Richard Gordon
- 56%
- Accuracy
- 16 of 41
- Analyst ranking
- 17
- Predictions scored
- 1
- Still to fall due
Mostly right · 75%current trends suggest annual growth of 14.2% for 2025, putting the market size at $720.1 billion
What happened. The first published 2025 figure on the WSTS basis (SIA, February 2026) was $791.7bn, up 25.6%. WSTS later put it at $795.6bn, +26.2%. Growth beat even Futurum's upper scenario of 22.6%. The call states both a level and a rate, so the level governs: $720.1bn against the first published $791.7bn is 9.0% off (9.5% against the later $795.6bn), Mostly right on the 5/10/15/25% level bands. On growth alone (14.2% vs 25.6%) it would be Wrong. Sources: semiconductors.org, wsts.org.
Paraphrased. Source: The $1 Trillion Semiconductor Market (Futurum press release, 2Q 2025 State of the Market Report) · calendar 2025
Wrong · 0%In 2024, NAND revenue is projected to increase 60.7% due to a deep supply shortage
What happened. Gartner's preliminary 2024 results put NAND revenue growth at 75.7%. Forecast +60.7% against +75.7%, a 15-point miss on the low side. Sources: gartner.com.
Paraphrased. Source: Gartner Forecasts Worldwide Semiconductor Revenue to Decline 11% in 2023 (Gartner press release) · calendar 2024
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on The Futurum Group’s own figures.
Mostly right · 75%NAND revenue is projected to decline 32.9% to $38.9 billion in 2023
What happened. Gartner reported 2023 NAND flash revenue fell 37.5% to $36.2bn. The call states a level, so the level governs: $38.9bn against Gartner's first published $36.2bn is 7.5% off, Mostly right on the 5/10/15/25% level bands. (Baseline $58.0bn is the 2022 level implied by the release.) Sources: gartner.com.
Paraphrased. Source: Gartner Forecasts Worldwide Semiconductor Revenue to Decline 11% in 2023 (Gartner press release) · calendar 2023
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on The Futurum Group’s own figures.
Wrong · 0%The market will move to undersupply in 2024 and DRAM revenue is set to increase 86.8% as pricing rebounds
What happened. Gartner's preliminary 2024 results put DRAM revenue growth at 75.4%. Forecast +86.8% against +75.4%, an 11.4-point miss, although the undersupply and price rebound were right. Sources: gartner.com.
Paraphrased. Source: Gartner Forecasts Worldwide Semiconductor Revenue to Decline 11% in 2023 (Gartner press release) · calendar 2024
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on The Futurum Group’s own figures.
Right · 100%Gartner analysts foresee DRAM revenue will decline 39.4% in 2023 to total $47.6 billion
What happened. Gartner reported 2023 DRAM revenue fell 38.5% to $48.4bn. The call states a level, so the level governs: $47.6bn against Gartner's first published $48.4bn, 1.7% off. (Baseline $78.6bn is the 2022 level implied by the release.) Sources: gartner.com.
Paraphrased. Source: Gartner Forecasts Worldwide Semiconductor Revenue to Decline 11% in 2023 (Gartner press release) · calendar 2023
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on The Futurum Group’s own figures.
Mostly right · 75%it is on pace to rebound in 2024 with a 70% increase
What happened. Gartner's first published 2024 results (preliminary, 3 Feb 2025) put memory revenue growth at 71.8% (73.4% in the April 2025 final results). Growth-rate call: +70% against Gartner's first published +71.8%, a 1.8-point miss. Sources: gartner.com, gartner.com.
Paraphrased. Source: Gartner Forecasts Worldwide Semiconductor Revenue to Decline 11% in 2023 (Gartner press release) · calendar 2024
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on The Futurum Group’s own figures.
Right · 100%The memory market is projected to total $92.3 billion, a decline of 35.5% in 2023
What happened. Gartner's first published 2023 results (preliminary, 16 Jan 2024) said memory revenue fell 37%, with DRAM at $48.4bn and NAND at $36.2bn; no memory total was given. A 37% fall from the $143.1bn 2022 base implied in the April 2023 release gives about $90.2bn. The call states a level, so the level governs: $92.3bn against about $90.2bn (derived), 2.3% off. Even against DRAM plus NAND alone ($84.6bn, a floor for total memory) it is within 10%. Sources: gartner.com.
Paraphrased. Source: Gartner Forecasts Worldwide Semiconductor Revenue to Decline 11% in 2023 (Gartner press release) · calendar 2023
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on The Futurum Group’s own figures.
Right · 100%Semiconductor Revenue Forecast, Worldwide ... 2024 Revenue 630.9 ... Growth (%) 18.5
What happened. Gartner's first published 2024 figure (preliminary, 3 Feb 2025) was $626bn, up 18.1%. Its April 2025 final restated this to $655.9bn, +21.0%. WSTS reported +19.7% to $630.5bn. The release table states a level, so the level governs: $630.9bn against Gartner's first published $626bn, 0.8% off. Sources: gartner.com, gartner.com, futurumgroup.com.
Paraphrased. Source: Gartner Forecasts Worldwide Semiconductor Revenue to Decline 11% in 2023 (Gartner press release) · calendar 2024
Right · 100%Global semiconductor revenue is projected to decline 11.2% in 2023 ... forecast to total $532 billion in 2023
What happened. Gartner's preliminary 2023 result was $533bn, down 11.1%. WSTS reported about -8.2% ($526.9bn) on its own basis. The call states a level, so the level governs: $532bn against Gartner's first published $533bn (January 2024 preliminary), 0.2% off. (Growth -11.2% against -11.1% agrees; against WSTS's own basis it would be a 3-point miss.) Sources: gartner.com, futurumgroup.com.
Paraphrased. Source: Gartner Forecasts Worldwide Semiconductor Revenue to Decline 11% in 2023 (Gartner press release) · calendar 2023
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on The Futurum Group’s own figures.
Wrong · 0%NAND revenue is projected to increase 4.4% to $68.8 billion in 2022, but it is on pace to decline 13.7% in 2023 to $59.4 billion
What happened. Gartner reported 2023 NAND flash revenue fell 37.5% to $36.2bn. The call states a level, so the level governs: $59.4bn against Gartner's first published $36.2bn (January 2024 preliminary) is 64% too high, Wrong on the level bands (25% or more off is Wrong; direction earns nothing). Sources: gartner.com.
Paraphrased. Source: Gartner Forecasts Worldwide Semiconductor Revenue Growth to Decline 3.6% in 2023 (Gartner press release) · calendar 2023
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on The Futurum Group’s own figures.
Wrong · 0%DRAM revenue to decrease 2.6% to reach $90.5 billion in 2022 and will further decline 18% in 2023, to total $74.2 billion
What happened. Gartner reported 2023 DRAM revenue fell 38.5% to $48.4bn. The call states a level, so the level governs: $74.2bn against Gartner's first published $48.4bn (January 2024 preliminary) is 53% too high, Wrong on the level bands (25% or more off is Wrong; direction earns nothing). Sources: gartner.com.
Paraphrased. Source: Gartner Forecasts Worldwide Semiconductor Revenue Growth to Decline 3.6% in 2023 (Gartner press release) · calendar 2023
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on The Futurum Group’s own figures.
Wrong · 0%the memory market will remain flat in 2022 and is forecast to decline 16.2% in revenue in 2023
What happened. Gartner reported memory revenue fell 37% in 2023, one of the worst declines on record. Forecast -16.2% against -37%, a miss of about 21 points. Sources: gartner.com.
Paraphrased. Source: Gartner Forecasts Worldwide Semiconductor Revenue Growth to Decline 3.6% in 2023 (Gartner press release) · calendar 2023
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on The Futurum Group’s own figures.
Half right · 50%Global semiconductor revenue is projected to decline 3.6% in 2023
What happened. Gartner's preliminary 2023 result was $533bn, down 11.1%. WSTS reported a decline of about 8.2% to $526.9bn. Release level governs: the quote gives -3.6%, but the same release states 2023 revenue of $596bn. $596bn against Gartner's first published $533bn is 11.8% too high, Half right on the level bands. (On growth, -3.6% vs -11.1% is a 7.5-point miss.) Sources: gartner.com, futurumgroup.com.
Paraphrased. Source: Gartner Forecasts Worldwide Semiconductor Revenue Growth to Decline 3.6% in 2023 (Gartner press release) · calendar 2023
Right · 100%In 2022, the market is on pace to grow 4% and total $618 billion
What happened. Gartner's first published 2022 figure (preliminary, 17 Jan 2023) was $601.7bn, up 1.1% from $595bn (the April 2023 final restated it to $599.6bn, +0.2%). The call states a level, so the level governs: $618bn against Gartner's first published $601.7bn, 2.7% off. Sources: gartner.com, gartner.com.
Paraphrased. Source: Gartner Forecasts Worldwide Semiconductor Revenue Growth to Decline 3.6% in 2023 (Gartner press release) · calendar 2022
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on The Futurum Group’s own figures.
Right · 100%It could easily be a lot worse than that, but it will probably bottom out next year and then start to recover in 2024
What happened. Semiconductor revenue hit its low in 2023 (Gartner -11.1%, WSTS about -8%) and recovered strongly in 2024 (Gartner +18.1% preliminary, +21% final; WSTS +19.7% to $630.5bn). The market bottomed in 2023 and recovered in 2024, the timing he gave. Sources: gartner.com, gartner.com, futurumgroup.com.
Source: Gartner forecasts chip sales growth to slow down in 2022, fall next year (Reuters via IBTimes UK)
Mostly wrong · 25%the global semiconductor market is entering a period of weakness, which will persist through 2023 when semiconductor revenue is projected to decline 2.5%
What happened. Gartner's first published 2023 figure (preliminary, 16 Jan 2024) was $533bn, down 11.1% (later restated to $542.1bn). WSTS (independent) reported 2023 sales of $526.9bn, down about 8.2%. Release level governs: the quote gives -2.5%, but the release table states 2023 revenue of $623.1bn. $623.1bn against Gartner's first published $533bn is 16.9% too high, Mostly wrong on the level bands. (On growth, -2.5% vs -11.1% is an 8.6-point miss, also Mostly wrong.) Sources: gartner.com, futurumgroup.com.
Source: Gartner Forecasts Worldwide Semiconductor Revenue Growth to Slow to 7% in 2022 (Gartner press release) · forecast for calendar 2023
Mostly right · 75%Global semiconductor revenue is projected to grow 7.4% in 2022, down from 2021 growth of 26.3%
What happened. Gartner's first published 2022 figure (preliminary, 17 Jan 2023) was $601.7bn, up 1.1% on 2021; its April 2023 final restated this to $599.6bn, +0.2%. WSTS, on its own basis, put 2022 growth at about 3%. Release level governs: the quote gives 7.4% growth, but the same release states the 2022 level ($639.2bn in the text and Table 1). $639.2bn against Gartner's first published $601.7bn is 6.2% off, Mostly right on the 5/10/15/25% level bands. (On growth alone, 7.4% vs 1.1% would be a 6.3-point miss.) Sources: gartner.com, gartner.com.
Paraphrased. Source: Gartner Forecasts Worldwide Semiconductor Revenue Growth to Slow to 7% in 2022 (Gartner press release) · forecast for calendar 2022
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on The Futurum Group’s own figures.
Still to fall due1 predictions
- Dec 2032
A long-term annual growth rate (AGR) of 6% suggests a market size of $1 trillion by 2032 is likely.
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made May 2025 · source