Stefan Pongratz
- 60%
- Accuracy
- 10 of 41
- Analyst ranking
- 16
- Predictions scored
- 7
- Still to fall due
Half right · 50%The analyst team is collectively forecasting global telecom equipment revenues across the six programs to stay flat.
What happened. Telecom equipment revenue rose 4% in 2025, helped by cloud-provider spending (Dell'Oro, March 2026); Pongratz said it was stronger than the flat outlook. Flat against +4% is a 4-point miss. Sources: delloro.com.
Source: Worldwide Telecom Equipment Down 11 Percent in 2024 (Pongratz blog, Dell'Oro)
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Dell'Oro Group’s own figures.
Half right · 50%we forecast private wireless RAN revenues to grow by over 20% in 2025, driven by robust industrial adoption.
What happened. Dell'Oro's first full-year figure (April 2026) said private wireless RAN revenue increased 16% in 2025, with growth decelerating sharply in the second half. Threshold scored as a point forecast at 20%: a 4-point miss. Sources: delloro.com.
Source: What to Expect from RAN in 2025 (Pongratz blog, Dell'Oro)
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Dell'Oro Group’s own figures.
Right · 100%RAN revenues are projected to hold fairly steady globally and advance by 5% to 10%, excluding China.
What happened. Worldwide RAN was stable in 2025 (Dell'Oro, February 2026). The ex-China half of the call has no published full-year figure, so only the global part is scored. Steady forecast, stable outcome. Sources: delloro.com, delloro.com.
Source: What to Expect from RAN in 2025 (Pongratz blog, Dell'Oro)
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Dell'Oro Group’s own figures.
Right · 100%The worldwide RAN market is expected to advance at a low single-digit rate in 2025, underpinned by growth in North America and APAC, Excluding China.
What happened. Dell'Oro's February 2026 release said the RAN market ended 2025 with "stable revenue trends for the full year"; the 1Q 2026 release said quarterly growth had stayed within -4% to +4% for five quarters. No exact full-year percentage was published. Low single digits is 1-3%; from the 1% edge, a flat year is about a 1-point miss. Sources: delloro.com, delloro.com.
Source: RAN Market Down 10 to 20 percent 1Q-3Q24 (Dell'Oro press release)
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Dell'Oro Group’s own figures.
Half right · 50%Growth projections have been revised slightly downward over the short term. Global RAN is now projected to decline 5 to 8 percent in 2024.
What happened. Pongratz's first full-year release (March 2025) called 2024 "the steepest full-year decline in more than 20 years", with RAN down nearly $9 B from the 2021 peak; his January 2025 blog said RAN was declining "at a double-digit rate" and down about 20% versus 2022 over two years. No exact 2024 percentage was published; about -11 to -12% follows from those figures. From the -8% edge, a double-digit decline of roughly 11-12% is a 3-4 point miss. The exact figure is not public, so the verdict could be one step either way. Sources: delloro.com, delloro.com, delloro.com.
Source: RAN Market Still a Disaster (Dell'Oro press release)
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Dell'Oro Group’s own figures.
Mostly right · 75%Worldwide capex is now projected to decline at a mid-single-digit rate in 2024
What happened. Dell'Oro's April 2025 release said worldwide telecom capex declined 8% in 2024. Mid single digits is 4-6%; from the -6% edge, -8% is a 2-point miss. Sources: delloro.com.
Source: Telecom Capex Declined in 2023 as Operators Scale Back on 5G (Dell'Oro press release)
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Dell'Oro Group’s own figures.
Mostly wrong · 25%The analyst team is collectively forecasting global telecom equipment revenues to contract 0 to -5% in 2024.
What happened. Telecom equipment revenue declined 11% in 2024, the steepest annual fall in more than 20 years (Dell'Oro, March 2025). Scored from the -5% edge against -11%: a 6-point miss. Sources: delloro.com.
Source: Worldwide Telecom Equipment Market Slumps in 2023 (Pongratz blog, Dell'Oro)
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Dell'Oro Group’s own figures.
Wrong · 0%Collectively the analyst team is forecasting the overall telecom equipment market to increase 1% in 2023 and record a sixth consecutive year of growth.
What happened. Dell'Oro's first full-year figure (March 2024) said worldwide telecom equipment revenue declined 5% in 2023, "performing worse than expected". +1% against -5% is a 6-point miss. Sources: delloro.com.
Source: Worldwide Telecom Equipment up 3 Percent in 2022 (Pongratz blog, Dell'Oro)
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Dell'Oro Group’s own figures.
Mostly wrong · 25%global RAN revenues expected to be flat in 2023 as surging investments in India is offset by more challenging comparisons in North America and China.
What happened. RAN revenue fell by nearly $4 B in 2023 (Dell'Oro, February 2024), roughly 9-10% on a $40-45 B base; the July 2023 forecast had already conceded that the market was "done expanding". Flat against roughly -9 to -10% is a 9-10 point miss, at the edge of Mostly wrong; if the exact decline exceeded 10% it would be Wrong. Sources: delloro.com, delloro.com, delloro.com.
Source: RAN Comes in Below Expectations in 2022 (Dell'Oro press release)
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Dell'Oro Group’s own figures.
Mostly wrong · 25%Global RAN revenues are now projected to decline at a low-single-digit rate in 2023
What happened. Dell'Oro's full-year 2023 release reported "a global decrease of nearly $4 billion in RAN revenues" in 2023, on a market of roughly $40-45 B, i.e. a decline of about 9-10%. Dell'Oro did not publish an exact percentage. Low single digits is 1-3%; scored from the -3% edge against roughly -9 to -10%, a miss of about 6-7 points. Sources: delloro.com, delloro.com, delloro.com.
Source: RAN Declines Again (Dell'Oro press release)
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Dell'Oro Group’s own figures.
Right · 100%Total Open RAN revenues are now expected to account for 3 percent to 5 percent of the global 2022 RAN market.
What happened. Pongratz's January 2023 blog said Open RAN reached "a mid-single digit share of the full-year capex" in 2022, and the July 2023 release said Open RAN already comprised "a mid-single digit share" of RAN. No exact share was published. A mid-single-digit share (4-6%) overlaps the 3-5% range; scored Right under the named-range rule, though the exact share is not public. Sources: delloro.com, delloro.com.
Source: Open RAN Revenue Surged in 1Q 2022 (Dell'Oro press release)
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Dell'Oro Group’s own figures.
Right · 100%Global capex growth is expected to moderate from 9 percent in 2021 to 3 percent in 2022, before tapering off in 2023 and 2024.
What happened. Dell'Oro's April 2023 release said worldwide telecom capex increased at a low-single-digit rate in 2022, "slightly lower than the 3 percent increase we initially projected". No exact figure was published; 2.5% stands in for "slightly lower than 3%". The firm itself says the outcome was slightly below 3%, so the miss is under 1 point. Sources: delloro.com.
Source: Worldwide Telecom Capex Growth to Taper Off in 2023 (Dell'Oro press release)
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Dell'Oro Group’s own figures.
Right · 100%global telecom equipment growth is expected to moderate from 7% in 2021 to 4% in 2022.
What happened. Telecom equipment revenue rose 3% in 2022 (Dell'Oro, March 2023); Pongratz noted it was slightly below the 4% projected going into the year. Missed by 1 point. Sources: delloro.com.
Source: Key Takeaways – 2021 Total Telecom Equipment Market (Pongratz blog, Dell'Oro)
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Dell'Oro Group’s own figures.
Half right · 50%Relative near-term projections have been revised upward – total RAN revenues are now projected to grow 5 percent in 2022.
What happened. RAN revenues "flattened out in 2022" per Dell'Oro's July 2023 release; the February 2023 full-year release said 2022 came in below expectations. Pongratz's January 2023 blog conceded Europe and APAC ex-China tracked below the mid-single-digit projection. +5% against a flat year is about 5 points off, the edge of the Half right band; if 2022 was slightly negative it would fall to Mostly wrong. Sources: delloro.com, delloro.com, delloro.com.
Source: RAN Growth Slows in 4Q 2021 – Still Grows More Than 10 Percent in 2021 (Dell'Oro press release)
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Dell'Oro Group’s own figures.
Right · 100%the overall telecom equipment market is now projected to advance 2% in 2022, down from 8% in 2021.
What happened. Dell'Oro's first full-year figure (March 2023) put worldwide telecom equipment revenue across its six programs up 3% in 2022. Missed by 1 point. Sources: delloro.com.
Source: Key Takeaways – 3Q21 Total Telecom Equipment Market (Pongratz blog, Dell'Oro)
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Dell'Oro Group’s own figures.
Half right · 50%Following two consecutive years of double-digit growth, total RAN revenues are projected to advance 3 percent in 2022.
What happened. Dell'Oro's first full-year read said 2022 RAN came in below expectations, and its July 2023 forecast release said RAN revenues "flattened out in 2022". No exact percentage was published; flat is taken as about 0%. Forecast +3% against a flat outcome is about 3 points off, inside the 5-point Half right band (it stays Half right even if 2022 was down 1-2%). Sources: delloro.com, delloro.com.
Source: Supply Chain Is Impacting but Not Derailing RAN Momentum (Dell'Oro press release)
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Dell'Oro Group’s own figures.
Still to fall due7 predictions
- Dec 2026
Worldwide telecom capex is projected to decline 2 percent in 2026 and grow at a 1 percent CAGR through 2030.
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Apr 2026 · source - Dec 2026
Looking ahead, the analyst team expects the positive momentum to extend into 2026. Global telecom equipment revenue across the six programs is projected to grow 2% to 4% in 2026
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Mar 2026 · source - Dec 2026
private wireless campus network RAN revenue is forecast to surpass $1 B.
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Dec 2025 · source - Dec 2029
AI RAN to Top $10 Billion by 2029
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Jul 2025 · source - Dec 2025
we are forecasting Open RAN revenues to grow in 2025, accounting for 5% to 10% of total RAN revenues
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Jan 2025 · source - Dec 2026
the radio access network (RAN) market remains on track for a fifth consecutive year of growth in 2022 and global revenues are projected to stay above $40 B by 2026.
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Jul 2022 · source - Dec 2026
Open RAN revenues are expected to account for around 15 percent of the overall 2G-5G RAN market by 2026
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Jan 2022 · source