- 82%
- Accuracy
- 1 of 8
- Analyst ranking
- 9
- Predictions scored
- 39
- Still to fall due
Right · 100%The APAC tech market will hit $1.5 trillion in 2025 (growing 8%) and 72.1% will go to, through, and with partners in the region.
What happened. Omdia's Jan 2026 outlook has APAC at 27% of a $6.07tn market in 2026, growing 9%. That implies about $1.50tn for 2025. No 2025 partner share for APAC was published in what was found (Omdia gives 68.6% for 2026). The firm's later figures imply the $1.5tn headline almost exactly. The 72.1% partner share could not be checked. Sources: omdia.tech.informa.com, linkedin.com.
Source: LinkedIn post, 2024-12-04
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Omdia’s own figures.
Mostly right · 75%the US federal channel opportunity will reach a record high $60.1 billion in 2024.
What happened. Omdia later said the federal channel opportunity grew 2.4% in 2025 to $75.2bn, which implies about $73.4bn for 2024, a record. The scope seems to have been widened since the $60.1bn forecast; no 2024 figure on the original basis was found. The 2024 record happened, and the firm's later figure is about 18% above the forecast. That is within the 25% band, but a scope change probably explains the gap. Sources: omdia.tech.informa.com.
Source: LinkedIn post, 2024-02-12
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Omdia’s own figures.
Right · 100%By 2025, cloud marketplaces will grow to more than $45 billion, representing an 84% CAGR. ... 'The marketplace route to market is on fire and cannot be ignored by any channel leader.
What happened. Omdia (Oct 2025) put 2024 hyperscaler marketplace sales at $30B and gave 2025 category figures (infrastructure software $10.5B, DevOps $9.1B, business apps $9.1B) as 63% of total spend, which implies roughly $45-46B for 2025. But Canalys's own Aug 2024 release had put 2023 at only $16B, so the 2025 figure lands on target only after Canalys/Omdia restated the market's size. No independent tally exists; AWS, Microsoft and Google do not disclose marketplace GMV. The firm's own 2025 figure works out at about $45B, so on its own numbers the call landed. It only lands because the base was restated from $16B (2023) to $30B (2024), and nobody outside Canalys/Omdia measures this market. Sources: omdia.tech.informa.com, intelligentcio.com, channeldrive.in.
Source: Canalys: Cloud marketplace sales to be > $45 billion by 2025 (IEEE ComSoc Technology Blog)
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Omdia’s own figures.
Right · 100%By 2025 AWS Marketplace will become a top 10 distributor in EMEA, as marketplace sales of third-party technologies, sold via channel partners, accelerate rapidly.
What happened. In March 2025 McBain wrote on LinkedIn that Canalys's marketplace forecast had 'made AWS a Top 10 distributor in only a few years', ranking it alongside TD SYNNEX, Ingram Micro, Arrow and ALSO. In Sept 2024 he said on a podcast that it had already happened. AWS does not disclose marketplace sales, and no independent distributor ranking that includes AWS was found. The only evidence says it happened before the deadline, and it comes from McBain. Canalys's own marketplace sizing makes it plausible, but no independent check exists. Sources: itchanneloxygen.com, theultimatepartner.com.
Source: Canalys Forum, Highlights Blog (Ultima, archived)
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Omdia’s own figures.
Still to fall due11 predictions
- Dec 2031
The valuations are considerably off their business model and you will see them start to sell off these divisions/subsidiaries by 2031 - back to the channel at a deflated cost.
The Channel · made Sep 2026 · source - Dec 2026
The Canadian tech market will reach $130.3 billion in 2026, growing 7.1% year-on-year, the fastest pace since 2017.
The Channel · made May 2026 · source - Dec 2026
Partner share of IT spending 'projected to drop to ~66.7% by 2026
The Channel · made Apr 2026 · source - Dec 2026
SMB IT spending represents 39.2% of the total addressable IT market in 2026. Spending is projected to rise 6.7% in 2026
The Channel · made Jan 2026 · source - Dec 2035
it ended up being 100% correct - not only for the past decade, but likely the next decade as well.
The Channel · made Dec 2025 · source - Dec 2028
With 261 companies driving US$7.46 billion in revenue in 2024, this ecosystem is rapidly evolving towards a projected US$13.48 billion by 2028
The Channel · made Jan 2025 · source - Dec 2025
System Integrators which have historically represented 62.5% of revenue will shrink slightly to below 60% in 2025. Services led partners (including MSPs) will see their share top 30%
The Channel · made Nov 2024 · source - Dec 2027
we are predicting that more than 50% of sales via Amazon Web Services (AWS), Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud marketplaces will flow through the channel by 2027!
The Channel · made Aug 2024 · source - Dec 2028
Enterprise software sales through hyperscaler cloud marketplaces ... are projected to reach US$85 billion by 2028, rising from US$16 billion in 2023.
The Channel · made Aug 2024 · source - Dec 2027
We're calling 11% growth year on year going forward.
The Channel · made Jan 2024 · source - Dec 2025
Canalys estimates that by 2025, hyperscalers will rely on partners for nearly a third of their marketplace transactions
The Channel · made Jul 2022 · source