- 61%
- Accuracy
- 14 of 50
- Analyst ranking
- 8
- Predictions scored
- 8
- Still to fall due
Wrong · 0%foldable smartphones continue to grow rapidly with year-over-year growth of 37% expected and shipments reaching 25 million in 2024.
What happened. No standalone IDC first published 2024 foldables total was found. IDC's August 2025 forecast release says foldable growth was 4% in 2024; its December 2025 release (2025 at 20.6m, +10%) implies about 18.7m in 2024, against the 25m called. Scored on growth because no first published 2024 unit level was found: 37% called vs 4% actual, a 33-point miss. On the implied level (25m vs about 18.7m, 34% high) it is also Wrong. Sources: idc.com, idc.com.
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IDC’s own figures.
Right · 100%smartphone shipments are expected to reach 1.20 billion units in 2024, growing 2.8% year over year
What happened. IDC's first full-year 2024 figure (13 January 2025) put shipments at 1,238.8 million, up 6.4%. 1,200m forecast vs 1,238.8m actual: 3.1% low, inside the 5% band (the growth rate missed by 3.6 points, but the level governs). Sources: idc.com.
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IDC’s own figures.
Right · 100%The silver lining in all of this is that the market contractions appear to have bottomed out and growth is expected in 2024.
What happened. IDC's first full-year 2024 figure (January 2025) put traditional PC shipments at 262.7 million, up 1% on 2023. A directional call for growth in 2024; the market grew 1%. Sources: idc.com.
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IDC’s own figures.
Right · 100%Worldwide Smartphone Forecast by OS, 2023 ... iOS 233.5 [million, 2023 shipments], 1.3% [growth]
What happened. IDC's first full-year 2023 figures (15 January 2024) put Apple at 234.6 million shipments. 233.5m forecast vs 234.6m actual: 0.5% low. Sources: idc.com.
Paraphrased. Source: Global Smartphone Shipments Continue to be Impacted by Slowed Demand and Setbacks in China, According to IDC Tracker
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IDC’s own figures.
Right · 100%iOS unit share will reach 18.7% (the highest of any forecast year)
What happened. IDC's first full-year 2022 figures (25 January 2023) gave Apple 226.4m of 1,205.5m shipments, an 18.8% share. 18.7% forecast vs 18.8% actual: within 1% of the actual level. Sources: idc.com.
Source: Global Smartphone Shipments Continue to be Impacted by Slowed Demand and Setbacks in China, According to IDC Tracker · the 2022 share discussed in the release
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IDC’s own figures.
Mostly right · 75%While a recovery of 2.8% is still anticipated in 2023 ... Total 1270.3 [million, 2023 shipments]
What happened. IDC's first published full-year figure (15 January 2024) put 2023 shipments at 1,166.9 million, down 3.2%. 1,270.3m forecast vs 1,166.9m actual: 8.9% high, inside the 10% band. On the growth rate (2.8% vs -3.2%) it would be Mostly wrong, but the release states the level. Sources: idc.com.
Paraphrased. Source: Global Smartphone Shipments Continue to be Impacted by Slowed Demand and Setbacks in China, According to IDC Tracker
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IDC’s own figures.
Right · 100%IDC expects smartphone shipment volumes to total 1.24 billion units in 2022.
What happened. IDC's first published full-year figure (25 January 2023) put 2022 shipments at 1,205.5 million, down 11.3%. 1,240m forecast vs 1,205.5m actual: 2.9% high, inside the 5% band. Sources: idc.com.
Paraphrased. Source: Global Smartphone Shipments Continue to be Impacted by Slowed Demand and Setbacks in China, According to IDC Tracker
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IDC’s own figures.
Wrong · 0%We expect to see supply and logistical challenges continue through the first half of this year, but we currently believe we'll return to growth in the second quarter and second half of 2022.
What happened. Smartphone shipments did not return to growth in 2022. IDC reported Q3 2022 down 9.7% (the fifth straight quarterly decline, so Q2 2022 also fell), Q4 2022 down 18.3% and the full year down 11.3% to 1.21 billion. He called a return to growth in Q2 and the second half of 2022; every quarter from Q2 to Q4 2022 declined year on year. Sources: idc.com, idc.com.
Source: Worldwide SmartPhone Shipments In Q4 Fall, Despite Overall Growth In 2021 (ChannelNews, carrying IDC's Q4 2021 smartphone release) · second half of 2022
Caveat. No independent evidence available. Scored on IDC’s own figures.
Still to fall due8 predictions
- Dec 2026
and tablets expanding 3.9% to $66.8 billion in 2026.
The Channel · made Mar 2026 · source - Dec 2026
Higher average selling prices (ASPs) are expected to lift total market value, with PCs growing 1.6% to $274 billion
The Channel · made Mar 2026 · source - Dec 2026
Tablet shipments are similarly forecast to fall 7.6% this year.
The Channel · made Mar 2026 · source - Dec 2026
global PC shipments are now expected to decline 11.3% in 2026
The Channel · made Mar 2026 · source - Dec 2028
smartphone shipments are expected to reach 1.20 billion units in 2024, growing 2.8% year over year, followed by growth in the low single digits through 2028.
The Channel · made Feb 2024 · source - Dec 2024
IDC forecasts 170 million next-gen AI smartphones will ship in 2024, representing almost 15% of the total smartphone market and surpassing even AI PCs.
The Channel · made Feb 2024 · source - Dec 2026
Worldwide Smartphone Forecast by OS, 2023 and 2026 ... Total ... 1393.2 [million, 2026 shipments]
The Channel · made Dec 2022 · source - Dec 2026
5G continues to build out globally and will account for just over half of smartphones shipped worldwide in 2022, rising to 80% by 2026.
The Channel · made Dec 2022 · source