- 58%
- Accuracy
- 21 of 50
- Analyst ranking
- 5
- Predictions scored
- 10
- Still to fall due
All categories ▾
Right · 100%HBM revenue is expected to increase by more than 284% in 2024 ... reaching $12.3 billion
What happened. Gartner's preliminary 2024 results (3 Feb 2025) put HBM at 13.6% of 2024 DRAM revenue and said 2025 HBM would rise 66.3% to $19.8bn, which implies about $11.9bn for 2024. No direct 2024 dollar figure was published. $12.3bn against an implied $11.9bn is about 3.4% off, inside the 5% band. The actual is derived from Gartner's own numbers, so confidence is medium. Sources: cxotoday.com.
Source: Gartner Forecasts Worldwide Semiconductor Revenue to Grow 14% in 2025 (Gartner press release, 28 Oct 2024) · calendar 2024
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Gartner’s own figures.
Wrong · 0%HBM revenue is expected to increase by more than 284% in 2024 and 70% in 2025, reaching $12.3 billion and $21 billion, respectively.
What happened. Gartner's preliminary 2025 results (12 Jan 2026) said HBM was 23% of the DRAM market in 2025, surpassing $30 billion in sales. $30bn is used as the actual (a floor). $21bn against more than $30bn is at least 30% under, past the 25% band; any higher actual only widens the miss. Sources: cxotoday.com, gartner.com.
Source: Gartner Forecasts Worldwide Semiconductor Revenue to Grow 14% in 2025 (Gartner press release, 28 Oct 2024) · calendar 2025
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Gartner’s own figures.
Mostly right · 75%The worldwide memory revenue market is forecast to record 20.5% growth in 2025, to total $196.3 billion.
What happened. The first public Gartner figure for 2025 memory revenue was $216.3bn (Table 1 of the April 2026 forecast release; the January 2026 results release gave no memory total). Gartner's August 2026 release restated it to $220.1bn. $196.3bn against $216.3bn is 9.2% under, inside the 10% band. Sources: smartsolutionsworld.com, gartner.com.
Source: Gartner Forecasts Worldwide Semiconductor Revenue to Grow 14% in 2025 (Gartner press release, 28 Oct 2024) · calendar 2025
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Gartner’s own figures.
Right · 100%In 2024, the market is forecast to grow 19% and reach $630 billion.
What happened. Gartner's first published 2024 figure (preliminary, 3 Feb 2025) was $626.0bn, up 18.1% (the April 2025 final restated it to $655.9bn). $629.8bn against the first published $626.0bn is 0.6% off. Made with two months of the year left, so it carries the short-horizon weight. Sources: cxotoday.com.
Source: Gartner Forecasts Worldwide Semiconductor Revenue to Grow 14% in 2025 (Gartner press release, 28 Oct 2024) · calendar 2024
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Gartner’s own figures.
Mostly right · 75%Global semiconductor revenue is projected to grow 14% in 2025 to total $717 billion
What happened. Gartner's first published 2025 figure (preliminary, 12 Jan 2026) was $793.4bn, up 21.0% from $655.9bn. The release states a level, so the level governs: $716.7bn against $793.4bn is 9.7% under, inside the 10% band. On growth alone (13.8% vs 21%) it would be Mostly wrong. Sources: gartner.com, cxotoday.com.
Source: Gartner Forecasts Worldwide Semiconductor Revenue to Grow 14% in 2025 (Gartner press release, 28 Oct 2024) · calendar 2025
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on Gartner’s own figures.
Still to fall due10 predictions
- Dec 2026
AI semiconductors are expected to account for approximately 30% of total semiconductor revenue in 2026
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Apr 2026 · source - Dec 2026
Gartner estimates DRAM and NAND flash annual prices in 2026 will increase by 125% and 234%, respectively
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Apr 2026 · source - Dec 2026
Gartner estimates DRAM and NAND flash annual prices in 2026 will increase by 125% and 234%, respectively
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Apr 2026 · source - Dec 2026
Gartner forecasts semiconductor revenue will grow 64% in 2026, with memory revenue expected to increase threefold amid memflation ... Memory 2026 633.3
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Apr 2026 · source - Dec 2027
Table 1. Semiconductor Revenue Forecast, Worldwide, 2025-2027: Total Market 2027 1,554.5
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Apr 2026 · source - Dec 2026
Global semiconductor revenue is projected to exceed $1.3 trillion in 2026 ... Table 1: Total Market 2026 1,320.2
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Apr 2026 · source - Dec 2029
AI semiconductors are set to represent over 50% of total semiconductor sales by 2029.
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Jan 2026 · source - Dec 2026
This domination is set to rise as AI infrastructure spending is forecast to surpass $1.3 trillion in 2026.
Artificial Intelligence · made Jan 2026 · source - Dec 2025
NAND flash revenue is forecast to total $75.5 billion in 2025, up 12% from 2024.
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Oct 2024 · source - Dec 2025
Overall, DRAM revenue is expected to total $115.6 billion in 2025, up from $90.1 billion in 2024.
Infrastructure & Telecoms · made Oct 2024 · source