Vivek Arya
- 47%
- Accuracy
- 39 of 50
- Analyst ranking
- 10
- Predictions scored
- 7
- Still to fall due
Mostly right · 75%Arya noted that his $105 billion WFE view for calendar 2025 still holds
What happened. SEMI put 2025 WFE at $115.7bn (+11%) in its Dec 2025 year-end report; SEMI's April 2026 full-year billings data had wafer processing equipment up 12%, consistent with that. The dollar level governs: $105bn against $115.7bn is about 9.2% low, inside the 10% band. BofA's WFE base may differ slightly from SEMI's; the same actual is used for Stacy Rasgon's 2025 WFE call. Sources: semi.org, evertiq.com.
Paraphrased. Source: DeepSeek Sell-off Offers Opportunities On Semicaps, Analyst Bumps Up Price Forecasts For KLA, Nova And Camtek (Benzinga, 28 Jan 2025) · calendar 2025 call
Mostly wrong · 25%core semiconductors, excluding memory, expected to grow by 13%
What happened. WSTS's first published 2025 figures (SIA, Feb 2026): total $791.7bn on a 2024 base of $630.5bn; memory $223.1bn (+34.8%, so 2024 memory about $165.5bn). Non-memory rose from about $465.0bn to $568.6bn, about +22.3%. 13% against about 22.3% derived from WSTS figures is 9.3 points out, inside the 10-point band. Sources: semiconductors.org.
Paraphrased. Source: 'In AI we trust': Bank of America highlights 6 key chip stocks to own for 2025 (Investing.com) · 2025 full-year call
Wrong · 0%BofA anticipates memory sales to rise by 20% in 2025
What happened. WSTS's first published 2025 figures (SIA, Feb 2026) had memory up 34.8% to $223.1bn. 20% against 34.8% is 14.8 points out, beyond the 10-point band. Sources: semiconductors.org.
Paraphrased. Source: 'In AI we trust': Bank of America highlights 6 key chip stocks to own for 2025 (Investing.com) · 2025 full-year call
Mostly right · 75%The bank forecasts a 15% increase in semiconductor industry sales to $725 billion in 2025.
What happened. WSTS's first published 2025 figure (SIA, 6 Feb 2026) was $791.7bn, up 25.6%. The dollar level governs: $725bn against $791.7bn is about 8.4% low, inside the 10% band. On growth (15% vs 25.6%) it would have scored Wrong. Sources: semiconductors.org.
Paraphrased. Source: 'In AI we trust': Bank of America highlights 6 key chip stocks to own for 2025 (Investing.com) · 2025 full-year call
Mostly right · 75%Specific areas of strength ... with non-memory chip sales growing about 8%.
What happened. WSTS's first published 2024 figures (SIA, Feb 2025): total $627.6bn and memory $165.1bn (+78.9%, so 2023 memory about $92.3bn) on a 2023 total of $526.8bn. Non-memory therefore rose from about $434.5bn to $462.5bn, about +6.4%. About 8% against about 6.4% derived from WSTS figures is 1.6 points out, inside the 2.5-point band. Sources: semiconductors.org.
Paraphrased. Source: Can AMD's Profits Grow Nearly 50x in Just Two Years? Here's What Bank of America Expects (TipRanks) · 2024 full-year call
Wrong · 0%Specific areas of strength, says the analyst, will be found in artificial intelligence, in memory chips (with sales growing 48%)
What happened. WSTS's first published 2024 figures (SIA, Feb 2025) had memory up 78.9% to $165.1bn. 48% against 78.9% is about 31 points out, beyond the 10-point band. Sources: semiconductors.org.
Paraphrased. Source: Can AMD's Profits Grow Nearly 50x in Just Two Years? Here's What Bank of America Expects (TipRanks) · 2024 full-year call
Half right · 50%Heading into 2024, Arya forecasts an average of 15% sales growth for the year
What happened. WSTS's first published 2024 figure (SIA, Feb 2025) was $627.6bn, up 19.1% on 2023. Only a growth rate was stated. 15% against 19.1% is 4.1 points out, inside the 5-point band. Sources: semiconductors.org.
Paraphrased. Source: Can AMD's Profits Grow Nearly 50x in Just Two Years? Here's What Bank of America Expects (TipRanks) · 2024 full-year call
Right · 100%We assume a soft-landing (nonmemory semi sales down [less than 5% year over year], also confirmed by recent Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) results/outlook)
What happened. WSTS (via SIA, Feb 2024) put 2023 sales at $526.8bn with memory at $92.3bn, so non-memory was about $434.5bn, against about $444.1bn in 2022 ($574.1bn total less about $130bn memory, SIA Feb 2023): a fall of about 2.2%. 'Down less than 5%' is a range (0 to -5%). Non-memory sales fell about 2.2%, inside the range, so Right; forecast_value is set to the actual. Sources: semiconductors.org, semiconductors.org.
Source: Why Semiconductor Stocks Taiwan Semiconductor, Nvidia and Skyworks Rallied Today (Motley Fool, quoting Arya's BofA note) · 2023 full-year call
Wrong · 0%Arya said he remains comfortable with his 13% and 8% year-over-year industry growth forecast for 2022 and 2023
What happened. WSTS's first published 2023 figure (SIA, Feb 2024) was $526.8bn, down 8.2% from $574.1bn in 2022. He called 8% growth; sales fell 8.2%. Wrong sign and 16.2 points out. Sources: semiconductors.org.
Paraphrased. Source: Bank of America thinks these chip stocks can do well despite concerns (CNBC) · 2023 full-year call
Mostly wrong · 25%The firm forecasts 13% growth in chip industry sales after a calendar year of 24% year-over-year growth, Arya said.
What happened. WSTS's first published 2022 figure (SIA, Feb 2023) was growth of 3.2%, to a record of about $574bn, after a sharp second-half slowdown. Only a growth rate was stated. 13% against 3.2% is 9.8 points out, just inside the 10-point band. Sources: semiconductors.org.
Paraphrased. Source: Here are Bank of America's favorite chip stocks for 2022 (CNBC) · 2022 full-year call
Still to fall due7 predictions
- Dec 2028
The firm also raised its wafer fabrication equipment spending outlook sharply, now expecting annual investment to reach $250 billion by 2028
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Jun 2026 · source - Dec 2030
The bank expects the total semiconductor market to hit the $2 trillion milestone by 2030.
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Apr 2026 · source - Dec 2026
He hiked its 2026 revenue target to $1.3 trillion — a $300 billion leap from the estimate the bank provided just four months ago.
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Apr 2026 · source - Dec 2026
With a projected industry-wide spending of $135 billion in 2026, escalating by 23% year-over-year, the momentum could spill over into 2027, Arya noted.
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Feb 2026 · source - Dec 2030
BofA estimates that the total addressable market for AI data center systems will reach over $1.2 trillion by 2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of 38%.
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Dec 2025 · source - Dec 2026
Arya forecast a 30% year-over-year surge in global semiconductor sales that will finally push the sector past a historic $1 trillion annual sales milestone in 2026.
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Dec 2025 · source - Dec 2027
Data center 'accelerators' ... are going to be a $100 billion market in 2024, says Arya, growing to anywhere from $150 billion to $400 billion by 2027.
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Dec 2023 · source