- 66%
- Accuracy
- 3 of 8
- Analyst ranking
- 3
- Predictions scored
- 11
- Still to fall due
Mostly right · 75%Nearly a third of marketplace purchases will flow through channel partners by 2025.
What happened. By late 2025 Omdia said over half of third-party marketplace spend still bypasses partners, implying a partner share somewhat below half; at Canalys Forum EMEA 2025 the firm said partners were expected to deliver more than half of a US$51bn marketplace. Either way the partner share in 2025 sat at or above a third. The call that partners would take a meaningful share against the 'marketplaces cut out the channel' consensus held, and the share likely exceeded a third; only the firm's own estimates exist and they are imprecise. Sources: techpartner.news, dutchitchannel.nl.
Paraphrased. Source: Channel will defy critics and trouser a third of cloud marketplace spend - Canalys (CRN UK)
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Omdia’s own figures.
Half right · 50%By 2025 they will account for approximately US$25 billion, 59 per cent CAGR from 2020.
What happened. Omdia (which absorbed Canalys) estimates third-party spending through the AWS, Google and Microsoft marketplaces at about US$45bn in 2025, up from US$30bn in 2024. Canalys itself had already doubled the 2025 forecast to over US$45bn by January 2023, with a colleague admitting "We under-called it". The direction (rapid marketplace growth) was right, but the specific number was about 45% too low; actual 2025 sales came in near US$45bn against a US$25bn call. Sources: techpartner.news, techblog.comsoc.org.
Paraphrased. Source: Channel will defy critics and trouser a third of cloud marketplace spend - Canalys (CRN UK)
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Omdia’s own figures.
Still to fall due6 predictions
- Dec 2027
That's set to drop to 63% in 2027, he said.
The Channel · made Jul 2026 · source - Dec 2026
Some 65% of tech spending will flow through the channel in 2026, down from close to 70% in 2025, Edwards said.
The Channel · made Jul 2026 · source - Dec 2030
Partners will facilitate nearly 60% of all marketplace transactions by 2030.
The Channel · made Oct 2025 · source - Dec 2030
Hyperscaler cloud marketplace enterprise software sales will rise from US$30 billion in 2024 to US$163 billion by 2030.
The Channel · made Oct 2025 · source - Dec 2027
More than 50% of marketplace sales will be done via channel partners by 2027.
The Channel · made Aug 2024 · source - Dec 2028
Enterprise software sales through hyperscaler marketplaces will reach US$85 billion by 2028, up from US$16 billion in 2023.
The Channel · made Aug 2024 · source