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Jay McBain
Analyst Index · The Channel

Jay McBain

Chief analyst, US, Omdia (was Canalys, Forrester)
82%
Accuracy
1 of 8
Analyst ranking
9
Predictions scored
39
Still to fall due
7 right1 mostly right1 mostly wrong
Scored predictions3
Right · 100%Cloud infrastructure will reach $383 billion this yearInfrastructure & Telecoms · made Jul 2025 · due Dec 2025

What happened. Canalys/Omdia's quarterly figures for 2025 ($90.9bn, $95.3bn, $102.6bn, $110.9bn) add up to about $400bn. Synergy Research, which is independent, put 2025 at $419bn. The firm's own quarters sum to about $400bn, 4% above the forecast. Synergy's $419bn on a broader definition also confirms the market went past $383bn. Sources: ictbusiness.biz, telecoms.com, omdia.tech.informa.com, intelligentcio.com, srgresearch.com.

Source: LinkedIn post, 2025-07-01

Specific · counts 1Forecast $383bn · actual $399.7bnHigh confidence
Right · 100%the notebook and desktop segments should finish 2025 at 267.3 million units at a 4.4% growth rate.Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Jun 2025 · due Dec 2025

What happened. Omdia counted 278.7 million desktops and notebooks shipped in 2025, up 9.1% (first published as 279.5m, +9.2%). IDC, on a similar scope, counted 284.7 million, up 8.1%. The unit forecast was about 4% under the firm's own outturn, inside the 10% band. The growth rate was understated by about half (4.4% v 9%), as Windows 10 end-of-life and memory-price pull-forward lifted late 2025. Sources: omdia.tech.informa.com, idc.com.

Source: LinkedIn post, 2025-06-26

Specific · counts 1Forecast 267.3 million units · actual 278.7 million unitsHigh confidence
Right · 100%Public cloud will surpass $300 billion in revenue in next 12 months and still managing to grow at 20%.Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Jul 2024 · due Jul 2025

What happened. Canalys put 2024 cloud infrastructure services spending at $321.3bn, up about 20%, and quarterly spend kept growing above 20% through mid-2025. Cloud revenue passed $300bn at about 20% growth within the window, on his firm's own tracker. Sources: dcpostmea.com, telecoms.com.

Source: LinkedIn post, 2024-07-08 · next 12 months

Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Omdia’s own figures.

Specific · near-certain · counts 0.5Forecast $300bn · actual $321.3bnHigh confidence
Still to fall due10 predictions
  1. Dec 2027Infrastructure (servers, storage, networking, power, cooling) drops by 30%.Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Oct 2026 · source
  2. Dec 2027The semiconductor industry (chips, manufacturing, supply chain) will also drop in half.Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Oct 2026 · source
  3. Dec 2030Omdia forecasts more than $6.4 trillion in data center investment through 2030Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Feb 2026 · source
  4. Sep 2030AI infrastructure, expected at $7 trillion over next 5 years, 81% will land in large enterprise and government.Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Sep 2025 · source
  5. Dec 2028Omdia's five-year capex growth outlook is 18.3% CAGR reaching $753 billion in 2028.Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Jun 2025 · source
  6. Dec 20272026 will also be positive and 2027 is looking at a negative dip.Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Jun 2025 · source
  7. Dec 2027With Nvidia set to join the PC CPU market, ARM-based processors will account for 1 in 4 laptops shipped by 2027.Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Oct 2024 · source
  8. Dec 2027By 2027, the tech industry will be worth $6.3 trillion. In the next decade, spending will have doubled from this year's total to exceed $10 trillion.Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Oct 2024 · source
  9. Dec 2028we are predicting a 19.7% (CAGR) growth in global edge ICT services thru 2028.Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Aug 2024 · source
  10. Dec 2028Fueled by AI, It will grow to $590 billion by 2028.Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Jul 2024 · source
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