11 PC refresh demand and the increasing business value of AI PCs as use cases mature
What happened. Gartner's preliminary results (20 Jan 2026) put 2025 PC shipments at 270.2 million, up 9.1% from 2024, driven by Windows 11 upgrades and stock-building ahead of memory price rises. The market grew 9.1% in 2025, its strongest year since 2021, with the Windows 11 refresh as the main driver he named. Sources: gartner.com.
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Gartner’s own figures.
Half right · 50%Gartner forecasts AI PC shipments to reach 43 million units in 2024, a 99.8% increase from 2023
What happened. Gartner's Aug 2025 AI PC table gives 2024 AI PC shipments of 38.1 million (15.6% of PCs), against 43.0 million forecast on the same NPU-based definition. 43.0m against Gartner's 38.1m is 12.8% too high, inside the 15% band. Sources: gartner.com.
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Gartner’s own figures.
Mostly right · 75%Gartner estimates 240 million GenAI smartphones and 54.5 million AI PCs will be shipped by the end of 2024
What happened. Gartner's Sep 2025 GenAI smartphone forecast table, the first full-year 2024 figure found, gives 2024 GenAI smartphone units of 260.4 million (basic and premium smartphones with an NPU). 240m against Gartner's later 260.4m is 7.8% too low, inside the 10% band. Gartner's GenAI smartphone definition was reworded between the two releases, so confidence is medium. Sources: gartner.com.
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Gartner’s own figures.
Wrong · 0%Gartner estimates 240 million GenAI smartphones and 54.5 million AI PCs will be shipped by the end of 2024
What happened. Gartner's Aug 2025 AI PC forecast table, the first full-year 2024 figure found, gives 2024 AI PC shipments of 38.1 million (15.6% of PCs). In Sep 2024 Gartner had already cut its 2024 estimate to 43.0 million. 54.5m against Gartner's 38.1m is 43% too high, beyond the 25% band. Gartner narrowed its AI PC definition to NPU-equipped PCs in Sep 2024, which explains some of the gap but not most of it. Sources: gartner.com.
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Gartner’s own figures.
Right · 100%Gartner estimates overall PC shipments will total 250.4 million units in 2024, a 3.5% increase from 2023.
What happened. Gartner's preliminary results (15 Jan 2025) put 2024 PC shipments at 245.3 million in the text (245,361 thousand in the vendor table), up 1.3% from 2023. 250.4m against Gartner's first published 245.4m is 2.1% too high, inside the 5% band. Sources: gartner.com, cxotoday.com.
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Gartner’s own figures.
Half right · 50%PC shipments are estimated to decline 6.8% in 2023, after a 16% decline in 2022
What happened. Gartner's preliminary results (10 Jan 2024) put 2023 PC shipments at 241.8 million, down 14.8% from 2022 and the lowest since 2006. 267.7m against Gartner's first published 241.8m is 10.7% too high, inside the 15% band. The forecast table counts Chromebooks and the tracker may not, but Gartner's own 2022 figures on the two bases were within 0.4%. Sources: gartner.com, pcdandf.com.
Source: Gartner Forecasts Worldwide Device Shipments to Decline 4% in 2023 (Gartner press release)
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Gartner’s own figures.
Right · 100%Overall, global shipments of total devices (PCs, tablets and mobile phones) are on pace to decline 7.6% in 2022
What happened. Gartner's 31 Jan 2023 device forecast release gave 2022 total device shipments (PCs, tablets and mobile phones) of 1,819.3 million, down 11.9%. 1,907m against Gartner's first published 1,819.3m is 4.8% too high, inside the 5% band, although the 7.6% decline understated the 11.9% fall. Sources: gartner.com.
Source: Gartner Forecasts Worldwide PC Shipments to Decline 9.5% in 2022 (Gartner press release)
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Gartner’s own figures.
Mostly right · 75%Worldwide PC shipments are on pace to decline 9.5% in 2022, according to the latest forecast from Gartner, Inc.
What happened. Gartner's preliminary results (11 Jan 2023) put 2022 PC shipments at 286.2 million, down 16.2% from 2021. Gartner's 31 Jan 2023 forecast table gave 287.2 million. The release states a level, so the level governs: 310m against Gartner's first published 286.2m is 8.3% too high, inside the 10% band. The 9.5% decline understated a 16.2% fall. Sources: gartner.com, computerweekly.com.
Source: Gartner Forecasts Worldwide PC Shipments to Decline 9.5% in 2022 (Gartner press release)
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Gartner’s own figures.
Still to fall due9 predictions
- Dec 2028
rising AI PC prices will delay the projected 50% market penetration of AI PCs until 2028
The Channel · made Feb 2026 · source - Dec 2028
Ultimately, we expect the sub-$500 entry-level PC segment will disappear by 2028
The Channel · made Feb 2026 · source - Dec 2026
Soaring memory costs are projected to drive worldwide PC shipments to decline 10.4% and smartphone shipments to drop by 8.4% in 2026, compared to 2025 levels
The Channel · made Feb 2026 · source - Dec 2026
Soaring memory costs are projected to drive worldwide PC shipments to decline 10.4% and smartphone shipments to drop by 8.4% in 2026, compared to 2025 levels
The Channel · made Feb 2026 · source - Dec 2026
end-user spending on GenAI smartphones is expected to total $393.3 billion in 2026, an increase of 32% from 2025
The Channel · made Sep 2025 · source - Dec 2025
Worldwide end-user spending on generative AI (GenAI) smartphones is projected to total $298.2 billion by the end of 2025
The Channel · made Sep 2025 · source - Dec 2026
Gartner analysts forecast AI PC shipments will total 143 million units and are projected to represent 55% of total PC market in 2026
The Channel · made Aug 2025 · source - Dec 2025
Worldwide shipments of AI PCs are projected to total 77.8 million units in 2025.
The Channel · made Aug 2025 · source - Dec 2025
Worldwide shipments of AI PCs are projected to total 114 million units in 2025, an increase of 165.5% from 2024
The Channel · made Sep 2024 · source