Who called it right?
Tech analysts forecast markets for a living. We track the calls they make in public, check each one against what actually happened and rank them on how often they get it right
- 0
- Analysts ranked
- 2
- Predictions scored
- 5
- Still to fall due
- –
- Average accuracy
Five years ▾
Marketplaces have gained significant momentum in recent years... and we expect this growth to continue by as much as 84% annually to 2025.Alex Smith · made May 2023 · The 84% CAGR was Canalys's 2021-2025 path ($4.1bn in 2021 to $45bn+ in 2025). Scored on The Futurum Group’s own figures.
We expect the applications market to continue to expand in 2024.Steve Hall · made Oct 2023 · ISG reported 2024 SaaS ACV up 4.6 percent to $15.8 billion, after a 3 percent fall in 2023. Scored on ISG’s own figures.
How we scoreShow
1. Find the call
Public predictions from the last five years in VETTDD’s categories: reports, press releases, keynotes, interviews. Each one is quoted and linked.
2. Wait for the deadline
A prediction is only scored once its date has passed. Until then it’s listed as pending.
3. Check what happened
Against independent evidence where it exists: company results, filings, other firms’ data. Where none exists, we score on the analyst’s firm’s own figures and put a caveat on the verdict. Each verdict links its sources.
4. Weigh it
Calls looking more than two years ahead count one and a half. Calls made under six months out, or when the outcome was close to certain, count half. Trend calls with nothing to measure count half again, so nobody climbs the table by being vague or stating the obvious.
Growth-rate forecasts are scored on how many percentage points they missed by: within 1 point is Right, 2.5 Mostly right, 5 Half right, 10 Mostly wrong; further out, or growth called when the market fell, is Wrong. Other number forecasts are scored on how far off they were: within 10% of the actual figure is Right, within 25% Mostly right; further out, Half right if it moved the right way, otherwise Wrong. Small samples: until an analyst has many verdicts, their accuracy is pulled towards the table average, as if they had 5 more average calls, so a handful of lucky calls can’t top the table. No independent evidence: the verdict is scored on the analyst’s firm’s own figures and carries a caveat. Analysts can reply to any verdict.