Who called it right?
Tech analysts forecast markets for a living. We track the calls they make in public, check each one against what actually happened and rank them on how often they get it right
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- Analysts ranked
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- Predictions scored
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- Still to fall due
- 32%
- Average accuracy
Alex SmithVP and practice lead, ecosystems, channels and marketplaces, The Futurum Group (was Canalys)32%accuracy from 3 scored predictionsSee the full record →
ISG is forecasting 5 percent ACV growth for managed services in 2023.Steve Hall · made Jan 2023 · Managed services ACV grew 5 percent to a record $40.7 billion in 2023. Scored on ISG’s own figures.
We predict the hyperscalers will need to increase their prices in Europe by 30% to account for rising energy costs.Alex Smith · made Nov 2022 · Microsoft raised euro cloud prices by 11% (pound 9%, Swedish krona 15%) from 1 April 2023, citing currency alignment…
ISG is forecasting annual ACV growth of 17 percent for the XaaS market in 2023, lower than in prior years.Steve Hall · made Jan 2023 · XaaS ACV fell 12.5 percent to $53.6 billion in 2023, its first annual decline. Scored on ISG’s own figures.
How we scoreShow
1. Find the call
Public predictions from the last five years in VETTDD’s categories: reports, press releases, keynotes, interviews. Each one is quoted and linked.
2. Wait for the deadline
A prediction is only scored once its date has passed. Until then it’s listed as pending.
3. Check what happened
Against independent evidence where it exists: company results, filings, other firms’ data. Where none exists, we score on the analyst’s firm’s own figures and put a caveat on the verdict. Each verdict links its sources.
4. Weigh it
Calls looking more than two years ahead count one and a half. Calls made under six months out, or when the outcome was close to certain, count half. Trend calls with nothing to measure count half again, so nobody climbs the table by being vague or stating the obvious.
Growth-rate forecasts are scored on how many percentage points they missed by: within 1 point is Right, 2.5 Mostly right, 5 Half right, 10 Mostly wrong; further out, or growth called when the market fell, is Wrong. Other number forecasts are scored on how far off they were: within 10% of the actual figure is Right, within 25% Mostly right; further out, Half right if it moved the right way, otherwise Wrong. Small samples: until an analyst has many verdicts, their accuracy is pulled towards the table average, as if they had 5 more average calls, so a handful of lucky calls can’t top the table. No independent evidence: the verdict is scored on the analyst’s firm’s own figures and carries a caveat. Analysts can reply to any verdict.