- 68%
- Accuracy
- 2 of 8
- Analyst ranking
- 6
- Predictions scored
- 4
- Still to fall due
Half right · 50%Channelnomics doesn't anticipate that channel budgets will increase this year, or in 2025
What happened. Walsh reported in May 2025 that nearly half of vendors in Channelnomics' survey had increased budgets for partner training, incentive programmes and automation infrastructure. No independent data on 2025 channel budgets was found. Nearly half of vendors raised budgets in key areas, against the call, while the rest did not; the only evidence is his own firm's survey. Sources: channelnomics.com.
Source: Return to Growth Is Here, but There's a Catch
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Channelnomics’s own figures.
Mostly right · 75%Channelnomics expects the second half of 2024 to be better for vendors and partners, but the full-year results will still be flat relative to 2023.
What happened. IDC/GTDC North America distribution revenue ended 2024 down 1.1% (later described as flat), with Q4 2024 returning to growth (+2.3%). Gartner's total IT spending grew about 7.5% in 2024, mainly AI/data-centre led. Channel revenue was flat with a better second half, as called, though partner-delivered spending overall did grow. Sources: idc.com, idc.com.
Mostly right · 75%Vendors cut deep into channel budgets in 2023, and will continue to do so in 2024.
What happened. In June 2024 Walsh wrote that 'Channelnomics research finds that most vendors have been cutting channel spending' and that channel chiefs could not fund initiatives because of weak sales in 2023 and early 2024. No independent data on 2024 vendor channel budgets was found. His firm's own mid-2024 research says most vendors kept cutting channel spending, which fits the call, but the only evidence is Channelnomics' and it covers only part of the year. Sources: channelnomics.com.
Source: Interest Rates Hang Over Tech Sector
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Channelnomics’s own figures.
Mostly right · 75%Tech vendors and their partners will continue to feel pressure on sales and prices through the first half of 2024, with the market rebounding in late 2024 and into 2025.
What happened. Gartner put 2024 IT spending growth at 7.7% and 2025 growth at about 10.3-10.7%, the fastest in years. Channelnomics' own partner confidence index stayed weak through most of 2024 and began recovering in Q4 2024. The late-2024 turn and stronger 2025 happened as called; headline 2024 spending was firmer than 'continued pressure' implies, though that was driven largely by AI data-centre buying rather than partner sales. Sources: crn.in, gartner.com, channelnomics.com.
Paraphrased. Source: U.S. GDP Surges, So Why Does Everything Feel Terrible?
Still to fall due3 predictions
- Dec 2026
The European channel is expected to grow between 5% and 7%
The Channel · made Jul 2026 · source - Dec 2026
Channelnomics expects the North American channel to grow between 6% and 8% in 2026
The Channel · made Jul 2026 · source - Dec 2026
Channelnomics forecasts global channel growth of 5% to 7% in 2026
The Channel · made Jan 2026 · source